Editorial

Hardly has one major election concluded and world leaders keep sending congratulatory messages to a new Executive President, the country is preparing for another election – arguably even more significant than the September 21 Presidential election.

No doubt last month’s election was to pick the Head of State and the Head of Government, but next month’s election is crucial for the newly elected Executive President, as he will be a lame duck, not the all-powerful leader that office is reputed to be, without a parliamentary majority.

Having dissolved Parliament to enable him to get that parliamentary majority, he got Rs. 11 billion earmarked by ‘Executive Order’—through his three-member Cabinet with parliamentary approval to follow; a kind of IOU basis where the Elections Commission will spend money on ‘tick’ to be settled later, largely with government agencies. He can’t be doing this all the time, as only Parliament has the authority to pass money.

With a Supreme Court order to hold local council elections asap and politicians who were vying for votes in the North pledging Provincial Council elections as well, this country is well on the way to spending Rs. 40 billion, if not more, for its mass of elected representatives.

If the newly elected President keeps to his party’s promise to abolish the office of the Executive Presidency and a Referendum is needed (in addition to the two-thirds in Parliament), another estimated Rs. 10 billion can be added to the bill to make it a grand total of five elections and Rs. 50 billion in estimated expenses from the public purse.

While the main opposition is gripped in personality politics, unable to come together to face the increasingly formidable challenge at the forthcoming parliamentary elections from the victors of the September 21 election, the victors are engaged in rubbing the noses of those they vanquished in the ground.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the anti-JVP/NPP vote last month is not going to align into one combined force that has the possibility of frustrating a parliamentary majority for the newly elected President. And the pronouncement to its supporters by a party leader that he will be the ‘Prime Ministerial candidate’ in the hope that it can win more seats than the President’s party next month and thus work in a cohabitation government with the President might be wishful thinking. They may well be looking at another five years in the opposition.

The JVP-NPP combine, in the meantime, has immersed itself in the customary display of reducing prices of foodstuffs and exhibiting the excesses committed by the former administration, from the use and misuse of vehicles to the occupancy of government bungalows. They are going down the same old path of forming committees to investigate past misdeeds—from the Central Bank bond scam to the Easter Sunday bombings. All these find traction with the masses, and the ‘good governance’ image has only to be maintained for a month and a half till they clear the parliamentary majority hurdle.

This week, however, the new dispensation learned that there is more to it than the theatrics of politicking; there is governance to be done as well. Campaigning and blaming domestic political opponents had to be set aside when the IMF and the Indian External Affairs Minister wasted no time in landing in Colombo to shake hands with the country’s new leadership and ascertain its way forward in its dealing with them.

One of the pragmatic decisions the ‘AKD Presidency’ has taken is to keep some of the key officials in-situ without ‘changing all the horses midstream’. This was particularly so in the areas of finance and foreign affairs so that there is continuity in the areas where the previous presidency maintained a success rate. Negotiations with the IMF to stabilise the economy and forging a balanced foreign policy that maintained good relations with Asia’s competing powerhouses, India and China, while softening the West, especially at the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, were key. The current political leadership in the country is not all that familiar with the nuances on these fronts and requires some guidance and expertise, which it is strongly advised to seek without blundering into the unknown.

The staff-level talks with the IMF from all accounts gave no hint of a major turnaround in Sri Lanka’s approach to its conditions for economic reform. It seems the visit was only a ‘getting to know’ drop-in, while the more detailed talks would be in Washington at the IMF headquarters. The twin elections have also delayed the third review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as the new government wants to ease the burdens placed on the people due to the IMF conditions while abiding by them for economic stability. Easier said than done. The IMF team had told the Dissanayake team that Sri Lanka had made progress in economic recovery “but vulnerabilities persist” and whatever they want to do ought not to add to budgetary pressures.

The talks with the visiting Indian Minister also seem to have been more of a ‘courtesy call’ nature with the official talks conducted over a working lunch. Some of the topics touched on were ongoing economic cooperation, cultural cooperation, India’s commitment to the neighbourhood; and the continuing saga of poaching by Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan waters.

Well beyond the shores, developments in West Asia are bound to have a seriously negative impact on Sri Lanka, not least on the country’s tea exports to its markets in that region, foreign employment, tourism due to flight cancellations, and the price of oil, which rose marginally during the week. If the COVID pandemic became a bad omen for the Gotabaya Rajapaksa Presidency once he came to office, the unfolding escalation of tit-for-tat battles between Israel and Iran might well be an ominous beginning for the AKD Presidency.

Then there is Geneva and the UNHRC. The new resolution against Sri Lanka is pending passage next week. Fortunately, for the new government, much groundwork has been done by its predecessor to ensure that nothing too drastic happens. With the Western sponsors of the resolution having tabled the new resolution demanding accountability and good governance, the text gives Sri Lanka another year to sort out issues.

The campaigning for parliamentary elections hasn’t got off yet as parties get their list of candidates ready for filing of nominations. In the meantime, the fledgling government will correspondingly need to find its feet in governance sooner than later.