Editorial

With the completion today of the traditional 100-day ‘honeymoon period’ allowing a new president and his Government to enjoy the fruits of their electoral victory and providing a little break from harsh criticism enabling them to ease into office, it seems the honeymoon is finished before it had properly started.

Government members themselves urged the country that gave them a massive majority to wait patiently for the delivery of the ‘baby’. But they failed to realise a political reality—that the higher the expectations of the multitude who voted them into high office, the higher the disappointment when there is no delivery in sight. Their predecessors similarly rode on the shoulders of the masses shouting “Jayawewa” only to be at the receiving end of their wrath not much later.

The President himself is acutely aware that these ‘honeymoon periods’ can be short-lived. He does not want that ignominy for him or his fledgling Government. It has been a mixed bag thus far.

The Good: Despite the existential angst that the new administration would abandon the IMF programme begun by its immediate predecessor in office, it maintained prudent policy decisions to continue with the programme, as well as took persistent action to normalise the relationship with the international financial community through the recent completion of a commercial debt restructuring that has seen the inglorious tag of a ‘bankrupt’ nation removed.

The Bad: the market bedevilled by rice, coconut and salt shortages compounded by adverse climate and floods.

The Farcical: the parliamentary skirmish over the educational qualifications of the ex-Speaker and allegedly others.

It is well recognised that if the economic front is progressing well—as seen in climbing growth rates, increasing foreign currency reserves, rating upgrades, and strengthening exchange rates—it is the result of policies, interventions, and legislative foundations put in place by the previous administration, including through the timely recruitment of international consultants Lazards and Clifford Chance and the input of other foreign experts. The Treasury Secretary has warned that it is crucial Sri Lanka adheres to fundamental economic principles and steers clear of policy errors relying on ideological leanings and dogmatic beliefs.

The collapse of an economy happens swiftly, while recovery is painful, stressful and difficult, he warns.

This week, tributes flowed in from all over the world on the death of former Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the architect of modern India’s economic revival and relative prosperity. His expert hand, first as finance minister under Premier Narasimha Rao, is credited with bringing the subcontinent out of the restrictive Nehruvian socialist policies of yesteryear, something done earlier by the J.R. Jayewardene government post-1977 in Sri Lanka. India catapulted into a new era of high growth, poverty reduction, and expansion of middle-class prosperity, laying its digital foundations—in fact, all the ingredients of modern, sustainable and inclusive growth—global buzzwords today. However, such reformists and modernists don’t always win elections. His Congress Party suffered a devastating defeat in the 2014 elections.

The trick was that Congress’ successor, the ruling BJP, continued with this economic path. There is continuity. This should provide a prism of hope through which to review the kaleidoscope of challenges facing Sri Lanka and the new NPP Government.

If the Government’s 100-day report card is one of moderate achievements and disappointments, it is clearly finding it different from being in the opposition. In a Parliament full of novices, there are indications that administrative and policy inexperience is standing in the way of resolving national challenges.

Some of the novices holding public office for the first time are finding the adjustments, the conversion from opposition critic to responsible government minister, difficult to handle. Power can not only corrupt, but power can also create an arrogant self-perception that one is infallible. For example, unable to stomach the media exposure of an embarrassing faux pas, there is a tendency to see a conspiracy behind every bush. Trying to save face is one thing. The danger is if they actually believe in their own conspiracy theories.

Reports that the ruling party ‘Commissars’ have ordered a clamp on their ministers and parliamentarians speaking to the media without the prior approval of the High Command have been swirling around. Party supporters felt this was a good move. They argue that, unlike in earlier times when one minister contradicted another and the media made a play of such divisions to portray the Government as divided, it is wise to have a controlled narrative of state policy. The Cabinet spokesman denied there was such a decision to ‘zip up’ the ministers. The party, given its Marxist background, may be regimented to march to a single drum, but the country is not.

Furthermore, a controlled narrative of state policy must derive first and foremost from clear and informed internal policy-making discussions and structures in place on matters of state. When sharply divergent policy positions are announced on critical issues by key ministers, the fault is in the absence of such processes. Recently, for example, a seemingly unprepared cabinet spokesman said that decisions on lifting the moratorium on research vessels will be taken on a ‘case by case’ basis, while the Foreign Ministry announced that an SOP (Standard Operational Procedure) will be developed by a committee that will set policy—when an SOP already exists.

Meanwhile, a daunting challenge lies ahead for the country on the economy. Its international credit rating of CCC+ is still a long way off from the ‘Stable Trend’ of AA. While it is riding on the wave of positive outcomes of past measures, long-term success and debt servicing depend on revenue-generated growth, inward investment, and increased exports. There is no blueprint from the past administration for the implementation of this future trajectory.

The Government has indicated its plans for kick-starting the economic growth mindful of a safety net for the vulnerable as the centre piece of its budget next March. On other fronts, commitments have been made domestically and internationally on delivering justice, accountability, rule of law and reconciliation, including dealing with past corruption.

The Supreme Court has ordered an early local government election, and the Government has also promised provincial council elections. On the broader external front, the country needs to build the confidence of the international community and the action-oriented commitments which need follow-up that have been made at the conclusion of the State visit to India.

Advancing on all this requires an immediate, well-planned, all-of-government effort under experienced guidance. Unlike the challenges that beset the past administration from various ‘coalition’ factions, the electorate has given the incumbents the advantage to march alone.

How popular the Government is after the first 100 days in office is difficult to say. Many would still think it is clearly too early to pass judgement. Unlike in other democracies, Sri Lankan opinion polls are usually conducted at the time of elections and not post-election. The barometer might then be the upcoming local government elections promised before April—the first real popular test of the Dissanayake presidency in the New Year.