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The character of our democracy and the structure and performance of the economy will be determined by the composition and character of the parliament that will be elected next Thursday.

Parliament

Will we elect a parliament that will ensure good governance? Will honest and capable members be elected? Will the President have a majority in parliament? Will there be a strong opposition too?

Answers

The answers to these questions will be of pivotal importance for the country’s future. It is said, “In a democracy, people get the government they deserve”.

Parliament

For the country’s good governance and economic future, the importance of the composition of the next parliament has been stressed as never before.

The party strengths in parliament and the knowledge capability, character, and integrity of MPs would be significant for the adoption and implementation of sound economic policies.

Break from the past

There could be a break from the past composition of parliament, but will the change be towards better governance and adoption of economic policies that would resolve the country’s economic and social problems to achieve economic development?

Three outcomes

There are three possible outcomes of this election. First, the JVP/NPP led by the President could get the highest number of parliamentary seats but without a majority. This would require them to form a government by obtaining the support of other parties. This option is fraught with instability and obstacles to pursuing economic policies, as evident whenever such coalitions formed the government, as had been in 1970-77.

Coalition governments are unable to implement their programmes owing to internal differences on policies. Often they do not last the full term.

Germany

There are exceptions to this. For instance, in Germany, when a coalition government is formed, the parties agree to a common programme of policies and adhere strictly to it. This is different from our political culture, where the party differences would result in internal conflicts, vitiate implementation of required policies and break up.

In such a hung parliament, a minority government that is dependent on support from sections of the opposition for its policies is an unstable one, and implementation of economic policies is difficult.

Two-thirds

A second possibility is that the NPP, which is riding on a wave of popularity, could get a two-thirds majority. This is a strong possibility, as recent elections have shown that the party that wins the presidency gets an overwhelming majority in parliament, as happened during the two Rajapaksa presidencies.

Autocratic

Such a two-thirds majority could lead to autocratic rule and huge economic blunders, as happened several times. It would be in the interests of good governance, democracy and sound economic policies for any party to not get such a majority. If the highly unlikely prospect of an opposition party obtaining a two-thirds majority occurs, it would be an ungovernable state of affairs.

Best option

The best option would be for the NPP to get a simple majority and implement its policies for better or worse. The government would be accountable to the people who could decide at the next elections.

New parliamentarians

The capability, character, and integrity of the new MPs remain to be seen. Mahatma Gandhi once said that education without character was a disaster. We are also reminded that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely (Lord Acton). The county’s political experience demonstrates this truism clearly.

Rich and beautiful

So let us live in the hope that our new representatives will take us to the promised rich and prosperous land. The nominations of the main parties lend hope of a more youthful and educated parliament.

Tired and retired

Many older politicians have at last decided to retire from active politics and lead a relaxed life or even make films. Some remain active to support their parties. Others may disrupt play from outside the boundary line.

Recapitulation

The foremost concern is whether the JVP/NPP would get a two-thirds majority; a simple majority or not get a majority in parliament.

One view is that the President should have a simple majority rather than a two-thirds majority in parliament. This they contend would ensure a stable government but avert a shift towards dictatorial or autocratic rule. The political experience amply demonstrates this. Regimes that had a two-thirds majority have flouted democratic norms and provoked violent protests. On the other hand, it is argued that a government with a steamroller majority could get the economy moving faster.

Another view is that the government should have a simple majority and that the opposition should be strong to keep the government on the right track.

Numbers

The number of MPs in the government and opposition matters. There are three possibilities.

First, the popularity wave the NPP enjoys could result in the party getting a two-thirds majority in parliament.

In fact, in several past elections, the party that won the presidential election got a two-thirds majority in parliament.

Second, given the fact that the NPP did not get even 50 percent of the vote at the presidential election and some disillusionment with it over the non-fulfilment of election promises, the NPP may get a slender majority or not get a majority in parliament.

Best option

The best option for the country is that of the NPP getting a small majority in parliament that enables it to implement its policies. The NPP should have a majority in parliament, but not a two-thirds majority.

Opposition

A strong opposition is crucially important for good democratic governance. A weak opposition could lead to an authoritarian government that makes arbitrary decisions that could ruin the economy, as experienced by the country in the past decades.

The opposition should be strong not only in numbers but also in capacity and a sense of responsibility.

This parliamentary election would be of pivotal importance for the country’s polity and economy.

Conclusion

The composition of the new parliament would be of significance to the people and the economy. The best option is for the President to get a simple majority. A two-thirds majority could lead to autocratic rule, the erosion of democratic rights, and good governance as experienced before.

Disastrous economic policies, such as the ban on chemical fertilisers and weedicides, have been implemented by those with over two-thirds in parliament. Investments in white elephants and costly infrastructure and corruption were also by those with a two-thirds majority in parliament. We must hope for a stable government that forges national unity and pragmatic economic policies.

Postscript: Even the German coalition of three parties has collapsed.