Evidence-Based Insights: How Historical Election Data Shapes Future Predictions
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We are already done with another general election.This is for the 17th parliament for the country and the first General election for parliament election was conducted between 23.08.1947 and 20.09.1947 (19 days). Now, in 2024, this marks 77 years since the first parliamentary general election. At the time of writing this article, the National People’s Power party, led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake, is positioned for a sweeping victory in the Sri Lankan parliamentary election.
Numbers and predictions
In most countries, numbers are crucial for making predictions. We frequently see a range of analyses, figures, and statistics being taken into account.If it is a case of elections you have different data sets and analyses for prediction Sometimes You can make certain predictions from your own experience. Anyway, if you can have the help of numbers and evidence then you can have a scientific approach which is one of the requirements to have data-rich analysis.Here I have taken one example of an analysis of the last 35 years of general elections conducted for, years 1989,1994,2000,2001,2004,2015 and 2020. This is a straightforward study that does not account for the influence of different political parties or the broader national context. It focuses solely on illustrating the value of numbers and prediction, considering only parameters like the winning party and the parties expected to place second, third, and fourth.. Then all other parties won seats categorized as “others”.It is interesting to see the voting pattern for the last 35 years to have a prediction with some interesting findings.
*14 seats among 5 parties **13 seats among 12 parties
The voting patterns over the last 35 years reveal some fascinating numbers and trends, as shown in the table.By looking at the last 35 years in 1989,2010 and 2020 general elections we can see the winning party was able to obtain more than 112 with the majority.That can be seen out of eight general elections. Only in 1994 and 2015, the second winning party obtained more than 90 seats out of 225. But in the year 2020 (the last General election) we can see the second winning party gained only 54 seats.And also in the same election, we witnessed 13 seats being divided among 12 parties which was quite unusual by looking at the pattern in the last 35 years.
Conclusion
Is important for the country to have more analysis with evidence not only for elections but for any other main activities. The past data,numbers,the rationale, and some key variables always help us for key decision-making.In this regard, we cannot underestimate the value of different analytics as well. In the current world in different subject streams, you can see certain trends. In Marketing, we discuss marketing analytics even with data visualisation This approach is common across various fields and holds particular importance for journalists as well. We referred to this as Evidence-based journalism which is one of the essential in reporting including election coverage, as it provides factual, verified information that aids voters in making informed decisions. Also it is important for you to have whatever the reports in data with reliable sources Furthermore we could not ignore the role of social media in this Some literature on social media journalism indicates that while social media significantly expands the reach of journalistic content, it also heightens the risk of audience polarisation. In any case, it’s essential for reports, news, and outcomes to be backed by solid evidence. Looking at the bigger picture, Sri Lanka requires a paradigm shift in its economy across a range of indicators.People in the country are looking forward to a brighter future, including a more respected passport. Most importantly, there is a strong desire for an island free of corruption and supported by an efficient government service.
Professor Nalin Abeysekera
(The writer is a Professor in Management Studies Open University of Sri Lanka and You can reach Professor Abeysekera on nabey@ou.ac.lk )
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