Columns

• SJB candidate Premadasa’s chances boosted by ITAK support; crossover to Ranil’s side unlikely
• NPP candidate Dissanayake expresses confidence of a victory; tries to allay fears of economic crisis

By Our Political Editor

Such contributions, one need hardly say, influence political and campaign strategies for a victory. Months earlier, when the formal announcement of the presidential candidature by Wickremesinghe was a guessing game, substantial support for him was due from two main quarters. One was the formal backing from the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna  (SLPP). The other was the reported crossover of at least 19 or more members, including some key personalities, from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB).

Air Force personnel casting postal votes

They were not to be. The SLPP chose to go along with its own candidate. Despite backroom manoeuvres, SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, creditable enough, managed to keep his membership together. The only exception perhaps is the case of Ishak Rahuman, the Anuradhapura district parliamentarian. Here again, he remained suspended from the SJB on disciplinary grounds. Yet, the story is doing the rounds through the rumour mill that 19 more SJBers will follow suit ten days before the election. It remains not only doubtful but sounds illogical that any parliamentarian, albeit politician, would choose to switch allegiance so late. The rewards they expect would diminish and their ‘market value’ would be the lowest.

Then, funds were channelled to parliamentarians through the decentralised budget. Many received liquor licences, a means of becoming rich overnight whilst helping supporters. These and other measures were thought to be useful to create the right political climate for those wanting to cross over. An accompanying social media campaign got underway. However, what was expected did not materialise.

The recent weeks and days saw more intelligence inputs, according to at least three different sources supporting Wickremesinghe. For obvious reasons, rules governing the media during polls debar disclosure of fuller details. Suffice it to say, such inputs coupled together with those from important backers of Wickremesinghe in Colombo were to raise some alarm bells. It led to newer measures. Cultivation loans of farmers who suffered crop losses are to be written off. Salaries of state sector employees are being increased. This included school principals, teachers, police officers, Grama Niladhari Officers, Administrative Officers, Deputy Directors, Deputy Commissioners and Medical Officers. For good measure, President Wickremesinghe called upon the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and the National People’s Power (NPP) to withdraw their proposals to raise public sector salaries. These measures have already drawn protests from civil society organisations to the Election Commission that they were inducements and thus violated polls laws.

Army personnel casting postal votes

What is important against this backdrop are the remarks made by President Wickremesinghe that SJB candidate Premadasa “cannot defeat Anura Kumara Dissanayake.” He declared that the National People Power (NPP) leader gains “support from Premadasa’s mistakes.” He noted that Dissanayake has now become a threat to Premadasa, who “wasted time with lengthy speeches in Parliament.” That those remarks, that too from a formidable candidate, is unusual. Wickremesinghe has made them on at least four different occasions or more at election rallies. It comes in the backdrop of intelligence input and those from his own campaign staff, raises some serious questions. The most important, when he asserts that Premadasa cannot win, whom is he saying would win? Though he has not claimed victory for himself, which is only logical, he has left it open. Is there a suggestion to imply that it would be NPP leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, now a frontrunner? Is he therefore sounding a “note of caution” to voters? This is by asserting that he was a better candidate than Premadasa and Dissanayake. There are also protagonists of Premadasa who view the remarks as a last-minute effort to woo their leader to “forget the past and join hands” to avoid “the shape of things to come.” However, “such a tie-up is out of the question,” they say. Premadasa has also strongly discounted them at polls rallies.

NPP promises

Interestingly, NPP leader Dissanayake told an election rally outside Colombo on Thursday that he had attended that day’s Parliament sessions. He was confident of a victory. He considered that day’s sessions as the last sitting of the current parliament. He proposed to dissolve the House and go for a parliamentary election. He was sure of his party receiving a majority. In the interim, he would swear in a Cabinet of Ministers who will be only 25 in number. He pointed out that at present ministerial positions were formulated to help cronies receive portfolios. An example was how there were different ministries for agriculture and irrigation. In his government, there would be only one such minister not only for agriculture, irrigation and water but the subjects will also include water supply, lands and related fields.  Similarly, a Transport Ministry will incorporate highways instead of two different portfolios. There would be only 25 deputy ministers, and the positions of state ministers would be abolished. He said security escorts for ministers would be withdrawn and they would be given a utility vehicle and not a luxury one. Only those needing personal security would be provided with such protection after proper security assessments.  No car permits would be given to MPs.

All state benefits granted to former presidents will be withdrawn. This includes official residences they occupy in Colombo although some of them have their own residences. Their security needs will also be assessed based on threats. No one will be assigned security personnel purely to open vehicle doors, to prepare tea or carry out shopping, he explained. Another important area will be the probe into cases of widespread bribery and corruption.  Children of those holding political office will be removed. He cited the case of a high-ranking dignitary whose son was the chairman of a state corporation with considerable revenue. There was also the case of the son of a top rung provincial official whose son was the chairman of a state consumer-oriented organisation.

Postal officials prepare for delivery of poll cards

That is not all. He said that his NPP would guarantee “there will be no unilateral withdrawal from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).” The pledge was made to the business community during a meeting at the Monarch Imperial in Battaramulla last week. He noted, “Some are trying to sow fear during this presidential campaign. They are claiming that the economy will suffer a terrible collapse if the NPP comes to power. They are even trying to blame the NPP’s rising popularity for the recent downturn in the stock market. We have been engaged in politics for a long time, but this is the first time that we are poised to come to power.

“We saw in 2021-2022 how the people reacted to an economic collapse. The President who was elected had to flee the country within two years of coming to power. So, would we, after working for so long for a political objective, create a situation that would result in us having to flee after six months? No. Moreover, the Supreme Court has already ruled that the then President, Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Finance Ministry Secretary and the Central Bank Governor were responsible for the economic collapse. In such a scenario, would we chart a course that would result in us also being found guilty by the Supreme Court? No.”

He claimed that “we will not allow the economy to collapse again. We will stabilize and strengthen the economy and take it forward.”

Tamil votes

The Tamil minority votes, particularly in the north, coupled together with Muslim votes in the Eastern Province, do matter in a presidential election. It is therefore significant that the premier Tamil political entity in these two provinces, the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchi (ITAK), whose precursor was the Federal Party, has chosen to support Premadasa, though it is now in the throes of a crisis and disarray.

Last Sunday, one of the ITAK’s key members, Abraham Sumanthiran, declared that the ITAK Working Committee had decided to back Premadasa. That was shock news for those backing independent candidate President Ranil Wickremesinghe. A key ITAK member had earlier obtained three liquor licences from him, as Finance Minister, for different businessman friends. He is also alleged to have won cash contributions ostensibly for different projects thus fuelling hopes of their support. The anger of Wickremesinghe backers was reflected in their lukewarm response when Sumanthiran moved in Parliament last Wednesday that the provincial elections be held immediately after the September 21 presidential election. This was based on a private member’s motion he had moved and approved by the House earlier that the PC polls be conducted according to the previous law.

The decision of the ITAK Central Committee last Sunday, at a meeting at the Ghana Restaurant in Vavuniya, is paradoxical. Firstly, S. Shritharan, the newly elected ITAK leader, before his departure last week to London, declared that he would support the “common presidential Tamil candidate” P. Ariyanenthiran. This received wide publicity in the Tamil media in Jaffna with photos of Shrithartan and Ariyanenthiran shaking hands. Shritharan’s visit to London, contrary to claims that he would raise funds for Ariyanenthiran’s campaign, is to attend the chariot festival of Sri Karpaga Vinayagar Kovil  in Walthamstow on the outskirts of London. The temple has also been rebuilt and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has been invited to the event. Ariyanenthiran is also a member of the ITAK Central Committee. Questions are being raised over how he, a member of the Central Committee, became a candidate without the Committee’s endorsement. Questions are also being raised over how Shritharan, none less than the ITAK president, chose to support Ariyanenthiran without the approval of the Central Committee. All this bickering has raised the question whether the ITAK will split, that too before a parliamentary election. Some are also raising an unusual request—urge Ariyanenthiran to declare that he would withdraw his candidature. There is pressure both from here and abroad, said a well-informed source who did not wish to be identified.

At one time, the ITAK stood tall in the eyes of the public in the north and the east. Their one-time Tamil National Alliance (TNA), which encompassed other leading Tamil groups, drew strength from those in the two provinces. How internal rivalries have split them bitterly came to light last Sunday. This was after its Central Committee decided by a majority vote to back Premadasa. It was the fifth time; the party was meeting for a final decision on whom it would extend support at the presidential polls. Earlier, it was decided to await the manifestoes of the frontline candidates. At the previous meeting held on August 18, a five-member Committee was constituted to study the manifestos of leading presidential candidates and submit a report to the CC. The committee consisted of party President Mavai Senathirajah, General Secretary Dr P. Sathyalingam, Vice President C.V.K. Sivagnanam, Jaffna District MPs S. Shritharan and Abraham Sumanthiran. The latter was asked to submit a report after analysing the manifestoes of the leading candidates.

However, the newly elected party leader, Shritharan, sent a letter dated August 28 to the party General Secretary explaining his inability to attend the CC meeting since he was due to fly on the same day to the United Kingdom.

Shrithran stressed his position that his stance would be to extend support to the “Tamil Common Candidate” if none of the Southern leaders outrightly declared to resolve the longstanding ethnic conflict on a “federal-based solution, not under a unitary nature of the state.” He noted that “As our late leader Rajavarothiyam Sampanthan consistently stressed in the past, the solution to the ethnic conflict should be a merged North-East province with a federal-based package that recognises the self-determination of the Tamil people as per the agreements reached in Oslo talks.” (Fact check: No such agreement was reached at Norwegian-brokered talks)

“If the Southern candidates declared their willingness to resolve the conflict based on this, we can consider extending support.  Otherwise, my stand would be to extend the support to the “Tamil Common candidacy,” said Shritharan in his letter.

The MP, in his letter, referred to the peace talks brokered by the Norwegian government. That was between the Government of Sri Lanka and the militarily defeated Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). He also indicated that he had already made public statements both locally and in his engagements with diaspora organisations stressing the need to support the candidacy of the Tamil common candidate as he is of the view that none of the leading presidential candidates will agree to resolve the conflict. It is noteworthy that he had done so without any recourse to the Central Committee and of his own volition. On August 24, weeks before the party took a final decision, he met Tamil Common Candidate Ariyanenthiran in his residence in Jaffna and declared his support for his candidacy. Ariyanenthiran, who himself is a Central Committee member of the party, was announced as the Tamil Common Candidate on August 8 by a civil society-led initiative with the backing of other Tamil parties except ITAK.

Based on the understanding reached between seven political parties and seven civil society outfits on July 22 in Jaffna, the “Tamil Peoples General Council” was formed with the intention of fielding a common presidential candidate from the community to register their “protest marking the past grievances including the long-standing ethnic conflict which is yet to be resolved.” A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by Selvam Adaikalanathan of the Tamil Eelam Liberation Organisation (TELO), C.V. Wigneswaran of the Tamil Makkal Kootani, D. Siddarthan of the People’s Liberation Organisation of Tamil Eelam (PLOTE), N. Srikantha of the Tamil Nationalist Party, Suresh Premachandran of the Eelam People’s Revolutionary Liberation Front (EPRLF), P. Iyngaranesan of the Tamil Nationalist Pasumai Movement, and S. Venthan of the Democratic Cadres Party. Both TELO and PLOTE were part of the TNA earlier until the recent breakaway of the alliance. Civil society activists included T. Vasantharajah, S.C. Jothilingam, Prof. K.T. Kanesalingam, and R. Wigneswaran. The ITAK Central Committee which met on August 11 decided to call for an explanation from Ariyanenthiran over his decision to become the candidate without approval of the party.

Last Sunday’s Central Committee meeting proceedings are also of interest.

Since party leader Senathirajah informed the Secretary that he had fallen ill suddenly and was unable to attend the meeting as scheduled, it was decided that the party’s senior Vice President and now-defunct Northern Provincial Council chairman C.V.K. Sivagnanam should preside at the session. The first matter that was taken up for discussion was the common Tamil candidature. Of the 26 members present at the meeting, only five votes were cast—by MP Sanmugam Kugathasan representing Trincomalee (nominated following the vacant seat due to the demise of party leader R. Sampanthan), ex-NPC Minister Thambirasa Kurukularasa (Kilinochchi), Kanthasamy Selvarasa (Trincomalee), Sivakumaran Sriranjan (Kilinochchi) and Kanthaiah Kanagasingham (Trincomalee)—in support of the candidacy while four others did not take part in the process and remained silent.

It was decided by a majority vote not to support the Tamil common candidacy and he was urged to drop out of the race.

The next subject on the agenda was the report compiled by Sumanthiran on analysing the presidential manifestos of three leading candidates: President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa and NPP leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake which were released in the previous week.  Presenting the report, Sumanthiran suggested that the party extend support to Premadasa.  There were no other suggestions for any other candidates. The CC decided by a majority of 16 votes to extend support to Premadasa.

Coincidently Premadasa was in Jaffna campaigning when the announcement came from the ITAK meeting. Taking the microblogging platform X, previously known as Twitter, he posted a tweet to thank ITAK for its support. It said:

“Thank you for your support ITAK  @MASumanthiran. Together, we’ll create a future where everyone wins—a future with no racism, no discrimination and a future built on unity, strength, and shared purpose,” #StrongerTogether #FutureForAll”

However,  Senathirajah who was reportedly unwell to attend the CC meeting earlier refuted the decision taken by the party’s CC saying he was not informed of any such decision. Hours later, he reversed his decision agreeing with the one taken by the CC and reasserted the party’s support for Premadasa.

Premadasa Q&A

Postal voting for eligible categories of state sector employees began last Wednesday. Another development of significance was the formation of a political grouping by those who have quit the SLPP to support President Wickremesinghe. It is under the leadership of Dinesh Gunawardena with Ramesh Pathirana as the General Secretary of the new Podujana Eksath Nidahas Peramuna (PENP). For most SLPPers such a grouping was necessary since they proposed to contest the next parliamentary elections.

Like his onetime ally and now archrival, independent candidate Wickremesinghe, SJB leader Premadasa has also shied away from granting interviews to the national media in Colombo. In marked contrast, Wickremesinghe was interviewed by sections of the Colombo-based social media with a restricted outreach. Other than that, reportage of all his election activity has been carried out by media units. Last week, whilst in Jaffna, SJB leader Premadasa sat down for a question-and-answer session with editors based in the peninsula. He was in a jovial mood and a journalist explained it could be because he was happy that the ITAK had chosen to support his candidature. Some highlights of the session held at the Tilco Hotel:

=   His position on the 13th Amendment to the Constitution: I am committed to implementing 13A which will include land and police powers. This is enshrined in the Constitution.

      It was surreal that it was his father, the late Ranasinghe Premadasa who introduced the Pradeshiya Sabhas – a measure which Tamil political parties complained diluted 13A.

=   When his father reached the highest echelon in politics, the Executive Presidency, it was a Tamil strongly associated with him who was part of the assassination plot that killed him. Would that prejudice your view of the Tamil community?

=   A: This is a foolish question. Do you think that I lack the common sense to hold the whole Tamil community accountable for a crime committed by a single Tamil? Even if my father comes back alive, he won’t mistreat the Tamils. Actually, it was Tamils who helped my father to reach the top office- particularly the Pancha Lingams – the five Lingams. I don’t have a single such thought in my mind related to your question. My motive is to win the hearts of the Tamil people compared to my father. After my election victory, I’ll make you all realise this. I am a true Buddhist. I will implement the Buddha’s teachings on love and compassion about the Tamil community.

Another tribe that has been making contributions during poll times is the country’s astrologers. During the 2015 presidential election, one of them vowed he would shoot himself in the head if Mahinda Rajapaksa did not win. Another made public forecast about Rajapaksa’s victory. The former died this year. There were also interesting factors this time. Two different astrologers made forecasts of two leading candidates. They were guarded this time. Each, they said, had two horoscopes. According to one, he set to lose. The other showed prospects of victory. The joke was that two cannot win the same election. One is reminded of the French presidential election of 1969. In the fray were Alain Poher, Senate President and Georges Pompidou, a leading politician. A Sri Lankan vernacular newspaper devoted to astrology ran as the front-page lead story, ahead of the elections, that Poher would be the winner. However, Pompidou won, causing embarrassment. However, the Editor had his way later by saying it was indeed Pompidou he had forecast though the horoscope was mistakenly identified as that of Poher.