Editorial

What was branded as the ‘Festival of Democracy’ with 642 million voters peacefully electing a government of their choice, turned out a surprise result. As one young Indian journalist nicely put it; They (the voters), gave the ruling BJP a victory that feels like a defeat; and the Opposition Alliance a defeat that feels like a victory.

The final outcome was far from what the BJP aimed for – a thumping landslide. They were the single largest party, but fell short of even a simple majority. The result flew in the face of the hype around Prime Minister Narendra Modi, defying the opinion polls. Having won twice before, the BJP won for a third time, but was humbled in the process in having to work with coalition partners with whom they have earlier had testy relations.

The BJP campaign banked entirely on their leader’s personal charisma which had served them well in the past. His self-promotional campaigns – one day wearing a fighter pilot’s uniform, another day the saffron robes of a meditating sadhu, were overkill. The BJP also relied heavily on their once-successful mantra to win the popular vote – whipping up majority Hindutva ideology. That didn’t fire as before either.

If the South of India never did wholly subscribe to the Hindutva ideology, even the Hindu heartland of the North did not succumb this time. Once the BJP’s stronghold, the state of Uttar Pradesh that sends 80 plus members to their Parliament, turned their backs on the ruling party. The long tanding farmers’ crisis, rising prices, unemployment, moves to win over corrupt Opposition members, the new military recruitment scheme etc., all played a part in the North overriding the Hindutva overdrive. Even the massive Hindu temple Ram Mandir (Ram’s Temple) at Ayodhya opened on the eve of elections, did not bring the electoral rewards.

Elsewhere, the BJP’s aggressive Hindutva push naturally had the country’s minorities, the Muslims and Christians, and even the Dalits (scheduled caste) and tribes massed behind the Opposition Alliance. The threat of a runaway BJP victory seeing a change in the secular Constitution of India was a decisive element in the anti-BJP vote. These minorities feared for their future with BJP leaders talking of amending the Constitution, and taking away the constitutional safeguards of minorities along with the national flag and the national emblem – the Asokan Dharma Chakra in a Hindu Bharat.

Mr. Modi campaigned tirelessly going the extra mile in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu to break the monopoly of the regional parties. His BJP was decimated in both states. In Tamil Nadu, he ignored bilateral good relations with a friendly neighbour, Sri Lanka, to pull the Katchchativu issue out of the woodwork – such was his desperation. It didn’t work. His BJP local leader lost his seat.

The Modi Administration has no doubt, lifted millions of Indians out of poverty and given self-confidence to a burgeoning middle class and its bureaucrats. Credit to this ‘New India’ must however go to the Indian PM of the early 1990s, P.V. Narasimha Rao, and later PM Manmohan Singh, both from the Congress. The BJP took the economy from there to even greater heights. It launched warships, and spacehips. But the economic trickle-down effect did not reach the grassroots. Despite the swanky new international airport in Modi’s own constituency of Varanasi, the poor are still cooking their roti at night on the streets under the newly built flyover to the city.

Additionally, the emerging new economy was witnessing an emerging autocracy. Crony capitalism was on the rise. Two Opposition Chief Ministers were locked up on the eve of the elections, and the leader of the Opposition Congress Party was disqualified from Parliament. All attributed to the ‘legal process’. And then there was the ED (Enforcement Directorate), the dreaded Inland Revenue hit-men to deal with annoying opponents. India was moving towards a ‘guided democracy’, one party rule.

Unsurprisingly, the West has welcomed the return of the Modi Government, however bruised and weakened. Not for them the democrati abberations they see elsewhere in the world. The German Foreign Office for instance, tweeted a congratulatory message to the ‘new government’ and talked of taking cooperation with it to the ‘next level’. PM Modi will be rubbing shoulders with his Western allies next week in Europe at the G-7 summit.

What can Sri Lanka learn from this huge election? For one, opinion polls have been clean off the mark. Undercurrents were not monitored. The media, if not independent, can puff up political leaders to live in a make-believe world. Voter apathy was high, anti-incumbency sentiment prevailed, corruption was noted, and overplaying communal and religious cards reached the limits of support.

And what of Sri Lanka’s relations with India? President Ranil Wickremesinghe lost no time in congratulating the Indian PM by tweet, by phone, by press release, by formal letter and will eventually in person today. Yet, Sri Lankan Governments must recognize that the Southern and Eastern states of India, viz. Tamil Nadu, Kerala, West Bengal, even Maharashtra are somewhat disconnected with New Delhi with a life of their own.

These states, including Andhra Pradesh and Odisha that voted for the BJP, are emerging economies that Sri Lanka must forge stronger relations with for markets and connectivity even more than with New Zealand, Kazakhstan and Romania, if priorities have to be considered.

The Foreign Ministry, which has plans to include Foreign Trade into its portfolio, together with the Chamber of Commerce and the private export sector must join hands in ‘Looking Closer’, and building economic bridges with them for stronger trade, cultural, religious and sporting ties and leave the political ties to New Delhi. Ties with these states must not be limited to the import trade of dhal, onions, sugar and eggs.

In many ways, it is now back to coalition politics in India and the new Modi Government will need to be mindful of the inevitable pressures from its regional coalition partners of Bihar and Andhra Pradesh. Still, for Sri Lanka, it is arguably better than dealing with an Opposition Alliance that had so many parties that they couldn’t pick a single leader for their coalition. Such a government in New Delhi could have a greater chance of collapse than the Modi Government. A united India is always safer to deal with.

For that reason alone, it may be in Sri Lanka’s interest that a somewhat more stable and less lordly administration is in office in Delhi at a political level, while pursuing her other interests with its southern states.