Columns

• He will make two special statements in parliament before that; the first major meeting in Matara on June 30
• Social media speculates presidential term extension, citing constitutional loophole, but Supreme Court ruling on Sirisena’s term puts record straight
• Modi’s upcoming visit to Lanka a major boost for Wickremesinghe; connectivity bridge and major development projects on the agenda
• IMF releases third tranche with remarks praising government’s economic path, but governing issues still a concern

By Our Political Editor

Perhaps never in a pre-election period has social media been as active as it is today. Among the many reasons is the proliferation of their outlets, the result of the rapid growth of mobile communications technology.

So much So, President Ranil Wickremesinghe last Monday named a high-level committee of four to deal with social media, besides the mainstream media. It will be the apex body for all matters relating to the presidential election. It will be headed by Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena and includes Presidential Chief of Staff Sagala Ratnayake, and Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva, who represents the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP).

(SLPP) founder Basil Rajapaksa was also named a member. However, he has declined to serve on the committee. This is until such time that the SLPP formally decides who its presidential candidate will be. The party is awaiting a formal response from Wickremesinghe, who has yet to officially announce his presidential candidature. Such a move is expected to come in the form of a letter Wickremesinghe will write to all political parties and groups, saying he will be an “independent candidate” in the upcoming presidential election. Thereafter, the SLPP expects to endorse his candidature as the presidential candidate. Casino owner and millionaire businessman Dhammika Perera is to be the SLPP’s prime ministerial nominee.

Wickremesinghe’s proposed presidential election campaign is expected to receive a major boost with the impending visit to Sri Lanka of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, either in July or August. India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is due in Colombo on June 20 (Thursday). Among other matters, he is expected to discuss arrangements for the Modi visit. The Indian Premier is expected to travel with President Wickremesinghe to important capitals in the country. He is also likely to announce the Indian government’s plans to construct a bridge across the Thalaimannar coast to link Rameshwaram on the Indian side and possible development projects in the east. The land-based connectivity linking western Sri Lanka with a southern port city is to be carried out during the tenure of a new President.

President Wickremesinghe being welcomed by India's third-time Prime Minister Narendra Modi at last week's swearing-in ceremony in New Delhi. Mr. Modi is expected to visit Sri Lanka in the coming months.

Speculation on term extension

Sections of social media, besides recognised web portals, speculated recently that the President could prolong his office by a further year due to a lacuna in the Constitution. It has remained since the 19th Amendment. If the tenures of both the President and Parliament were changed from six to five years, one article (Article 83(B)) remained unchanged. Some social media posts speculated, though wrongly, that President Wickremesinghe would seize this to seek an extension of his term by a year or two. Also wrongly, they speculated that it was the reason behind his move to provide an extension of service to Attorney General Sanjay Rajaratnam. Some were even influenced by a witty remark President Wickremesinghe, known for his lighthearted banter, made at Monday’s weekly ministerial meeting. He named a legal counsel in the Drafting Committee responsible for the constitutional flaw and remarked that he could not even get that right. The matter ended there.

The fact remains that former President Maithripala Sirisena did seek a determination from the Supreme Court in January 2018. The Supreme Court informed him that he could serve a presidential term of five years and not six, following an inquiry made by the President, the President’s Media Division said. Sirisena had sought advice from the Supreme Court on whether he could remain in Office for six years despite having reduced his tenure to five through a constitutional amendment in May 2015. He had written to Supreme Court Chief Justice Priyasath Dep, seeking his opinion, and had sought an answer on or before January 14, 2018.

Five months after Sirisena was elected to office in January 2015, Parliament passed the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, which states that the President of the Republic shall be elected by the people and shall hold office for a term of five years. Before this constitutional amendment, Sri Lankan presidents were allowed to serve a term of six years. However, officials from Sirisena’s Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) then argued that since Sirisena was elected in January 2015, when the presidential term was six years, the reduced five-year term should apply from the next presidential election.

In January 2015, the President’s Media Division declared in a statement that “Last week, the President made a reference to the Supreme Court seeking its opinion on whether he could serve up to six years. The five-member bench of the Supreme Court has unanimously ruled that the President’s term was restricted only to five years. The bench comprised Chief Justice Priyasath Dep, Eva Wanasundare, Buvaneka Aluvihare, Sisira de Abrew and K. Chitrasiri. The bench communicated its opinion to the Presidential Secretariat yesterday.”

Efforts to remain in office after the end of the five-year term, legal experts then warned President Sirisena, would be an impossible task. His term was to end on January 8, 2020. In a bid to hold office beyond this date, he was to seek a determination from the Supreme Court when his term of office began. Earlier, President Sirisena was told by his advisors that his tenure should begin on May 15, 2015 — the day the Speaker signed his assent to the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. This amendment reduced the term of office of the President from six to five years. Before leaving for London last Monday on a private visit for the graduation of his son Daham, he was informed that a previous determination he sought in 2018 from the Supreme Court (SC) had answered the issues he proposed to raise.

Ahead of the SC determination, then-Attorney General Jayantha Jayasuriya (now Chief Justice), said that Maithripala Sirisena had assumed duties in the office of President on January 9, 2015, for six years. Any changes in the term of the President would be an alienation of the sovereignty of the people. He said, “There are no provisions in the 19th Amendment to operate same with retrospective effect. Constitutions cannot be amended with retrospective effect,” the Attorney General said making submissions on a determination sought by President Sirisena about the duration of his presidency. AG Jayasuriya said the people had exercised their sovereignty through the right of franchise to elect President Maithripala Sirisena to office of the President for a period of six years prior to the operation of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. He submitted that the incumbent President was elected by the people to the office for a term of six years. It is the sovereignty of the people who exercise that franchise to elect him as president. The power emanated from the franchise of the people. The commencement of his office should be considered from the date on which he is elected for a term of six years prior to the operation of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. He submitted that the President was elected by the people for the office for a term of six years.

The main focus of the talks NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake and SJB leader Sajith Premadasa (right) had with northern politicians separately was on the 13th Amendment

Extension for AG

This week, government leaders were busy making a case before the Constitutional Council for a service extension for Attorney General Sanjay Rajaratnam. The move has had a mixed response. Detractors argue that there was no legal provision to grant a service extension. Legal counsel advising the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) want to move the Supreme Court. However, government leaders familiar with the exercise point out that there were precedents. They say that when Chandana Wickremeratne was the Inspector General of Police (IGP), the CC granted him fortnightly extensions of service. This was on the recommendation of President Wickremesinghe. Similarly, the President has made a recommendation for the extension of the AG’s term. A government member busy with the ongoing efforts, who did not wish to be named, said that Attorney General Rajaratnam has played an important role in formulating laws once legislation is passed by Parliament. “He is the last point before new laws are sent to the Speaker for attestation,” he said.

The CC is chaired by Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena and comprises Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa, Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva, MPs Sagara Kariyawasam and Kabir Hashim, Dr Pratap Ramanujam, Dr Ms Anula Wijesundere and Dr Ms Dinesha Samaratatne. It must be noted that the Speaker does not have a vote except when there is a tie, when he could weigh in with a casting vote.

Recent weeks have seen President Wickremesinghe play an enhanced role in presidential election-related activity. This week, he chaired a meeting where the dates and venues of major election rallies were finalised. The first will take place in Matara on June 30. The other meetings scheduled are Badulla on July 7, Kandy on July 14, and Galle on July 21. On Thursday night, he entertained State Ministers to dinner.

IMF observations

President Wickremesinghe is due to make a statement in Parliament next week on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) granting access to US$ 330 million from its Extended Fund Facility. He is to thank Sri Lankans for facing hardships so the country’s economy could be placed on a firm footing. He is also to tell them that the issue with bondholders will also be resolved soon. A Washington datelined statement from the IMF gave a detailed account. Here is the full text which gives IMF’s assessment (ahead of a presidential election) and how it carried out the second review for the US$ 330 million Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

“Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review under the 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement, allowing the authorities to draw SDR 254 million (about US$336 million). This brings the total IMF financial support disbursed so far to SDR 762 million (about US$1 billion). The Executive Board also concluded the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Sri Lanka.

“The EFF arrangement for Sri Lanka was approved by the Executive Board on March 20, 2023 (see Press Release No. 23/79) in an amount of SDR 2.286 billion (395 percent of quota or about US$3 billion. The first review of the EFF was completed by the Executive Board on December 12, 2023 with disbursements of SDR 254 million (about US$337 million; see Press Release No. 23/439).

“The EFF-supported programme aims to restore Sri Lanka’s macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, mitigate the economic impact on the poor and vulnerable, rebuild external buffers, safeguard financial sector stability, and strengthen governance and growth potential.

“Signs of economic recovery are emerging. Real GDP expanded by 3 percent (y-o-y) in the second half of 2023. May 2024 inflation was 0.9 percent and gross international reserves increased to US$5.5 billion by end-April 2024. The primary balance improved to a surplus with tax revenue increasing to 9.8 percent of GDP in 2023. Despite improvements in non performing loans, pockets of vulnerabilities remain in the banking sector.

“The recovery remains gradual, and the medium-term growth potential hinges on appropriate policy settings. Growth is projected to recover moderately in 2024-25 given constrained bank credit and fiscal consolidation, while facing uncertainties around the debt restructuring and policy direction following the elections. Inflation is expected to temporarily increase due to one-off factors. The current account is expected to remain positive in 2024, driven by improved tourist arrivals and remittances. Domestic risks could arise from waning reform momentum, especially on revenue mobilisation. External risks are associated with intensified regional conflicts, commodity price volatility, and a global slowdown. Slow progress in debt restructuring could widen financing gaps.

“Following the Executive Board’s discussion, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

“Sri Lanka’s performance under its Fund-supported programme remains strong. All quantitative targets were met, except for the marginal shortfall of indicative target on social spending. Most structural benchmarks were either met or implemented with delay. Reforms and policy adjustments are bearing fruit. The economy is starting to recover, inflation remains low, revenue collection is improving, and reserves continue to accumulate. Despite these positive developments, the economy is still vulnerable and the path to debt sustainability remains knife-edged. Important vulnerabilities associated with the ongoing debt restructuring, revenue mobilisation, reserve accumulation, and banks’ ability to support the recovery continue to cloud the outlook. Strong reform efforts, adequate safeguards, and contingency planning help mitigate these risks.

“To restore fiscal sustainability, sustained revenue mobilisation efforts, promptly finalising the debt restructuring in line with programme targets, and protecting social and capital spending remain critical. Advancing public financial management will help enhance fiscal discipline, and strengthening the debt management framework is also needed.

“Monetary policy should continue prioritizing price stability, supported by a sustained commitment to refrain from monetary financing and safeguard central bank independence. Continued exchange rate flexibility and gradually phasing out the balance of payments measures remain critical to rebuild external buffers and facilitate external rebalancing.

“Restoring bank capital adequacy and strengthening governance and oversight of state-owned banks are top priorities to revive credit growth and support economic recovery.

“The authorities need to press ahead with their efforts to address structural challenges to unlock long-term potential. Key priorities include steadfast implementation of the governance reforms; further trade liberalisation to promote exports and foreign direct investment; labour reforms to upgrade skills and increase female labour force participation; and state-owned enterprise reforms to improve efficiency and fiscal transparency, contain fiscal risks, and promote a level playing field for the private sector.

Executive Board Assessment

“Executive Directors commended the authorities’ strong performance under the Fund supported programme, noting that reforms are bearing fruit. The economy has started to recover, inflation remains low, revenue collection is improving, and reserves continue to accumulate. Directors underscored, however, that important vulnerabilities and uncertainties remain, including with respect to the ongoing debt restructuring and the upcoming elections. Against this backdrop, they called on the authorities to continue strengthening macroeconomic policies to restore economic stability and debt sustainability and to sustain the reform momentum to promote long term inclusive growth.

“Directors underscored that restoring fiscal sustainability requires additional revenue measures underpinning the 2025 Budget, further tax administration reforms, as well as limiting tax exemptions and making them more transparent. They called for protecting growth enhancing and social spending, and for improving the social safety net. Directors welcomed the submission of the new Public Financial Management bill to Parliament, which would strengthen fiscal discipline and establish a solid fiscal framework. They noted that further efforts to strengthen the debt management framework are also needed. Directors welcomed the progress on achieving cost recovery in energy pricing, noting its criticality for containing risks from state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

“Directors welcomed the progress made to advance debt restructuring to restore Sri Lanka’s debt sustainability. They called for a swift finalisation of the Memorandum of Understanding with the Official Creditor Committee and final agreements with the Export-Import Bank of China. Directors stressed the importance of seeking comparable, transparent, and timely completion of restructurings with external private creditors consistent with programme targets.

“Directors emphasised that maintaining price stability remains the top priority for monetary policy, which requires anchoring inflation expectations, continuing to refrain from monetary financing, and the gradual unwinding of government security holdings as markets allow. They also stressed the importance of strengthening central bank independence. Directors underscored the need to continue building external buffers, while maintaining exchange rate flexibility to facilitate external rebalancing and preserve the credibility of the inflation-targeting regime. They called for gradually phasing out the balance of payments measures.

“Directors underscored the need to strengthen financial sector resilience to support the recovery. They called for swift completion of the restructuring of remaining domestic law, foreign currency loans and for adequate recapitalisation of commercial and state-owned banks. Directors welcomed the enactment of the Banking Act amendments and emphasised the importance of their effective implementation to enhance supervision and the governance of state-owned banks. They also called for further efforts to strengthen the anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing framework.

“Directors stressed that pressing ahead with governance and structural reforms, supported by development partners and IMF capacity development, is crucial to unlock growth potential. They welcomed the publication of the authorities’ action plan on the key governance reforms recommended in the Governance Diagnostic Report and called for its steadfast implementation. Directors also recommended prioritising reforms to further liberalise trade, improve the investment climate and SOE efficiency, reduce gender gaps in the labour market, and mitigate climate vulnerabilities.”

13th Amendment

Also due is another statement in Parliament by President Wickeremesinghe when the issues with Sri Lanka’s bondholders are resolved.Thereafter, a source close to him said Wickremesinghe would formally declare his candidature for the presidency “and get down to a major campaign.” This will be in early July, according to the source. The presumptive candidatures of a few for the presidency are already known. They are Anura Kumara Dissanayake (National People’s Power), Sajith Premadasa (SJB) and Dilith Jayaweera (Mawbima Janatha Party (MJP). This is besides a few more and those fielding as independent candidates.

Two of the would-be candidates—Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake—have already visited the north for their campaign meetings. Interestingly, both have been posed with the question of what their position was with respect to ethnic reconciliation and related matters.

In a comment made to the media after meeting with members of the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi Sajith, Premadasa said: “We will take forward the implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution. The 13th Amendment is something which did not fall from the sky.  This is something which already exists in the Constitution. What we need to see is how we proceed forward in an efficient manner. We will make a road map for the implementation (of the 13th Amendment).

Anura Kumara Dissanayake, in his comments made after a meeting also with the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi, said, “The JVP manifesto for the local council elections has accepted that the Provincial Council system should continue. We need to have discussions on how to move forward. There need to be constitutional changes. Also, we need to implement certain provisions in the Constitution for unity. There are some provisions in the constitution, that are limited to laws, but we need to go ahead to ensure practical approaches are followed. In our discussions, we focused on the misunderstandings which had occurred in the past. We are optimistic about the future. Also regarding provincial councils, we accept the fact that it has not been a solution to the current issues. We need to go beyond that. Constitutional changes, amendments to laws, and practical approaches are all needed to restore national unity. Particularly on political entitlements, we need to give firm assurances. At the same time, the community should be given its rights so that it can take its own decisions. We need to focus on these aspects.”

Anura Kumara Dissanayake arrived in London on Thursday for a two-day visit to meet his party supporters. Before his departure, he addressed a youth conference in Kurunegala. He said, “You were called to the struggle because you are engaged in an active common political goal to establish a fair society, where the law is applied fairly, and there is no theft. The rulers described the struggle that arose out of the screaming pain of the young generation as the work of drug addicts. If these rulers were to learn a lesson, it should have been learned from the essence of the struggle. But they called it an idiotic, brutal uprising of drug addicts. It was further said that it was an uprising of prostitutes. At least these rulers have not learned their lessons from such a huge popular uprising.”

There is little doubt that election fever will increase in the coming weeks. Breakaway groups of the SLPP are busy with talks to form new alliances.