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On this 76th anniversary of Sri Lanka’s independence, there are many reasons to be disappointed about the country’s economic performance, political developments, and social conditions. It is a tale of missed opportunities and underperformance.

Expectations

The hopes and expectations for the country’s economic, political, and social development were high at independence. It was a model to be emulated, an economy that was expected to perform much better than Sri Lanka’s neighbours and most other countries in Asia. Singapore’s leader, Lee Kwan Yew’s aspiration was for his country to be like Ceylon. The island was expected to be a model for newly independent countries in Asia and Africa.

Looking back

One cannot help but look back in anger at what we have failed to achieve. Even sadder is the present condition of the country’s politics and economy.

Discontent

On this 76th anniversary of independence, we cannot be content with the country’s post-independence economic performance. It has been far below our potential and expectations at independence. It has been a tale of lost opportunities.

Improvements

Nevertheless, our post-independence social development has been impressive, with significant improvements in education, health, and social amenities. We must identify economic and social achievements, as well as gross errors and failures. We must have a balanced view of the post-independent years.

Economic and social development

The nearly eight decades since independence have seen economic growth and social transformations of significance. Yet, much less than the promise held out before, at independence, and soon after.

Economic performance

Sustained, rapid economic growth has eluded the country. Yet, in the post-independence period, 1950–2023, the annual average economic growth of around four percent has been a fair achievement. However, the economy has contracted in the last few years and is currently striving to grow amidst serious constraints. There have been short periods of high growth, but we have failed to sustain it. In the last few years, the economy has contracted. In contrast, the South Asian region is growing.

Long period

Despite this, it can be argued that economic growth of around 4 percent over a long period, though inadequate and below the country’s potential, is not a mean achievement.

Economic achievements

Despite this modest growth, the country has had significant economic and social achievements in the post-independence years. Among them is agricultural development. At the time of independence, the nation imported about half its rice requirements and many of its food requirements. Nearly half of import expenditure was on food for a population of 7 million. Today, with a population of over 22 million, more than thrice the 7 million at independence, we are more or less self-sufficient in rice in a normal year and less dependent on imports of other food needs.

The recent fertiliser fiasco was, of course, a monumental folly from which tea production, in particular, is still adversely affected.

Diversified economy

There has also been a significant diversification of the economy with agriculture constituting only about 7 percent of GDP. Services that contribute about 55 percent of GDP have had the highest growth in recent years. Manufacturing (including construction) contributed 38 percent to GDP before the economic crisis.

Income and poverty

There has been a fourfold increase in per capita income. However, many countries that had a lower per capita income in the 1950s have much higher per capita incomes now.

Poverty had declined over a long period but has increased in the last few years. As much as 40 percent of the population is estimated to be in poverty today.

Human development

The most impressive achievements after independence have been in the country’s social development. There have been significant improvements in literacy and school enrolment, a reduction in mortality rates, an increase in life expectancy, and significant improvements in social amenities such as housing, potable water, sanitation, and access to electricity and telephones. The country achieved the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) set for 2015 but is unlikely to meet the Social Development Goals (SDGs) in the next few years.

Health

Life expectancy at birth increased from around 55 years at the time of independence to 73 years. It is higher for females at 77 years than for males at 72 years. There have been significant improvements in maternal mortality, infant mortality, and under-5 mortality.

Under-5 mortality decreased from 560 per one hundred thousand live births at the time of independence to 100 in 2015. Infant mortality declined from 82 to 8.5 per thousand in 2015. These are significant achievements.

Diseases

Most communicable diseases have been eradicated, but non-communicable diseases are increasing. There have, however, been new diseases such as COVID and dengue. Illnesses associated with the country’s ageing population are increasing.

Literacy and education

Adult literacy increased from 57.8 percent in 1945 to 93 percent in 2021. Female literacy improved more sharply during this period, from 43.8 percent (1945) to 92 percent, while male literacy increased from 70.1 percent to 94 percent in 2021.

The Human Development Index (HDI), which is a composite indicator of development, was at 0.782 (2019), and Sri Lanka ranked 72nd of 189 countries. While this ranking is above that of most countries at similar levels of income, countries in East Asia and South East Asia that were behind Sri Lanka in the 1950s and 1960s have overtaken us.

Limitations

Despite these improvements in mortality rates, literacy, and school enrolment, high rates of diseases associated with poverty and poor living conditions persist. Further, the quality of health and educational services leaves much to be desired. There are also significant regional disparities, urban-rural differences, and a serious deterioration of health care in the last few years.

Social development

Notwithstanding these qualifications, there is no doubt that the country’s social and human development indicators are impressive. This comes out clearly when comparisons are made with other developing and even some developed countries. However, progress in social indicators would have had a setback in recent years owing to the economic crisis and inadequate expenditure on health and education.

Concluding reflection

On this 76th anniversary of independence, the country is experiencing slow economic growth and is in political confusion and uncertainty as it faces the election of a president and parliament. This is a critical year that will determine the future of the country.

Can we expect a strong resolve for development that transcends the constraints of rapid economic development? Will it be a turning point when corruption is eliminated, the rule of law restored, and pragmatic economic policies pursued?