Columns

• Sajith meets diplomats and, in controversial request, urgesthem to push for a curfew
• International Crisis Group believes the winner won’t get a majority vote and highlights the importance of eradicating bribery and corruption
• The first challenge for the newly elected president will be the budget and fulfilling pledges in his manifesto

Frontline candidates after casting their votes yesterday: From left Ranil Wickremesinghe, Sajith Premadasa, Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Namal Rajapaksa

By Our Political Editor

asily, it was the most expensive and vigorous by three frontline candidates among 38 of them. Yet, there was an apparent lack of public interest. Unlike previous occasions, signs that a presidential election was ahead were not openly manifest. A handful went from house to house to canvass support and distribute leaflets. A 56-day campaign saw cheering crowds transported in buses to bolster rallies. Media campaigns peaked with pledges. Candidates poured scorn over their rivals.

That in essence formed the backdrop to the presidential election which was held yesterday. Most of the country’s 17.1 million voters trekked to 14,314 polling stations to elect the ninth executive president. A team of 200, among them European and Commonwealth representatives, monitored the exercise. By last evening, counting of votes began in 49 centres countrywide. They were being fed by 1,719 counting halls where the ballot papers were being collated as a prelude to the count.

In an unexpected development, candidate Sajith Premadasa, Leader of the Opposition and the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), sought the declaration of a curfew today. He told a gathering of Colombo-based diplomats at the Taj Samudra Hotel on Thursday evening that they should mount pressure on the government towards the declaration of a curfew. Journalists were not allowed to cover the event.  The diplomats were specially invited for the purpose. A high-ranking security source, who spoke on grounds of anonymity since he is not authorised to make public comments, said such a move was considered inadvisable since there had been no indications or intelligence warnings of impending major incidents of violence. Moreover, adequate security measures have been adopted to ensure that the people’s normal life is not disrupted. In fact, on Thursday, President Wickremesinghe chaired a National Security Council (NSC) meeting where security measures during the post-election period were discussed in detail. For the first time in the history of the National Security Council, the pivot of the security establishment in Sri Lanka, media statements and SMS messages put out by the President’s Media Division were accompanied by photographs of the meeting in session. This is whilst Premadasa had discussed with retired senior military officers who are backing him about the need to introduce a curfew.

A man who is aspiring to be the next president of Sri Lanka, Premadasa may have been better advised not to approach the Colombo based diplomatic community over a domestic national security issue. He should have publicly addressed the President who is the Commander-in-Chief and in charge of the Police at the apex. That could have been followed up with an open statement. If Premadasa was reluctant because Ranil Wickremesinghe was a rival candidate, he could have written to either the Defence Secretary or the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) of the armed forces. They could have held them to account if anything were to go wrong. Of course, he gets caught up here.

Some were reluctant to intervene for fear it could boomerang on them. Some feared the likelihood of being wrongfully accused of promoting claims that had overtones of conspiracies though there may be none. There were also others who feared it could be construed as an interference in the conduct of the election, an internal matter for Sri Lanka.  In his appeal to the diplomatic community, Premadasa was unable to cite specific instances of why he feared a breakdown in law and order. What is the evidence? Should he become the President, is he not allowing the diplomatic community in Colombo to ask him to act on contentious issues? That does not bode well for him or the security establishment and to say the least, the request is irresponsible. If he had not wanted to resort to the many options available to him, a senior security official said, he could have even called a news conference and expressed his apprehensions. In the alternative, he also had recourse to the Election Commission or the international monitors, the official said.

The Government last night imposed a police curfew which began at 10 p.m. and ended at 6 p.m. today. This was a precautionary measure, a police officer said.

Campaign ends on Wednesday

Candidates ended their campaigns by midnight Wednesday making way for the silent period on Thursday and Friday. The final rallies of three formidable candidates—National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, Opposition and Samagi Jana Balawegaya Leader Sajith Premadasa and President and independent candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe—ended in Colombo.

In the final rally at Nugegoda, Dissanayake said the people closely scrutinised the present election with great anticipation. He said his rivals Premadasa and Wickremesinghe had indulged in “mudslinging” campaigns against him and his party. He expressed confidence of an NPP victory and said the party had strategically formulated a plan to rebuild the country. An NPP government would fulfil the aspirations of the people. He also revealed that his party had obtained the assistance of retired members of the armed forces and the police towards the people’s cause.

At the final SJB rally in Maradana, Premadasa declared that he would not use public funds for his upkeep as president. He forecast that the SJB would win with a margin of more than two million votes. He asserted that there was a need to respect opposing views and to protect those propounding them. Harassment, he said, was not an answer. He pledged to root out corruption and charged that the current government thrived on bribes and commissions. The proliferation of bribery and corruption at the highest levels of government reverberated at most political rallies. Premadasa promised to bring to justice those responsible for forcing Sri Lanka into bankruptcy, particularly the Rajapaksas, and recover stolen public assets. “Ranil shrunk the economy, and people are suffering without even three-square meals. Some have lost their livelihoods and there is no one to represent them,” he lamented.

Addressing the final rally at the Grandpass junction in Colombo central, independent candidate Wickremesinghe announced, “We will sign an agreement with private creditors.” This was the third group, and he declared it would end Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy.”

“I have completed the first phase of rescuing Sri Lanka from bankruptcy,” the President said, referring to his negotiations with major global financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, which helped re-structure the country’s debt. “We have reached an agreement with 17 countries and started discussions with China to manage our debt. The private bondholders’ deal will be finalised and in two weeks, the IMF will declare Sri Lanka officially free from bankruptcy,” Wickremesinghe said.

International Crisis Group observations

This week, the Belgium-based International Crisis Group released its latest report titled “Political Aftershocks of Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and the IMF Recovery Programme.” Dealing with corruption, the report said, “Corruption is widespread in Sri Lanka and ‘has been a major factor’ in its economic collapse, according to a former top official. In one of its few politically popular sections, the IMF agreement committed the government to addressing “corruption-related vulnerabilities”, including by allowing the IMF staff to conduct a Governance Diagnostic Assessment (GDA), the results of which it agreed to publish.

“Released on 30 September 2023, the report offers a damning indictment of institutionalised corruption and the economic losses it entails. “Governance and corruption issues have imperilled national and social well-being,” the 139-page report argues, with “impunity afforded top officials, even for ruinous behaviour”. Concrete recommendations focus on the need to enhance transparency of government financial operations, especially with regard to procurement contracts; establish more effective monitoring and accountability within state institutions; and make easily available the information needed for civil society and parliament to track the use of public funds……”

This is how the report concludes: “Two years on from economic and political meltdown, Sri Lanka’s crisis is far from resolved. Despite improved macroeconomic indicators and the disappearance of most signs of turmoil, hardship remains acute and widespread. Amid an uncertain economic outlook, political volatility is high; it could rise still further as the country approaches a presidential election and embarks on a series of other polls, including parliamentary elections some time before August 2025.

“Many of Sri Lanka’s international development partners placed a bet on Wickremesinghe’s ability to bring stability through top-down fiat. But pushing through a painful set of economic policies without the democratic backing gained through elections, while also paying little heed to demands for greater equity in budget cuts, tax rises and tariff hikes, or for more boldness in fighting corruption or reforming governance, has stirred a public backlash. Opinion polls and initial campaigning suggest the 21 September presidential election will be close. For the first time ever, it could produce a winner who fails to gain a majority of votes. Either a victory or a narrow defeat of the leftist NPP’s candidate could stoke tensions. Should either the NPP’s Dissanayake or the SJB’s Premadasa win, the government will likely face high expectations of a respite from austerity that will be hard to meet within the current terms of the IMF bailout.

“Regardless of who eventually wins, political parties and civil society organisations should seize the opportunities presented by the IMF programme to reinforce the anti-corruption fight while recrafting the state’s relationship to the economy in ways that can produce inclusive growth. With its own reputation at stake, the Fund, in coordination with its contributing member states and other multilateral institutions, needs to assist whichever government comes to power to implement the deal in the most equitable, fair and transparent way possible. The IMF will need to be willing to revisit elements of its reform programme, including through a new debt sustainability analysis that could help deliver the additional relief needed for Sri Lanka’s recovery to be economically and politically sustainable. The Sri Lankan economy may for now have been put back on its feet, but many citizens have yet to be convinced that the price has been worth paying.”

This week, the Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption (CIABOC) obtained a court order to prevent Ramith Rambukwella from using two flats he had acquired, one for Rs 80 million and the other for Rs 60 million. He is the son of former Health Minister, Keheliya Rambukwella, who was released on bail only recently after seven months in remand custody for alleged financial irregularities in the import of vital drugs. One of the charges against him is that he allowed the import of phials of water instead of the drug immunoglobin. Ramith served as private secretary to his father.

Complaints against Wickremesinghe

Another development has been Centre for Monitoring Election Violence’s (CMEV) “summative report” released this week. The lengthy report has accused the government of the “systematic abuse of state power and resources.” It has accused candidate Wickremesinghe in this regard – a charge which a presidential spokesperson strongly denied. He said the measures referred to followed decisions made by the cabinet of ministers.

The CMEV said it had made formal complaints to the Election Commission regarding the serious violation by candidate Wickremasinghe, of Sections 78 (Undue Influence) and 79 (Bribery) of the Presidential Election Act No 15 of 1981, as  well as of core clauses of the Code of Conduct for candidates. These complaints include the decision to raise state employees’ salaries with effect from 2025 publicized on the eve of the postal voting period, introducing tax reduction regulations and removing restrictions on vehicle imports, as well as sacking deputy ministers who did not support his presidential campaign. The abuse of power by provincial Governors is a serious concern, as they operate directly under the President, and have even wider powers in the absence of elected provincial or local government representative.”

The Election Commission expects that the results of yesterday’s elections will be known by later this evening. However, they say it could entail a further delay if they were compelled to count preference votes if a candidate has not polled the required 50% and one vote.

Close fight

There were strong indications yesterday that there was a close encounter between Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Sajith Premadasa to be elected as President. They show that independent candidate Wickremesinghe is trailing as a close third. However, staffers of Wickremesinghe, who had carried out the most intense campaign among all candidates, termed the claims “misinformation” and challenged this position. They said that a large volume of the “undecided voters” were to cast their votes for him. They say this will ensure his victory.  Of course it must be remembered that exit polls have a wide margin of error. The Indian elections early this year, to the Lok Sabha, is a good example. Exit polls gave the ruling Bharathiya Janatha Party (BJP) a win of more than 380 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. But the party only won 240 seats.

Among these reports were also claims that Anura Kumara Dissanayake is in the lead for many days now. That sent shockwaves among other immediate rivals.  A television channel which staunchly backed Sajith Premadasa invited Mahinda Rajapaksa, a former President and gave him airtime to castigate the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) led NPP. His concern is understandable. The NPP has declared it would withdraw all state houses used by former presidents. His official residence at Wijerama Road was renovated with extensions to encompass another state residence at substantial cost. Facilitating the project at that time was President Wickremesinghe. At the end of their sermon last Tuesday (Nikini Poya), Buddhist clergy in temples asked devotees to bear in mind that both the Buddhist flag and the religion were under threat. Some directly asked them not to vote for NPP whilst others said they should “vote wisely” considering the threats. This came in the backdrop of claims that the NPP manifesto made no reference to Buddhism. On Friday, during Jumma prayers in mosques, Imams ended their sermons with a warning to Muslims. They said they should vote “carefully” bearing in mind the ordeals the community faced in recent times. The allusion was to the cremation of Muslim bodies during the Covid epidemic. The General Secretary of Patali Champika Ranawaka’s United Republican Party (URF), Bandula Chandrasekera, sent out emails warning voters to be vary of left parties. He cited examples overseas where leftist governments had imposed hardships on the people.

Yesterday’s election marked what should have been the end of the term of Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He was elected at the 2019 presidential election winning with a record 6.9 million votes. However, in 2022, following the worst protests (aragalaya) the country faced, he fled Sri Lanka. He later sent in his resignation from Singapore. In keeping with constitutional provisions, Parliament elected Ranil Wickremesinghe on July 20, 2022, as the president to conclude Rajapaksa’s term. Since the general elections in August 2020, yesterday’s presidential election is the first to be held. Elections to provincial councils and local authorities have remained in limbo. The Supreme Court has now ruled that local authority elections should be held immediately without the disruption of the presidential election. When nominations ended for these polls, 80,000 candidates countrywide wanted to contest. Of this number, 700 are reported to have gone abroad and twenty have died. This has prompted calls for fresh nominations.

The first challenge for a new president after yesterday’s elections is the budget for 2025. Dissanayake has declared that he will go for a dissolution of Parliament if elected president. This means he would move for a vote on account to tide over for the months ahead and focus on a budget proper after the general elections. Though Sajith Premadasa has not commented on a dissolution, he has support in Parliament for the introduction of a budget proper. Then comes the biggest challenge of all—which election pledges would be their priority for implementation.

For Dissanayake, the pledges have been spelt out during his election campaign. He would go for ones that are popular with the people. An example would be the withdrawal of VAT (Value Added Tax) on medicines. The rationale behind the move is to make them affordable to poorer sections of the public. He could carry out the task, together with others, with the help of a caretaker cabinet. It would be a lot different in the case of Premadasa. Despite all his faithful denials, he has inherited considerable “unwanted political baggage” by allowing different persons to support his campaign. He was compelled to ask some who expressed support at the eleventh hour to stay away from his campaign. He must sort out positions for them. It is relevant to mention that some of those who joined him lately approached the NPP only to be turned away. These politicians only want to ensure they were with an entity that will enable them to return to Parliament. It must be remembered that Premadasa has the numbers in Parliament and may not feel it compulsory to dissolve Parliament.

A victory for Wickremesinghe will ensure the continuity of his government. There is already a cabinet of ministers in place. He is sure to allow Parliament to run the full term until August next year. That is to allow him time to introduce legislation over election pledges he has made. An order of priority will necessitate legislation being introduced. Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna founder Basil Rajapaksa left in the early hours of Friday to go to his home in Los Angeles. Former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa has left for Bhutan on a visit.

The outcome of yesterday’s presidential elections, no doubt, will see the birth of a new political culture from an educated electorate. This time around, more than the voters, it would be the candidates who will have a lot to learn. The answer to whether pledges alone will entice them will become clear.

Voter strength in each electorate

Here is a breakdown of the electors in each electorate in a district: