Columns

• People are brought to rallies in buses from faraway places, but attendance is still not large
• Political science professor says political literacy among young voters has grown
• Sept 21 poll outcome will change the country’s political landscape

By Our Political Editor

This phenomenon encompasses several interesting facets, not manifest before, and is reflected in many parts of the country. Among some of the salient features are:

• The fact that a presidential poll this time around is not visible as one drives from Colombo to this sacred city, the neighbouring districts and their hinterland.
• There is hardly any activity, and different candidates’ offices that are operational are far away and few. This perhaps explains why there is relatively less voter interest in attending rallies of different candidates, particularly those held by formidable contestants.
• There have been no major violent incidents. This was confirmed in Colombo by Election Commission Chairman R.M.A.L. Ratnayake. This again seems to be caused by the seeming lack of interest among voters to actively participate in campaigns with a “deep commitment” to espouse the cause of their respective candidates. Resultantly there has been a lesser number of “political militias.” In the past, it was no secret that ‘recruits’ had to be cared for—with liquor, food and an attractive per diem allowance. It is toughies in a particular area who qualified most. They were shared by the contestants and rivalry was thus matched evenly. It appears to be much less.
• There are many “offices” with flags and posters adorning buildings that appear abandoned or with doors and windows shut. It has turned out to be a way of displaying posters which are banned.

EC Chairman Ratnayake told the Sunday Times the measures adopted in strictly enforcing election laws were a major factor. Even the Netherlands’ Ambassador Bonnie Horbach had raised the matter during a meeting in Colombo with EC members. She wanted to know why there was no major indications of an impending presidential election. Of course, there were other combinations of reasons too. The growth of social media is the main among them. It has served as a virtual platform. For the people, the proceedings of meetings were at their fingertips with the click of a button on their mobile phones.

Of course, they also became tools of misinformation and false propaganda. On the other hand,  some national media outlets have not been free of that accusation. The EC sent out letters of warning to them only last week.  Another is the public protests that saw the resignation of then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Those who took part in the protest campaign or Aragalaya, particularly linked to violent activity, came to the adverse notice of the Police. This has caused some hesitance among violence-prone groups.

These pictures from the Sunday Times photographer Pushpa Kumara show how the frontline candidates have decorated buildings with banners within a very short distance to one another.

Placing banners, photos of candidates, and even posters on closed or abandoned buildings have proliferated during the current presidential election campaign. Election officials believe it is prompted by their stricter enforcement of the ban on posters in public areas. Just a few kilometres outside Anuradhapura, there were such displays one close to another backing independent candidate and President Ranil Wickremesinghe, Samagi Jana Balawegaya candidate Premadasa and National People’s Power candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake.

The quietness in Tambuttegama, just 24 kilometres from here, is telling. A ten-minute drive away from the town is a Mahaweli settlement. One of those houses, a few hundred metres away from a playground, is the birthplace of NPP leader Dissanayake. On one side is a forest and in front is a stream.  His mother lives there and often receives visits from her son. Though feeble, relatives escorted her to a crowded meeting in the area addressed by her son. Whenever he is in the area, a relative said he would visit the mother and spend time with her. There is no political office of any candidate in this area and life goes on as usual. The only visible NPP office is nearly two kilometres away.

Other than that, life continues as usual. Every few hundred metres along the highway from here to Kandy, farmers have makeshift sales outlets. Vegetables and fruits, particularly Durian and Watermelon, are a common sight. That was proof that the farmers have had a rich harvest. Harvested paddy is strewn on the road to dry. It was also proof that there has been a marked turnaround from the days when there was an acute shortage of chemical fertiliser, the result of a ban imposed by then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

“There is a silent interest among voters. They will go to the polling booths, over 70 percent of them. It is clear they want a change of government,” said Professor G.D.R.U. Abeyratne, Head of the Department of Political Science at the Peradeniya University. He said that the lack of public manifestation of a presidential election and the absence of crowds at rallies were proof that political literacy has grown. This is particularly among young voters. There is also an abhorrence of violence. There have been instances of threats, intimidation and assault of civilians in the south, particularly Ambalangoda and Kosgoda which are smaller incidents. The seemingly apparent lack of interest should not be misconstrued, he cautioned and added that there has been a complete change in the voter. They are much more enlightened now, he pointed out. Professor Abeyratne said all formidable candidates are transporting crowds in buses. In one instance, a rally in Galle saw large crowds being carried in buses from far-off places like Puttalam, he said. “This is a menace that must be curbed. It is time that a future government introduces legislation to prevent it,” he said. He added that another aspect that must be prevented with new laws is house-to-house canvassing by different groups. “I have seen supporters of different candidates visiting houses. They are paid for and looked after by rich mudalalis. When a candidate wins, these mudalalis are rewarded with favours,” he pointed out. Now that our electorate has become more literate, such features are not necessary, he declared.

A drive from Anuradhapura along the Padeniya highway to Kandy, nearly 121 kilometres, last Monday reveals the story of how crowds are transported. At Mawatagama, (Kurunegala district) the town is bedecked with the SJB’s green and yellow. Tucked away in a small playground, partly hidden from the road by tall buildings, is a stage from which party leader Premadasa was due to address the crowd. He was expected there, after he took part in a rally in Kandy. A little distance away, a small crowd in rows of three and two march along the highway towards the playground. They carry flags and photographs of Premadasa. Further away on the highway, on one side, more than 22 buses remain parked. Most of them had come from areas which were 30 or 40 kilometres away. They bear the SJB flag. Yet, the turnout was not enough to fill the small playground.

Reaching Kandy by evening, more crowds had turned up at a small ground area behind the Municipal Market in Kandy town. At the scene, a police officer estimated the crowd to be anything between 4,500 and 5,500. It was sometime thereafter that Premadasa arrived. Here, I counted 22 buses. Most of them had come from Digana (14.5 kilometres from Kandy) and Rambukanna (42 kilometres from Kandy). Premadasa, who was running late made a brief speech and was off to Mawatagama. The crowds, who were mostly transported, would have had to wait nearly hours for him to arrive. Yesterday, Premadasa addressed a meeting at the Sellamuthu Stadium in Manipay, Jaffna. He was later due to attend a musical show where Indian artistes have been invited to participate. He was also due to address a meeting at a hotel in Nallur. Also in Jaffna yesterday was President Wickremesinghe.

On Tuesday, NPP leader Dissanayake addressed a rally in Kegalle. On the bypass road that helps motorists to skip the town area were rows of buses parked. I counted 48 of them. There were four more at least two kilometres away. A distinguishing feature of these buses is the presence of a red flag jutting out from the last row of windows. Supporters of independent candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe also hired buses to transport crowds to rallies. However, there were no major rallies around the time I visited the area.

Whilst on the campaign trail, it is inevitable that a close look at what the formidable candidates say becomes relevant. To begin with, in general terms, independent candidate Wickremesinghe’s campaign strategy could be dissected into three main segments. In the beginning, he focused attention on his achievements on the economic front. He spoke at length about how he took measures to reverse a deteriorating economy. This was through his successful talks with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), paving the way for the extended credit facility. He then switched to pledges. He offered pay increases for those in the state sector, promised to establish community villages for plantation workers and a variety of other promises. Yesterday, he offered to reduce the PAYE tax and allow the import of vehicles. The third segment was different and unrelated. He went on to criticise fellow contestants Premadasa and Dissanayake. It is clear from these three segments that he had no focused strategy on one issue or a cohesive line of attack to challenge their credibility. The question that arises is how much of an impact his strategy had on the minds of the voter.  Will only the wide array of promises he made work?

This brings us to NPP candidate Dissanayake. He has also made promises. One is to remove the Value Added Tax from all medical items if he is elected President. Other highlights of the pledges made were reported in these columns last week. In brief, he wants to withdraw free housing in Colombo for former presidents, issue utility cars for ministers instead of luxury ones, to restrict the cabinet of ministers to not more than 25 and withdraw security for those who had no threats. The question is whether they are appealing to the voter. So it seems when compared with his immediate rivals.

Addressing a rally in Narammala in the Kurunegala district, Dissanayake said, “Sri Lanka’s people have been fooled by politicians for a prolonged period. The politicians gained power by making false promises. They said they would make the country the wonder of Asia. But we have experienced these wonders in the past two years. People believed that they would create the best country in Asia and voted for them. It was after a short period they gained power they started fooling the country. People are tired of seeing the changes in the government.

“Both Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa never expected there would be a change in the minds of the people. People believed that when Mahinda (Rajapaksa) loses, Ranil (Wickremesinghe will win and when Wickremesinghe loses Sajith (Premadasa) will win. But today both are facing tension. The reason has been the rise of the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (NPP) which has turned into a mass movement. Though Wickremesinghe addresses me as a friend, when we come into power. We will go ahead with the investigations of the Central Bank fraud. We will investigate the issue of liquor permits. He will then understand how close friendship is. Similarly lands were issued from an estate in Kandy to an SJB member. These are the corrupt deals. We will win the election on September 21 and dissolve Parliament.”

Addressing the business community in Anuradhapura, Wickremesinghe declared, “The old political axiom which spoke of “we catch thieves, they don’t catch thieves” is not valid for the country today.” Wickramasinghe said the policy should be announced to the country and pointed out that the people should not hand over their future to sloganeering leaders. He said the people should come forward to inquire intelligently.

“When an economy is broken, a country is lost. There was a very powerful kingdom. But when the economy was broken, there was no kingdom. Then we again established kingdoms in the wet zone. If it happens, the country will be lost. We reached that level in 2022. To the people of that day, it became impossible to live. So, I took the responsibility for this country. The other leaders were afraid to take over at that time. They said my political future would be lost. To have a political future, the country must be saved. We all came together to build the country. Today we have a stable economy in this country. Today, the people have gradually received relief. To give relief to the people by reducing the price of goods was possible because we got more income this year. There is a possibility. Wages will be higher for public servants and private sector employees. Steps are being taken accordingly.

“We have established economic stability in the country in two years. But still the economy is not fully strengthened. We can’t let the economy crash again. We will have to continue this programme for another 5-10 years. We must decide in this presidential election whether to consolidate the economic stability we have achieved or to fall back. This is an election that will decide the future of the people. To ensure the economic stability of the country, we will continue to have an export economy. Today, Sajith and Anura are only offering empty words. In 2022, when people were suffering in long queues, they were nowhere to be found. Now they claim they should be entrusted with the future of the country, but I know the people are not ready for that. Let’s come together to develop the country. I urge everyone to vote for the gas cylinder on September 21 and support this movement for progress.”

Addressing a Puluwan Sri Lanka meeting later, he said, “We must move to an export economy to repay the debt we have taken. But Sajith Premadasa says everything will be given free. When he goes around, he gives even a headache free. They cannot make one budget. It is said that the price of goods will be reduced once more. Also, former Agriculture Minister Anura Kumara Dissanayake calls for an export economy. But his election manifesto says free trade agreements will be cancelled. Foreign markets without free trade agreements offer no opportunities. They should keep that in mind. Also, Sunil Handunetti accused me of being against an export economy, but I was asked to come to a debate. Anura, first, you should debate the right economic policy. I told them to tell the country what their economic policy is. After that tell the people their policy on the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”

Addressing a rally in Talawa in the Kurunegala district, independent candidate Wickremesinghe said, “Sajith Premadasa is no longer in the United National Party. Let him defeat Anura Kumara. Anura Kumara Dissanayake was created by Sajith Premadasa. The competition in the country was between two. Between two people as government and opposition. The match was on. Do not allow a second person to know the government person. The opposition leader should know how to control other parties. J.R. Jayawardene, when he was the leader of the opposition, did not allow anyone else to come.  When Ms. Bandaranaike became leader of the opposition, she did not allow anyone else. But Sajith allowed it. That’s why Anura Kumara, who had 2% at the last presidential election, got up and came. Now Anura Kumara has become a threat to Sajith. Sajith will not win. The vote cast for Sajith helps Anura Kumara.”

SJB leader Premadasa, on the other hand, has made commitments on an area-based basis. That again has largely been a wide assortment of pledges. For example, in speeches he made in the north, he promised to enforce the 13th Amendment to the Constitution in full. That would mean granting police and land powers to Provincial Councils, an issue over which political parties have remained cautious since the constitutional provision was enacted in 1978. Unlike the campaigns of both Wickremesinghe and Dissanayake, Premadasa’s one has been with little or no interaction with the national media. News releases have been scarce and news conferences have been scarcer. Here are a few more of the Premadasa’s pledges:

=   Creating National schools for tea estate workers’ children  (Nuwara Eliya Rally September 08)

=   Making tea estate employees owners of small tea estates (Nuwara Eliya Rally September 08)

=   Set up a university at Nuwara Eliya (Nuwara Eliya Rally September 08)

=   Creating a presidential task force to investigate the issues of police and three forces (Tuesday, Sep 10 at Diwedena Ranaviru war hero’s convention)

=   A presidential task force to improve tea industry (Baddegama Rally Thursday 12)

=   Creating 1 million entrepreneurs under an SJB government

=   Create skills development centres for the Youth in Kalutara (Kalutara rally September 13)

=   Extending the Expressway project up to Dambulla

=   The interest rate for deposits for senior citizens will be restored to 15 percent per annum. (Colombo Sep 11)

=   The poor will be paid an allowance of Rs 20,000

It is strikingly clear that Premadasa, who remained the Leader of the Opposition or the leaders of his SJB did not formulate a cohesive campaign strategy and instead chose to lay more emphasis on election pledges. It is the same for independent candidate Wickremesinghe, who chose at the penultimate stages of the campaign to direct barbs at Premadasa and Dissanayake. That way, both candidates have contributed little to focus on the one who has emerged as a main rival by challenging his credibility. Did they fail to do their homework?

The outcome of the September 21 presidential election is sure to change the political landscape of Sri Lanka. After all, it is a literate electorate which have now learnt to make mature judgements about who will be their leader. There will sure be plenty of lessons to learn.