Columns

• Many seasoned politicians out of the race—they include Mahinda, Ranil, Wimal and Champika
• Weerawansa warns new president of “Western imperial” schemes
• Champika accuses SJB of violating the deal with his party
• Namal chooses National List and abandons hometown electorates

By Our Political Editor

Friday’s nominations for the November 14 parliamentary elections mark the historic transition of a generation of political leaders to a new one. For varied reasons, many in the old guard are bidding goodbye and have chosen to stay away from Parliament.

Among them are Mahinda Rajapaksa who has been a politician for 54 years. He was the youngest MP elected from the Beliatte electorate in 1970. However, he will continue to lead the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). He last represented the Kurunegala district. The other is United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, whose political career has spanned almost fifty years. He will, however, address meetings for select candidates contesting under the New Democratic Front (NDF) symbol, the gas cylinder. A sizeable number of former parliamentarians, some senior, who backed the two leaders and their party have also stepped away registering a marked absence.

The mood in the ranks of those saying “farewell” is reflected by Kanaka Herath, a former minister whose last position was State Minister of Technology. The politico with an MSc in aviation and the holder of a private pilot’s licence declared “people needed a change at any cost” and therefore he was “taking a step backwards.” There were others against whom there were allegations of bribery or corruption.

President Dissanayake greets US Navy's Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Steve Koehler during a courtesy call

That is not all. In that transition lies another significant transformation. The election of Anura Kumara Dissanayake as the ninth executive president of Sri Lanka at the September 21 presidential election, signalled the beginning of a whole new era. Elected to the high office was not a person associated with elitism which was politically the tradition. It was a person who was on a campaign trail eating with comrades from the same buth (rice and curry) packet wrapped in banana leaf and catching forty winks between late night and morning meetings in the back seat of a double cab. That there will be more of the same types sitting in the next tenth Parliament is not in doubt. News footage showed National People’s Power (NPP) or Jathika Jana Balavegaya General Secretary Dr Palitha Abeykoon and Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) Secretary Tilvin Silva seated in front of a large flag emblazoned by a hammer and sickle watching would-be candidates signing nomination papers. Most were young and active members drawn from branches countrywide. That included those who have made their mark in local politics. Little wonder a Western diplomat quipped that their dispatches to the home country identified the government leadership as “leftist Marxists.” This could be a precursor to future reporting should the current ruling patterns change for the worse. Besides Bimal Ratnayake, a frontliner of the NPP, their national list is made up largely of university academics and businessmen. Most of them in the latter category have funded the JVP and thereafter the NPP after it was set up. There are others who have received plum appointments as a reward.

Quite clearly an older generation of politicians was making way for a brand new one whose character and personality are yet to morph into one. A source associated with the government, who did not wish to be identified, said their leaders were “noticeably clear not to mix up government matters with that of the party. They will work independent of one another.” That perhaps reflects a liberal and more West-friendly approach for the government, one that meets both domestic and international needs. The other is for the rank and file of the party to demonstrate that their ideals and philosophy have not changed. There are many who opine their paths may cross at some point of time.

Wimal’s statement

Another marked development is the absence of a nationalistic ideology that has dominated both the political landscape and Parliament during the past two and half decades or more. The two champion propagators have bowed out for varied reasons. One is Wimal Weerawansa, leader of the National Freedom Front (NFF). An excellent Sinhala orator, he and a handful walked out of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) in 2008. Though he gave no specific reason for his decision to stay away, a nuanced two-page statement he issued defended both Russia and China whilst praising President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. He also sounded a warning over entering into the controversial Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the United States. The remarks coincided with the visit to Colombo by US Navy Admiral Steve Koehler, Commander of the Pacific Fleet. He held wide ranging talks with President Dissanayake. The fact that the US is wooing the Dissanayake administration is seen by his virtual discussion with Samantha Power, Administrator of USAID. His critics say Weerawansa was not contesting for fear of being defeated. He awaits judgment in an asset declaration case.

Here is the NFF leader’s statement in full: “A new President has been elected in a free and fair election. Such a situation was not anticipated as seen by the travel advisories issued for tourists by some foreign governments. It is no secret that their desire was to ignite a conflict based on the results and turn the situation into one like Bangladesh. We apprised the people; government officials and political forces of the likely scenarios and countermeasures were taken to prevent such. We are sincerely happy and wish to extend gratitude to the President and the JVP for ensuring post-election peace.

“As per our political reading, the presidential election took place amidst a very critical global geopolitical climate and a deep economic and socio-political crisis locally. The Western imperialist nations’ offence against Russia using Ukraine as well as the tensions in the South China Sea against China have become a military obstacle for the imperialists. Similarly, the crisis in West Asia using Israel is turning into an irreversible one. At the same time, the dollar hegemony has collapsed because of Saudi Arabia not extending the 50-year agreement which gave US hegemony over the petroleum market using the dollar. In addition, the US-led NATO military alliance has faced tremendous issues because of the emergence of a new global financial system by BRICS nations which represent 40% of the world economy and 60% of the world’s population.

The SJB's Colombo District team led by leader Sajith Premadasa leaving the District Secretariat after handing in nomination papers

“This alliance is breaking the US dollar hegemony together with its member states. The “Financial Times” newspaper recently reported a historic public meeting by CIA’s intelligence head William Burns and Britain’s MI6 intelligence service head Richard Moore admitting the powerful challenges they were faced with in the 21st century. It is also no secret that whenever they are challenged their solution is to promote war across the world and place populations in crisis. Over and above this, the imperialist forces are greatly disturbed by Russia and China’s decision to reposition their nuclear and military power and their policy related to the use of nuclear power. Having failed to undermine the economies of both Russia and China, the intelligence of the imperialists is now focused on creating internal crises in those nations.

“This objective centres on the geopolitically significant world’s main shipping route which travels from South China Sea to the Atlantic Ocean through the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea, Sri Lanka’s positioning vis a vis this route will determine the future fate of Sri Lanka while the military tensions build up in the Indo-Pacific region. Their aspirations were not fulfilled in the seven regions they exerted influence over; however, they are likely to twist the arms of the newly elected President, though matters are determined by the awareness of the people and not influences of political forces. Some think that the new President can slip through both the US and Indian influences. However, what is clear is that the President’s journey is unlikely to be easy.

“The root cause of the economic crisis was created by the former President as Prime Minister in 2015 and escalated to the level of storming the President’s Office and residence and chasing out the elected President. Taking into consideration the global geopolitical conditions, Sri Lanka will be facing increased pressures from India for economic integration with a strategic objective to make Sri Lanka the 30th state of India. As a result of an agreement made by former President with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on July 21, 2023, the current President is under obligation to implement five economic integration initiatives including ETCA. The Statements issued by the Indian Foreign Minister on numerous occasions foresee Eelam and full implementation of the 13th amendment as aligned to that objective.

“The current President will be pressured to take the final decision on Annex “B” document as per negotiations on the US-SOFA agreement again initiated by former PM Ranil Wickremasinghe in 2019 which runs parallel to the Indian agenda.

“The American SOFA agreement presented to Sri Lanka has more serious differences than the agreements signed with the rest of the world.

“Accordingly, if Sri Lanka agrees to SOFA, the US military personnel entering Sri Lanka and the private companies providing services to them can roam and camp anywhere in the country. US soldiers will be allowed to enter Sri Lanka from any port in Sri Lanka without prior notice and can travel within the country with or without uniform, armed by air, sea or land. Sri Lankan authorities are prohibited from checking their vehicles or luggage and legal action cannot be taken if they violate the laws of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka can only make complaints to the US embassy. The President contested from an alliance that comprised the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna and a more liberal-Western backed NPP. It is without a doubt that a showdown of ideological differences between the two will emerge sooner than later.”

Champika Ranawaka’s exit

The other who took a strong nationalist approach was Patali Champika Ranawaka, a former cabinet minister. He is known in ministerial and official circles as one who extensively studied the subjects that he placed before the cabinet of ministers or during a discourse in parliament. An engineer by profession, he was also conversant with many subjects. The man who has founded party after political party succeeded recently in re-joining the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). This was with his latest find, the United Republic Front (URF). He was the strongest SJB voice criticizing Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the JVP and its parent body, the NPP. He often harked back to their role in the insurrections of 1971 and 1987 and was bitterly critical of Anura Kumara Dissanayake. So much so, the talk among SJB seniors was that the task had been outsourced to him by SJB leader Sajith Premadasa.

Last Thursday, Ranawaka accused the SJB of “unilaterally abrogating” the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) reached with his URF. Hence, he said, members of his party would not contest the parliamentary elections or align themselves with any other party or group. He told a news conference, “We worked with the expectation of contesting in many districts from the Samagi Jana Balavegaya  for this upcoming general election. For that, we based the August 14 MoU between the SJB and our United Republic Front. According to that agreement, we worked with the expectation of presenting candidates in eleven districts. But when we looked at the nomination process in the last few days, we realised that the MoU has been violated in a very serious way and that we cannot justify our membership.

“So that is why we thought that we would withdraw from this election campaign. We do not intend to antagonize the Samagi Jana Sandanaya in any way or to hold elections together with other parties. We will discuss this with other members of our party and other organisations in the future and decide the next steps. Currently, we are refraining from this election process and from presenting candidates for the election. We have already informed the SJB leaders in writing.

It is our belief that the message the country needs is a powerful parliament in which the executive is democratic to some extent and the executive is not subordinated to a single person. Therefore, the people of our country should be interested in it and vote. Similarly, a person who properly uses his preference is not a person who disappoints people. We convey the message that people who have experience and who are not subject to corruption should be sent to Parliament. After discussing with our party members and sub-organisations of the party, we will reveal the way forward in the future.”

It is not clear what Ranawaka’s plans are. Nevertheless, one factor that is certain is that he will not give up. It is also not clear whether he is the victim of circumstances or has made a calculated decision. However, that excludes his presence in the next parliament for at least the next five years.

SLPP’s fate

One is reminded of the Sinhala adage of being gored by a bull after a fall from a tree. The fate of Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) could be likened to that. It is not only its leader Mahinda Rajapaksa who is not contesting. His brother Chamal, a former Speaker, also will not contest. Chamal’s son, Shashindra, will contest from the Moneragala district.  Interestingly, Namal Rajapaksa, now the heir apparent of the SLPP and their presidential candidate, polled only 342,781 or 2.57 percent of the votes in the presidential election. Now, Namal Rajapaksa’s name is first on the National List. This raises an especially important question—what the position of the Rajapaksas of Giruwapattuwa will be? They held sway in the South for decades, until the September 21 presidential election. Namal Rajapaksa lost all the seats in the Hambantota district, the Rajapaksa home ground, at the presidential election. He now feels he cannot get elected and has opted for a national list slot. Here is how he fared in the presidential election in the homestretch:

MULKIRIGALA

Anura Kumara Dissanayake      41,086          47.48 %

Namal Rajapaksa                         6,250               7.22%

BELIATTE

Anura Kumara Dissanayake      34,321           53.43%

Namal Rajapaksa                         5,385              8.38 %

TANGALLE

Anura Kumara Dissanayaje       59,117          55.49 %

Namal Rajapaksa                         5,964              5.60 %

TISSAMAHARAMA

Anura Kumara Dissanayake      72,907          49.19 %

Namal Rajapaksa                         8,289               5.39%

SJB’s challenges

Among the contestants from the opposition, the most challenging role is faced by the SJB. Its leader and prime ministerial candidate Sajith Premadasa will have to explain to voters why he should be elected. The pledges he made during the presidential election have already been rejected by the voters. He is also fraught with the prospect of a challenge to his leadership if he and his SJB do not win enough seats. It must be borne in mind that the precursor to the NPP, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) polled 445,958 or 3.8 % of the votes in 2020 parliamentary elections. There was no NPP then.

As SJB leader and chair of the four-member Nomination Board, Sajith Premadasa had to do a lot of tightrope walking. One knotty issue came when Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC) leader Rauff Hakeem proposed that all constituent partners who form the Samagi Jana Sandanaya (SJS) should contest as SJB candidates under the telephone symbol. It was, however, strongly opposed by All Ceylon Makkal Congress (ACMC) leader Rishad Bathiudeen. The latter wanted his candidates to contest in two electorates and won in his plea. Hakeem is contesting the Kandy district together with Mohamed Haleem. The duo faced protests last week by voters in Harispattuwa. They carried placards with their name and the slogan “go home.”  Moreover, the opposition parties remain fragmented and have no single issue or theme to rally around. All this has made a victory for the NPP a certainty and the only question that lingers is one of whether it would gain a simple or a large majority.

A surprise development was the rejection by the SJB Nomination Board of the candidature of Akila Viraj Kariyawasam. A close confidant of former President Ranil Wickremesinghe, he represented the district of Kurunegala as a United National Party (UNP) MP. His application was taken up for discussion by the Board on Friday night. Ahead of the event, news spread about his change of allegiance. The SJB organisers for Hiriyala, Kuliyapitiya, Dodangaslanda and other party activists in the district turned up in Colombo for a meeting with their leader, Sajith Premadasa. They had threatened to quit the party if Kariyawasam was officially declared a candidate. One after another made presentations.

Gas cylinder

Efforts by former Prime Minister Dinesh Gunawardena to bring under the umbrella of his People’s United Freedom Alliance (PUFA) those who backed former President Wickremesinghe have failed. Hence, they will contest under the banner of the New Democratic Front with the gas cylinder symbol. Gunawardena is first on the national list. So is Ravi Karunanayake who represented Colombo North as an MP earlier.  Thus, the United National Party (UNP) is out of the fray and its members are also contesting under the NDF alliance, However, the Ceylon Workers Congress-led by Jeevan Thondaman has chosen to field candidates in the Nuwara Eliya and Wanni districts under the UNP’s elephant symbol.

The move appears to have piqued Navin Dissanayake,a former minister in both the Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena administrations. The man who served a short stint as Governor of the Sabaragamuwa province until the dissolution of Parliament contested the Nuwara Eliya district at four successive parliamentary elections. He charged that there was a “conflict arising over the UNP symbol being chosen as a gas cylinder instead of the party symbol elephant.”  Asserting that he will “not be associated with corrupt individuals,” Dissanayake claimed that the UNPers stand to lose out if they contest under the gas cylinder symbol. No doubt, it would be a dilemma for him. His candidature in the past was on the Elephant symbol. This time, he cannot seek votes on it for such votes will go to the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC).

The country’s worst protests in 2022 against the actions of then President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had three main elements that formed the slogans – Gota Go Home, the need for a system change and the call for the 225 MPs in Parliament to be changed. Gotabaya Rajapaksa has gone home, and a system change has occurred with the election of NPP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake as President. How much will change in the new parliament after the November 14 elections remains to be seen.

Govt.’s economic advisor says any revenue shortfall needs to be met by taxing the rich  The National People’s Power government has suggested to the International Monetary Fund that it would like to modify some of the reforms to cushion the impact of the negative growth over the last two years on the poor, a government advisor on the dialogue with IMF said yesterday. Shantha Devarajan, Professor of Practice of International Development, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University, briefly answered questions put to him by the Sunday Times. Here is the Q&A: How do you view the impending talks between the NPP government and the IMF on the Extended Fund Facility? What are the future prospects? These impending talks are part of the third review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) that Sri Lanka has with the IMF.  On the one hand, it is a routine, semi-annual review that is part of any EFF (the second review was in March 2024).  On the other hand, it is the first review with the newly elected government of President Dissanayake.  My expectation is that the talks will go well.  The IMF’s staff visit in August found that the Sri Lankan economy was making good progress, with three consecutive quarters of positive GDP growth, although there are more structural reforms to be undertaken.  The new government has suggested that it would like to modify some of these reforms to cushion the impact of the negative growth over the last two years on the poor. There should be a way of doing this while staying within the parameters of the overall fiscal adjustment programme, which is crucial for achieving debt sustainability and restoring investor confidence. Shantha Devarajan, Professor of Practice of International Development In retrospect, how do you view how the previous Ranil Wickremesinghe government engaged with the IMF? Overall, the Sri Lankan government has managed the engagement with the IMF and the creditors well.  The former President, the Central Bank Governor and the Secretary to the Treasury (the latter two are continuing in the new government), skillfully steered Sri Lanka from a debt default, nearly zero reserves, food and fuel shortages, and 70 percent inflation to a debt restructuring agreement, rising reserves, single-digit inflation, and growth. The main reason was the policies implemented by the government, which were (and continue to be) monitored by the IMF as part of the EFF (Extended Fund Facility). Equal credit should go to the Sri Lankan people, including civil society, think tanks, opposition leaders and the media, who questioned and debated these policies, leading to refinements and modifications, which gave some assurance that the reforms were broadly supported by the public. This questioning and debate should continue because that is the only way that reforms will be sustained. What in your view are the economic priorities for the new government? In my view, the highest priority should be to accelerate economic growth.  Sri Lanka’s GDP per capita is at the same level as it was in the mid-2010s. This indicates a “lost decade” in terms of economic welfare.  We owe it to the Sri Lankan people, who have suffered through this decade, to restore growth to the relatively high levels of the past.  To do so, Sri Lanka needs to open up more to foreign trade by reducing or removing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, which have increased in recent times.  When, in the late 1970s, Sri Lanka liberalised trade, the economy boomed.  But the trade ratio (the sum of exports and imports divided by GDP) has been declining during the last 15 years.  Removing trade barriers will enable exports and imports to increase, accelerating growth. The second priority should be to increase tax revenues from their historically low levels of 9 percent of GDP to 15 percent (Sri Lanka used to have tax ratios of 20 percent). This will permit public spending on health, education, social protection and public investment to crowd in private investment. The third priority would be the restructuring of state-owned enterprises, starting with SriLankan Airlines, which is a drain on the budget, and proceeding to the Ceylon Electricity Board and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation. There has been an appreciation of the rupee, which now stands at about Rs 298 to the US dollar. This is the first time in the past many years this has reached such a level. How do you explain this? Short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate depend on the expectations of market participants which, in turn, depend on policy announcements and global market conditions.  As such, an explanation of a particular appreciation of the rupee on a given day is likely to be speculative.  [Had the rupee depreciated, I could probably have given you an equally speculative explanation for that].  In the medium term, the exchange rate depends on fundamentals, such as interest rate policies, trade and fiscal policies, and the terms of trade. The new government has embarked on measures that would lower revenue like, for example, the proposed revision of VAT on medicine and education, subsidies for farmers, and a pay increase. How, in your view, would this impact on constraints placed by the IMF? While the proposed revision of VAT on medicine and education could lower VAT revenues, what matters is overall revenue.  The shortfall could be made up by increasing income tax rates on the richest people in the country, or by introducing a wealth tax. The government could also increase tax revenues by improving tax administration—the amount of statutory taxes that go uncollected is significant.  Finally, the real constraint is not revenues but the fiscal deficit (or surplus), which is what matters for debt sustainability.  So if the tax cuts were matched by equivalent cuts in expenditures (especially expenditures on the rich, such as fuel and electricity subsidies), then the deficit targets could continue to be met.