Sunday Times 2
Plight of small countries in the shadows of Big Powers
View(s):Small countries sharing land or sea boundaries with big powers are often accused by their powerful neighbours of being sources of destabilization — political and economic — although the boot is really on the other foot.
The small and weak nations in the 20th and 21st centuries have more or less adapted themselves to the pragmatic anonymous advice: Be not too far away from thy powerful neighbour lest he forgets thee and not too close to him lest he grabs thee.
There are rare exceptions to the rule such as Ukraine, right now defying the super nuclear power Russia; Cuba, led by Fidel Castro and backed by the superpower, the Soviet Union, during the Cold War defying the other superpower United States; and militarised Japan invading the Chinese mainland during World War II.
Lanka’s fortune or misfortune has been the strategic position it occupies in the Indian Ocean. Way back in 1802, Pitt the Younger, the then English Prime Minister speaking about the strategic value of Ceylon in relation to India, told parliament that its acquisition was ‘to us the most valuable position on the globe as giving to our Indian empire a security it had not enjoyed since its first establishment’. Historians point out that the importance of Ceylon was especially linked to the Trincomalee harbour which was a link in Britain’s sea communications with the Far East and Australia.
More than 220 years later, Trincomalee is still as valuable to the powers that matter.
On India becoming independent, Indian political leaders and geopolitical strategists contrary to the Gandhian philosophy of Ahimsa (non-violence) and unabashedly declared that the Indian Ocean which had been a virtual British lake should become India’s Ocean. Grinding poverty, over-population, and lack of resources and technology thwarted their ambitions but now, in the 21st Century, India claims to have produced its own ‘Indigenous’ aircraft carrier, submarines and other grades of naval vessels and is projecting naval power into the Indian Ocean and pressurising island nations such as the Maldives and Sri Lanka to protect its geopolitical interests.
The clash between the two regional powers of Asia was witnessed a few months ago. India made strong calls on the Sri Lanka government not to permit a Chinese Vessel, Yuan Wang 5 into Hambantota harbour, claiming it to be a spy ship that could monitor India’s security installations while the Chinese strongly denied the allegation, saying it was a scientific research vessel.
Sri Lanka was between the devil and the deep blue sea on this issue with the economy near bankruptcy owing billions of dollars to China on loans while negotiations were on with India for loans of the same magnitude to keep the economy afloat.
Sri Lanka was rescued this time by its giant neighbour India with loans amounting to an estimated 5 billion USD being disbursed, although it came at a pace not fast enough to prevent the escalating crisis due to a shortage of essential commodities required for day-to-day living that led to the president and the government being thrown out by non-violent protests.
Nonetheless, India was the only country that extended such substantial relief to — at least — stave off the crisis temporarily. The assistance from New Delhi was in accordance with India’s declared ‘neighbours first’ policy’ – a priority for assistance to India’s neighbouring countries.
This neighbourly concern, however, was not evident too much in the past few decades apart from military interventions which are being interpreted by some as assistance to help its neighbours in saving democratic governance while others see the hand of Indian hegemony. The failure of SAARC is attributed by some analysts as being caused not only because of Indo-Pakistan confrontations but also by the neighbouring countries ganging up against India because of fouling up of bilateral relations with India.
What would have happened if India did not move to rescue Lanka, those grateful to India ask. Others pose the question as to whether the Modi government with its claims to a booming economy, aspiration to achieve big power status, and its proclaimed ‘Neighbours first policy’ could have looked the other way.
President Ranil Wickremesinghe appears to be depending heavily on India to rescue Lanka from the financial crisis. India — despite its refusal to condemn Russia for the invasion of Ukraine and purchase of oil from Russia ignoring western sanctions and requests against President Putin and Russia — still appears to be the proxy power of the West in South Asia. According to reports, India is playing a valuable role for Lanka in getting the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility of US$ 2.9 billion.
President Wickremesinghe speaking in Jaffna on Thai Pongal Day said: “We hope to fully implement the 13th Amendment of the Constitution.”
This amendment Sri Lankans know is a creation of India’s Foreign Ministry and forced into the Sri Lankan Constitution with the arrival of the Indian Peace Keeping Force which took President J.R. Jayewardene, completely unawares. It was rejected by the LTTE which went to war with the Indian peacekeepers and Tamil political parties — whatever they may say now — went along with the LTTE. The Sri Lankan resistance to it began with the attempt by a naval rating to clobber Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi on his head with his rifle butt during the Guard of Honour presented to him.
Thirty-Seven years have elapsed since this New Delhi legislative product was introduced into our constitution but only parts of it could be implemented, indicating the resistance of the Sri Lankan people to it.
President Wickremesinghe had not expanded on his statement about this amendment beyond saying that it will be implemented fully while touching upon some related issues.
Certainly, the fundamental rights of the Tamils destroyed by Sinhala chauvinism from the mid-fifties have to be restored but shouldn’t it be enacted in a new constitution which almost all political leaders say is a necessity?
Wickremesinghe is devoid of a mandate from the people or support from his own party in parliament. What his uncle couldn’t do with a 5/6th majority, his attempt to do with only a single seat is fantasy, to say the least.
Massive Indian investments are also envisioned in the building of a new Sri Lanka. Foreign investments are an accepted mode of the rapid economic regeneration of countries and examples are numerous. But every investment has to be also from a national perspective if a small country like ours is to survive as an independent nation.
The current debacle has been caused by reckless borrowing having no consideration to generation of income to pay back the billions of dollars for Chinese loans and the sale of international sovereign bonds. The public is not aware of the terms of borrowing Indian loans, the total is now estimated to be USD 5 billion.
Agreements on the oil tank farm in Trincomalee and the Trincomalee harbour – which are national assets – are to be signed with India, in addition to the leasing of islands off the Northern coasts for generation of wind power after cancelling agreements signed with China for these projects. Indian investments in harbours, including the Colombo Port, are of strategic interest particularly because of Indian objections to the use of them by others such as China.
India is churning out hundreds of millionaires and also some billionaires while Lanka is producing millions of unemployed youth and poverty-stricken peasants.
If the future leaders of Sri Lanka do not keep track of the sale of national assets, one day Lankans may get up to find that the whole country has been sold out.
(The writer is a forme editor of The Sunday Island, the Island and consultant editor of the Sunday Leader. He can be contacted at gamma.weerakoon@gmail.com)