Be prepared
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Come August–September 2024, songs like this Desmond de Silva classic will fill the election campaign trail. Here is a sample verse:Sumihiri paane padamata gahala//Heta marunath
hithata sepai ada joli karala//Noka nobi looba kamata wasthu soyanne//Maruna data copen eke api nidiyanne//Hodata joli karapan….
When roughly translated it means:
Take some liquor to the right level//Even if I die tomorrow, I will be happy if I am able to have a jolly good time today //Even if you amass wealth without eating or drinking//When you die you lie in a coffin//So have a jolly good time.
Being prepared in a more serious sense is what we are discussing today. I was alerted to the prospects of another pandemic when an article from the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) by researcher Chaya Dissanayake titled ‘Threads of Resilience: Is Sri Lanka’s apparel sector prepared to face another pandemic?’ appeared on my computer.
It said: “The World Health Organization (WHO) is expressing concerns about the global community’s readiness for pathogen X, a highly contagious pathogen that could emerge in the future. Scientists predict a higher likelihood of its origin in tropical regions, placing Sri Lanka at considerable risk.”
Alarm bells over another pandemic? On this Thursday morning, I called Ruwanputha, the young economist, to get his thoughts on the economic implications of another pandemic (after the deadly COVID-19 pandemic) and what kind of preparations was required.
By the way…..today’s column is not to alarm our readers but to make sure everyone is prepared in case another global pandemic breaks out. “This time the economic implications would be much worse than COVID-19,” I told Ruwanputha.
“It would be. On the other hand, being ready means coming up with a game plan to limit the economic exposure unlike COVID-19,” he said.
“The challenge is that the repercussions of the earlier pandemic are still being felt particularly among the SMEs which suffered a lot and have been given some breathing space through the suspension of regulations that govern the seizure of these businesses (parate execution) for non-payment of loans,” I said, adding that affected SMEs would take at least another three years to recover fully.
“On the other hand, the next pandemic might not be as bad as COVID-19, although more deadly, because we have seen the effects of a deadly pandemic and would be more prepared with vaccinations and taking precautions like lockdowns, avoiding gatherings, working from home and always wearing a face mask which is still practiced by some people,” he said.
According to available literature, disease X is the name given by scientists and the WHO to an unknown pathogen that could emerge in future and cause a serious international epidemic or pandemic.
The term, coined in 2017, can be used to mean a newly-discovered pathogen or any known pathogen with newly-acquired pandemic potential. By the latter definition, COVID-19 was the first Disease X. But there could be another in the future, the WHO said.
It said the WHO has been warning global leaders about the risks of future pandemics. “Some people say this may create panic,” says WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. “No. It’s better to anticipate something that may happen – because it has happened in our history many times – and prepare for it.”
After completing the first part of a troubled column, I took a short breather, walking to the kitchen to get another mug of tea when I spotted the trio under the margosa tree. “Mae rasney harima amarui. Hariyata thibaha wenawa (The heat is terrible and makes people feel very thirsty),” said Mabel Rasthiyadu.
“Samaharu kiyanawa davasakata de-thun serayak naanna kiyala. Eth wathurath mae davas wala adui-nae idorey hinda (Some people are suggesting having two to three baths a day but water is also in short supply due to the drought),” noted Serapina.
“Eth hondata wathura bonna oney nethnam asaneepa wenna puluwan (But you need to drink enough water otherwise you can fall ill),” said Kussi Amma Sera, sipping a glass of water.
The IPS article said the COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the livelihoods of millions of workers across Sri Lanka. “The manufacturing sector, where workers are in very close proximity to one another, faced more challenging conditions than other sectors such as agriculture. Given the significance of the apparel industry in the manufacturing base and as a source of employment in Sri Lanka, the IPS article said it was assessing the pandemic’s impact on female apparel workers and proposed future policies to minimise the cost of similar episodes.
It said the pandemic response transitioned from an emergency response stage to a more organised response mitigating health and economic impacts over time. The initial emergency response phase (March-June 2020) saw sudden lockdowns, income loss and restricted access to healthcare. Apparel workers faced many challenges during this initial period due to the nature of their work and their living arrangements, IPS said.
Indeed Sri Lanka was not prepared for a pandemic of this magnitude. Barely recovering in 2020 from the April 21, 2019, Easter Sunday attacks with the crisis dealing a severe blow to tourism, the pandemic hit in early 2020 with Sri Lanka’s first case being reported on January 27.
It then spread across the country resulting in chaos and confusion particularly in the operation of economic activity. While the authorities struggled to get COVID-19 vaccinations, lockdowns were the order of the day and work from home became the norm. Citizens were ordered to wear face masks, avoid gatherings and ensure they took the vaccinations and booster shots.
The economy collapsed, income levels fell and poverty levels rose with limited economic activity. Sri Lanka faced a peculiar problem: It ran out of foreign exchange as migrant workers sent their remittances through informal channels which offered a better rate of exchange. A ban on chemical fertiliser by then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa triggered a huge shortage of fertiliser, further exacerbating the crisis. The shortage of foreign exchange resulted in shortages in fuel, cooking gas and much-needed medicines. Snaking queues formed outside fuel stations with angry motorists often clashing with police amidst frayed tempers and opposition mounting against the government.
Economic growth slipped and recorded negative levels, while inflation rose sharply with prices of essentials hitting the roof. Sri Lanka is still recovering from that crisis though the era of queues has ended.
With the WHO warning of the prospect of another pandemic in the not-too-distant future, the country needs to be prepared health-wise and economically to tackle such future challenges, having learnt from the last pandemic. Whatever it is, the country’s planners need to come up with a proper game plan to address these issues and like the Scout motto – be prepared.
As I sipped tea, my thoughts were on the poorest of the poor who were the worst affected in the pandemic and the need to protect this segment of the population from another debilitating crisis.
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