Valuing our freedom
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“Mata wena adahasak thiyenne. Mama vishwasa karanawa api Nidahas Dinaya samaranna-oney kiyala. Magey tuk-tuk eke mama jathika kodiya pradarshanaya karanawa (I have a different view. I believe we should celebrate Independence Day. I will fly a national flag on my tuk-tuk),” said Aldoris, the choon-paan karaya, who was on this Thursday morning selling traditional sweetmeats like kavum and kokis.
“Mae avuruddeth jeevithey harima amarui, ihala yana badu mila nisa. Goda denek kana kaema godak adu karala thiyenne (It’s another struggle this year with rising prices and families forced to cut back on food requirements),” said Mabel Rasthiyadu.
“Ena avurudde mae kaleta thathve mokakda danne nae. Aluth aanduwak thiyevi da manda (I wonder what the situation will be at the same time next year. Will there be a new government in power),” asked Serapina.
As the country marks independence on Sunday, Sri Lankans are struggling with rising prices, cost of living and curtailment in freedom for the second year in succession. A country that was once praised by Singapore as having a stronger economy and a better standard of living, is now forced to learn from Singapore and other advanced nations to grow its economy and move out of a debilitating debt crisis.
Advocata’s Bath Curry Indicator (BCI) which is a price-index that tracks the monthly changes in the retail price of a basket of commonly consumed food items, said there was a year-on-year increase in prices of 33.72 per cent in December 2023, compared to the same corresponding period of 2022. It said in real terms, this means that an average family, who spent Rs. 1,825.85 weekly on a packet of rice and curry in December 2022 had to pay Rs. 2,440.25 in December 2023.
Sri Lankans may not be that patriotic unlike our neighbours – the Indians but in the 76th year of independence from British rule and other colonial masters – the Portuguese and the Dutch, our freedom which we cherish is under severe assault.
In an era of social media, digitisation and the internet revolution, the challenges are enormous in the wake of the Online Safety Bill, the Anti-Terrorism Bill and other forms of repressive legislation. Others decide what freedom we must have and can be exercised. There is no individual choice contrary to what the authorities painfully espouse.
Sri Lanka’s welfare state arguably enabled more social progress but has that stimulated an economy that urgently needs more revenue and less expenditure which is a basic premise of a fundamentally, well-run economy?
As we celebrate independence, the country is financially bankrupt and struggling to meet debt obligations and now discussing with debtors a scheduled repayment calendar. The problems started in 2022 when foreign debt payments became unbearable and despite public calls to seek IMF intervention, the government of the day backed by the tsars at the Central Bank decided otherwise. The debt payments were bunching together – for the first time.
In July 2021, Kussi Amma Sera said in her ‘kitchen’ column: Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserve position is precarious. Reserves had fallen to US$4 billion by end-May 2021 from $5.7 billion at end-2020 and $8 billion a few years ago. To add to the country’s woes, there is a bunching up of foreign debt payments in the 2-3 years which means that the foreign debt repayment will be $6.3 billion in 2021, $6.5 billion in 2022 and $5 billion in 2023.
Today, the Agriculture Minister is going gaga over the fact that we have achieved self-sufficiency in rice while we continue to import eggs. Even if Sri Lanka is self-sufficient in rice it remains to be seen as to whether the rice mafia led by the powerful rice mill owners would hoard stocks and trigger a shortage as they have done on numerous occasions in the past.
The fact remains and enunciated by many economists including our own columnist Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne that the future towards a thriving economy lies in increasing exports. Sri Lanka’s neighbours have proved this works particularly Bangladesh which bailed out Sri Lanka with a $200 million loan.
Bangladesh exports for 2022 were $59.28 billion, a 33.57 per cent increase from 2021; while Vietnam’s overall exports in 2022 totalled $371.3 billion, an increase of 10.5 per cent over the prior year, while in the case of Cambodia it was around $22.47 billion. These are countries that embraced free market reforms much after Sri Lanka freed the economy in 1977.
Comparing Sri Lanka’s exports with its neighbours, total exports from here reached $14.94 billion in 2023 including merchandise exports ($11.85 billion) and estimated service exports ($3.08 billion). It was a marginal decline of 0.39 per cent compared to the value recorded in the previous year ($14.99 billion).
The biggest loss was from the export of apparel and textiles, the country’s biggest merchandise export, which decreased by 18.02 per cent to $4,864.53 million during the period of January to December 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. There is no improvement seen for Sri Lanka’s apparel industry this year with a tough six months ahead as a result of the dampening global demand.
As I was reflecting on these issues, the phone at home rang with ‘Dosai Danny’ – my new verti-clad friend, calling from Trincomalee.
“I say…..what is the kind of Independence Day celebrations taking place in Colombo?” he asked.
“Well…..the government normally celebrates it on a grand scale,” I said.
“Here in Trincomalee too, there are plans to celebrate it. But should we spend a lot of money on these grand events when people are suffering,” he said.
“That’s a good point for a country that declared bankruptcy nearly two years ago,” I said.
“The authorities need to rethink their strategies and cut wasteful expenditure and instead channel those resources for the benefit of the people. If you look at our own community, have we solved the Tamil problem after all these years,” he asked.
As I wound up my column and looked outside the window at a National Flag fluttering in the morning breeze I had this nagging concern as to whether Sri Lanka would ever recover from the acute economic crisis with elections due this year. Only time will tell.
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