Counting the people
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Merrily playing his signature music, Aldoris, the choon- paan karaya, came down the lane in his tuk-tuk, warming the neighbourhood as they woke up on this Thursday morning.The trio had gathered at the gate expecting his arrival, and as he drove in, asked for ‘maalu-paans’. Doling out the hot-hot buns, Aldoris was asked whether he had a profitable week with his business. “Ow, prashnayak nae. Mudal tikak hoya ganna puluwan wuna (It was okay, I made some money),” he said.
“Mae aluth aanduwa hinda wenna athi. Nathnam haema dama eka eka ewa kiyanawa nae padu gena (This must be because of the new government, otherwise you eternally complain of losses),” said Kussi Amma Sera.
“Anik athing, adika wassa nisa godak palathwala gang wathura elavalu govinta loku paadu athi karala. Goyam wagath yatawela (On the other hand, heavy rains have flooded many areas affecting vegetable cultivators. Rice fields were also swamped),” noted Mabel Rasthiyadu.
“Eh kathawama thama apey gameyth (It was the same story in my village),” said Serapina.
Just as I walked into the kitchen where Kussi Amma Sera had left two ‘maalu-paans’ for me, the home phone rang. It was Arty, the intrepid entrepreneur.
“I say…. this census survey which has begun looks to be very interesting,” he said.
“Why? I asked. “Well….it provides an overview of the country’s population and housing stock and would be valuable information for city planners and economists,” he said.
“Yes, it provides a lot of information useful for planning purposes,” I said.
The nationwide population and housing census commenced on October 7 and would be conducted across the island. Some 50,000 officials are involved in the collection of data. The last census was held in 2012 and while it is held once every 10 years, the latest census was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. This is the 15th census undertaken since independence.
Since the last census in 2012, the population has increased by 1,441,625 in 2024 (2024: 21,801,064; 2012: 20,359,439) from 2012. Apart from the once-in-10-years census collection of data, the population figures are updated every year with an estimated figure.
Due to external migration, the population declined by 102,821 in 2024 as against the estimated 2023 population. In 2023, the natural increase was positive, as the number of births exceeded the number of deaths by 211,716, official data showed. It would be interesting to see the actual external migration levels in 2024 as thousands of young people have left the country in the aftermath of the economic crisis, pinning their hopes on jobs overseas. Long and winding queues outside the passport office were evidence of this outflow of young people, a loss of valuable human resources.
The census of a population provides a lot of data for economic planners and interestingly comes at a time when an entirely new regime, the National People’s Power (NPP), an offshoot of the once, rebellious Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), has won power over the traditional parties – SLFP and UNP – which had, until then, ruled the country since independence.
The next stage of the new government would be determined at parliamentary polls on November 14 – as to whether the ruling regime can secure a working majority or a two-third majority or for that matter a required number of seats to continue governing. In the event of a shortage of seats, it may have to decide whether it needs to join up with other parties. It requires a working majority to form a Cabinet and a new government.
In the meantime, the political campaigning by parties contesting the polls, including the NPP, has been lack-lustre with a few meetings and not many billboards or cut-outs. Normally at a parliamentary election, there is a scramble for the ‘manape (preference vote)’, with candidates often fighting within their own ranks to get elected under the preference voting system. This time, the usual sound and thunder of candidates seem to be missing. Has the opposition already given up the battle?
While the polls get closer and closer, a population census also helps planners in crafting the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the number of people living below the poverty line which helps to structure poverty alleviation programmes and prepare welfare schemes.
It would help assess the quantum of foreign remittances into the country, since the number of persons working overseas as migrant workers and those permanently resident abroad particularly in the West, the US and Canada, is counted.
The Census Office, analysing 2012 data, said that according to the demographic information revealed in the Census on Population and Housing, 48.4 per cent of the total population were males, while 51.6 per cent were females. In 2024, the office said the sex ratio of the total population was 0.974 (974 males per 1,000 females), which is lower than the global sex ratio. The global sex ratio in the world was approximately 1,016 males to 1,000 females as of 2023.
On housing, the 2012 Census on Population and Housing has reported the existence of 5,267,159 building units used as occupied units by the population.
The UN recommends that a population census should always be held in the years ending with a ‘10’ but for various reasons – in the Sri Lanka context it was the 30-year ethnic conflict and years later the economic crisis in 2022 – it has been difficult to adopt this practice of having a census every 10 years, in a year ending with ’10 or ‘20.
The census also helps to group the population according to ethnicity, married persons, ages, education levels, internal migration, economically active population and – in recent decades – the number of people overseas (as migrant workers or permanently resident).
It remains to be seen whether economic data, which the Central Bank releases on a regular basis at least once in three months, would be changed or altered based on the new findings in the population and housing census. However, it would take several months for the census data to be published.
As I walked into the kitchen for my second mug of tea on completing the column, Kussi Amma Sera was making a mug of tea for herself, asking, “Sir chandey danawada (Sir, will you be voting)?”
I replied: “Ow. Eka apey yuthukama (Yes, that’s our duty).”
She smiled in response, leaving me with a feeling of uncertainty whether she would and would not exercise her franchise.
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