Maha rice season to be hit by drought
Farmers in Sri Lanka are likely to face a difficult year in 2024 as the Maha cultivating season is expected to be hit by a drought as predicted by scientists and weather experts likely to impact the country’s economy once again.
With global scientists predicting the warmest year in 2024 Sri Lanka’s Maha cultivating season is expected to be adversely impacted due to the onset of a drought due to the El Nino effect.
“What is likely to happen is a weakening of the North East monsoon” which is expected to start around late November, Peradeniya University Senior Crop Scientist Prof. Buddhi Marambe said.
This would mean a drop in the rainfall that could result in a drought condition in 2024 contributing to adverse effects on cultivation during the main Maha season.
The global weather body the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has stated that global temperatures are set to rise with the onset of El Nino causing disruptive weather and climate conditions.
The WMO stated in its latest update this week dated July 4 “forecasts that there is a 90 per cent probability of the El Niño event continuing during the second half of 2023. It is expected to be at least of moderate strength”.
Sri Lanka has already experience the El Nino effect that occurs once in 3-7 years with the severe drought in 2016 and the warmest year in 1998 that led to a huge economic loss in that year.
The Maha season that starts in October will see the impact of the El Nino effect as that is expected to be felt by late November of early December, Prof. Marambe said.
If the predictions made this week are likely to hold good then authorities need to work out plans and strategise ways of lowering the impact on the cultivating season by ensuring sufficient storage of water in the reservoirs, he noted.
In this respect, the Department of Agriculture and the Ministry of Agriculture need to work out a plan with the support of the Meteorological Department and ensure that they are ready to face this drought condition in the next Maha season, it was pointed out.
In a drought situation it would be drought tolerant crop species that have a better chance to do well compared to others, Prof. Marambe said. In fact, Sri Lanka already has two paddy varieties that are drought tolerant as well, he said.
But at this stage it is imperative that there should not be a panic situation and the plan drawn out should be worked out based on data made available, he explained.
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