Columns

• Small groups went from house-to-house speaking mainly to women and urging them to come to the forefront
• For upcoming parliamentary elections, efforts to bring Ranil and Sajith together but little hope for success
• Devastating blow to SLPP; Candidate Namal loses Rajapaksa strongholds
• SJB dominates Northern and Eastern Provinces; NPP fares poorly

By Our Political Editor

Voters who earlier backed other candidates and the usual smaller number from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) contributed to the comfortable victory of National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake at the September 21 presidential election.

He secured only 418,553 or just 3.16 per cent of the votes in the presidential election in 2019. This is from 15,992,006 registered voters. The phenomenal increase to 5,634,915 or 42.37% from among 17,140,354 voters was not widely expected. He polled a further 105,264 as preference votes bringing the total to 5,740,179.

This was even considered not possible by other main contenders. Dissanayake secured 15 electoral districts that were won by former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the previous presidential election in 2019.  They are the districts of Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara, Mahanuwara (Kandy), Matale, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Moneragala, Ratnapura, and Kegalle.

The outcome was by no means a shock or surprise that came out of the blues. To the discerning in the country’s political firmament, the signs were clear. The JVP-led NPP has been gearing itself in practically all parts of the country for months. The Northern and Eastern Provinces were perhaps the only exception. There, the party went through the campaign rituals. Other front runners and “also-rans” had been holding rallies there too.

Early this year, the NPP began with a campaign to address those in the kitchen in households. That saw the birth of women’s rallies in different parts of the country. That overt exercise was followed by other covert measures—groups visiting homes and explaining to housewives that they should leave no room for suffering a second time. The allusion was to the aragalaya or 2022 protests where shortages forced most womenfolk to take to the streets. The then-President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who could not resolve their growing issues, fled the country. Incidentally, Rajapaksa who visited Bhutan on the eve of the September 21 election was in Nepal observing the developments in Sri Lanka. The NPP hearts and minds exercise worked. Women in large numbers attended their rallies. Other political parties laughed at the move and said they were all nothing but propaganda. There were also those who opined that Sri Lankans were a forgetful lot. Hence, there was no room for the emergence of a newcomer.

By the time the presidential election was announced, NPP groups had already moved into the countryside and set up grassroots-level organisations. A group that monitored their activities visited them periodically to ask if there were any shortcomings. They would say that remedial action would be taken. They even engaged in minor chores like taking a pregnant mother to hospital or run errands for poor families. That included visits to the pharmacy to obtain medicinal drugs. Ironically, the branch organisations of major political parties—the United National Party (UNP), the Samagi Jana Balavegaya  (SJB) and even the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna  (SLPP)—were not existent in most areas. In other words, there was no grassroots-level footprint. They were all blissfully oblivious to the development.

It may be recalled that the UNP had a special convention at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium in late August last year. The issue of strengthening grassroots-level UNP branches came up. President Wickremesinghe, the leader, at that time, underscored the advance in internet technology and noted that they obviated the need to focus attention at the grassroots level. However, after he was placed third securing 2,299,767 or 17.27% of the votes, onetime UNP stalwarts rallied around to unite the party with the breakaway SJB. The argument was that the 4,363,035 or 32.76% votes secured by SJB leader Sajith Premadasa together with that of Wickremesinghe would have prevented a Dissanayake victory. Premadasa also won 187,867 preference votes bringing his total to 4,530,902. Hence, it was pointed out that a UNP and SJB combination would ensure a victory at the upcoming parliamentary general election on November 14. The Election Commission will accept nominations from October 4 until noon on October 11. In fact, Wickremesinghe himself endorsed a group of his backers to begin an initiative.

One of the interlocutors was former Speaker Karu Jayasuriya, a veteran politician who has since retired from politics. He is now associated with the National Movement for Social Justice. It was when the dialogue was underway that UNP deputy leader Ruwan Wijewardene announced that Wickremesinghe would not contest the parliamentary elections. He told a news conference that Wickremesinghe would also not seek to enter Parliament as a national list MP. The idea was to convey that the UNP would consider Premadasa’s leadership if there was any form of accord.  UNP Chairman Vajira Abeywardena later added that “former President Ranil Wickremesinghe will definitely stand by the country when required.” That remark left the door open should Wickremesinghe choose to return to politics. Indications yesterday was that he will contest the parliamentary general election.

Sajith Premadasa rejected the moves almost moments after it was made. He said, “I will contest the next general election as the prime ministerial candidate of Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Every SJB MP and every electorate organiser directly requested me to present myself as the prime ministerial candidate. My name was not rejected, and this reflects our party’s commitment to democracy.”  He added: “I will not be forming any alliance with Ranil Wickremesinghe. There will be no room for anyone in the UNP if former President Ranil Wickremesinghe does not run in the upcoming parliamentary elections. This country is facing significant challenges. The electoral process is a vital part of democracy. We must be transparent and value the protection of democracy. The SJB is willing to work together with the President to sustain democracy and will cooperate for the nation’s progress,”

Salute and handshakes from Armed forces chief to the newly elected President, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, their Commander in Chief, when he arrived for the swearing-in ceremony. Right, Mr. Dissanayake being sworn in by Chief Justice Jayantha Jayasuriya on Monday.

Those remarks have effectively ruled out any merger of the UNP and the SJB. Yet, the fact that Wickremesinghe was still trying to “resurrect” the grassroots-level organisations of the UNP, in the aftermath of the defeat at the presidential election, has set off tremors elsewhere. A ding-dong controversy has broken out between him, his backers and the group of SLPPers, mostly ministers, who walked out of their party to support him. They are now ‘stranded’ and are accusing him of “letting them down.” Wickremesinghe backers have reacted angrily to such accusations and have pointed out that those concerned could not bring substantial number of votes to Wickremesinghe. Now the former SLPP group is on the lookout for a recognised political entity to join so they may get elected to Parliament. Some are making overtures to return to the SLPP fold. One from the south, who approached the leadership, has been turned down. Another from the North Central Province sought the help of a friend who is close to the leadership.

This development has also seen the virtual end of the alliance they formed under the leadership of former Prime Minister, Dinesh Gunawardena. Titled Puluwan Sri Lanka with a grand ceremony at the Water’s Edge, it numbered 34 parties and groups. Then they vowed to support Wickremesinghe. Almost all constituents are not in favour of joining the UNP and thus extending support for Wickremesinghe. The drawbacks of Wickremesinghe’s campaign strategy were highlighted in these columns many times. It was easily the most intense and costly. Unfortunately for him, his media pundits, with little  or no experience in conducting a major campaign, focused mostly on social media. Often the material disseminated raised serious questions. An example is how Wickremesinghe’s rallies at the final stages of the campaign were presented as “victory rallies.” How could there be a victory rally before the voting took place? An advertisement in a social website in Sinhala asked “why worry ? Ranil has won.” This was even before the votes were cast. It will be worthwhile for the UNP leadership, particularly leader Wickremesinghe, to commission a study on how his media team failed him despite large sums of money being spent. That is the only way he can learn from past mistakes in the field of propaganda.

There is a tragic irony in Wickremesinghe’s case. He literally snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Unfortunately, this phenomenon seems to persist in him. When he became president in 2022, he had won encomium countrywide for seeking the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) support which he singularly obtained and thus restoring some stability to the yet ailing economy. He also won world acclaim for the way he handled issues. Alas, he frittered away all this during his two-year rule with a catalogue of serious mistakes. Unfortunately overriding adamancy in handling issues was his major failure. He was left surrounded by hurrah boys and cheering squads in his media division. Surprisingly, the latter had dubious Sri Lankan web operators from a European capital.

THE SAGA OF
SAJITH PREMADASA

When he lost the presidential election of 2019, a lesser-known fact is that Sajith Premadasa telephoned winner Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He could not contain his emotions and broke down. At that time, Premadasa told his confidants that he would streamline the SJB and make it a strong political party. Little changed. There is no deputy leader and Premadasa continued to chart his own course. His focus remained providing equipment to schools though there were no votes there. A dialogue with a group of political parties and groups was arrived at with a decision to form the Samagi Jana Sandanaya (SJS) ahead of the presidential election.

However, a regular dialogue was far and few with his own senior-level members. The party had no machinery to disseminate information. This was why seniors like Harsha de Silva and Eran Wickremeratne had their own media offices. There have been instances where de Silva’s news releases were put out with headlines and sub heads. Sections of the media ran them in the same format.

Senior party members complain that Premadasa had only the ears of two persons who are not members. One of them used the club located in a five-star hotel to brief backers on campaign work. No party members were involved. They complained it was not possible for them to raise issue since those were described as “sensitive” areas. They point out that this was evident even during the conduct of the election campaign in provincial towns.

It was ahead of the presidential election that Premadasa formed the Samagi Jana Sandanaya. (SJS). It was made up of: All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) led by MP Rishad Bathiudeen, the Tamil Progressive Alliance (TPA) led by Mano Ganesan. The  National Union of Workers led by Palani Thiagambaram (MP), the Upcountry People’s Front led by V. Radhakrishnan, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress led by Rauff Hakeem, the Humane Peoples Alliance led by Prabha Ganesan, the Ekasath Jana Raja Peramuna led by Champika Ranawaka, the Eksath Lanka Janatha Pakshaya, Nawa Sri Lanka Muslim Pakshaya, Eksath Liberal Pakshaya, Mawubima Jaithika Peramuna, United Left Front led by President’s Counsel Jayampathy Wickramaratne. Former minister Kabeer Hashim was on Friday named the secretary of this alliance.

The campaign, SJBers noted, was structured to follow mostly Ranil Wickremesinghe declarations. Largely, they said, he would match or improve on the promises made by the former President. There were hardly any news conferences. In one instance, when there was an in interview on a television channel that was backing him, copies were made later deleting what he felt were  “too strong.” The leadership, they point out, is a “free for all.” The midnight before which Anura Kumara Dissanayake was declared winner, Harsha de Silva, posted on the X (former Twitter) a message congratulating him. There was no message from Premadasa even after the election. Any critical responses to then President Wickremesinghe against Premadasa was outsourced by the SJB leader to be handled by an MP from the Colombo district. This MP was unable to garner substantial votes from a Colombo electorate he represented. In other words, he lost. Premadasa retained the Nuwara-Eliya, Jaffna, Vanni, Trincomalee, Batticaloa, and Digamadulla districts he won in 2019. In addition, he secured Badulla district which he lost in 2019.

His future as leader now depends on the outcome of the parliamentary elections. The question is whether he will make way for a successor if he loses. Then again, the question arises as to who that would be.

VOTER RAGE AGAINST RAJAPAKSAS

The results had a debilitating effect on the Rajapaksas and their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). Namal Rajapaksa who was to emerge as their candidate after millionaire businessman and casino owner Dhammika Perera backed out, won only a paltry 343,781 or 2.57% of the votes. SLPP top-rungers had forecast that Namal would poll 1.5 million votes, which they opined, would amount to a win for the first-timer.

His low count shows that a voter protest over the 2022 shortages that resulted in the aragalaya or protests. This is further confirmed by another factor—he badly lost the electorates that were considered Rajapaksa home ground and dominated by them over the years. That included Hambantota, Mulkirigala, Beliatta, Tangalle and Tissamaharama.

His campaign was lacklusture. The only known figure in campaign platforms was his father and onetime president, Mahinda Rajapaksa. Namal told election rallies that it would take three years for him to eradicate bribery and corruption if he were to be elected president.  The question that looms is whether he will be able to have himself re-elected at the parliamentary general election.

SARVAJANA BALAVEGAYA AND SHAREHOLDERS

There are some interesting facts about candidate Dilith Jayaweera, businessman, lawyer and publisher. He was the leader of the Mawbima Janatha Party (MJP). In the period ahead of the presidential election, he carried out a political campaign in the name of this party.

Then came the formation of the Sarvajana Balavegaya on May 24. The signatories to the SB are the National Freedom Front led by former MP Wimal Weerawansa, the Pivithuru Hela Urumaya led by former MP Udaya Gammanpila, the Democratic Left Front led by former MP Vasudewa Nanayakkara, the Communist Party led by former MP G. Weerasinghe, the Yuthukama National Organisation led by Gevindu Kumaratunga and the collective of Independent MPs represented by former MP, Prof. Channa Jayasumana.

However, Jayaweera contested on the ticket of the Communist Party of Sri Lanka (CPSL). He polled 122,396 or 0.92% of the votes cast. Jayaweera declared that it was more than what he had expected. He did not secure any second preference votes.

One of the Sarvajana Balavegaya  spokespersons, Pivithuru Hela Urumaya (PHU) leader Udaya Gammanpila, declared weeks ahead of the presidential election that Jayaweera intended to garner the 6.9 million votes cast for Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the 2019 presidential election. The number of votes polled by Jayaweera, if divided among at least its eight partners, only works out to just over 15,000 votes.

Yet, Jayaweera and his party have secured a footprint in the political firmament and are likely to win a seat or two at the general election.

FIELD MARSHAL SARATH FONSEKA’S ENCOUNTERS

Field Marshal Sarath Fonseka’s rallies were poorly attended. In a bid to attract votes, he took along with him on a trailer the damaged vehicle in which he travelled when a Tiger guerrilla suicide bomber attacked him in May 2006. He then received serious injuries.

He secured only 22,407 or 0.17% of the votes polled.

NORTH AND EAST

The Northern and Eastern Provinces voted in large volume for SJB candidate Premadasa. He won five electoral districts in the two provinces. They are:

Jaffna District: Kankesanturai, Manipay, Kopay, Chavakachcheri, and Kilinochchi.

Vanni District: Mannar, Vavuniya, and Mullaitivu,

Batticaloa District: Kalikudah, Batticaloa, and Padiruppu.

Digamadulla District: Sammanthurai, Kalmunai, and Pottuvil.

Trincomalee District: Seruwila, Trincomalee, and Mutur.

Premadasa won the Jaffna electoral district by only 4,489 votes with rival candidate P. Ariyanenthiran trailing.

The Tamil Common candidacy promoted by Tamil nationalist political parties, except for the Ilankai Thamil Arasu Katchchi (ITAK) received only 1.69% of the votes in the polls. ITAK Central Committee member Ariyanenthiran contested as a Tamil common candidate and is now facing disciplinary action. He won the following electorates in the Jaffna district: Kayts, Vaddukoddai, Udupiddy, Point Pedro, Nallur and Jaffna.

The last time a common Tamil candidate was fielded was in 1982 when former MP, the late Kumar Ponnambalm, contested the polls and received 2.67 per cent of the votes. In the Vanni electoral district, Premadasa secured a higher margin, defeating his main contender, independent candidate Wickremesinghe by over 42,000 votes. Ariyanethran trailed in third place having received 36,377 votes or 16.74% of the votes cast.

Premadasa won all Vanni polling divisions. The tight race in the North is unique this time compared to previous elections where Northern voters rallied behind one candidate. In 2019 and 2015 they voted overwhelmingly for Premadasa and Maithripala Sirisena respectively. But in this election, no candidate received more than half of their vote.

In the East, voting patterns were more closely like trends in the South as the Tamil common candidate did not make it to the top three. Nevertheless, a difference is the better performance of Wickremesinghe over Dissanayake. In the Digamadulla electoral district, the Ampara electorate was the only one to vote for Dissanayake. In the Trincomalee district, too, the race in the Tamil and Muslim majority divisions of Mutur and Trincomalee was between Premadasa and Wickremesinghe while in the Sinhala majority division of Seruwila Dissanayake came second.

TOWARDS A NEW ERA

There is little doubt that the mounting incidence of bribery and corruption was the main issue during the presidential election. It is a malady that has inflicted successive governments. Cries of how a handful of politicians enjoyed a life of luxury whilst the public at large suffered reverberated in almost every opposition platform. That also formed the theme of what the NPP door-to-door campaigners told householders. They gave examples. Just this week, the price of an egg dropped by ten rupees. It became clear that it was the payback the importer had to give a politician to place for sale the eggs in the market. Now that there is a change in the administration, that was not necessary.

It is less than a week since Anura Kumara Dissanayake became the ninth executive president of Sri Lanka. The euphoria over his election and the victory of the National People’s Power continues to be reflected in all parts of the country. He made a string of appointments last week. Some of them, contrary to his own much-publicised claims of giving a place to those with merit, are being queried, for such postings allegedly have been made for personal reasons. Both the national media and even sections of the diplomatic community in Colombo, have entertained serious concerns. He cannot afford his declared policies to be thwarted even before his government goes into full gear. The voters who are now happy can turn against and that would be costly for a people’s President.

It is not always that the good work done by officials go unnoticed. Those in the Election Commission and the Police, besides others, should be commended for their role in an election that was trouble free. Voters who went to many polling booths also had words of praise for their helpful conduct.