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NPP Govt. risks losing public trust if promises and expectations are not met
View(s):Is it possible for a government that won an election with overwhelming popularity—especially one that captivated the younger generation—to become so unpopular that it loses power just two years after securing a landslide victory?
The answer is yes, and there are political lessons to be learned in recent history. Despite promising wealth redistribution, the nationalisation of key industries, and a staunch opposition to austerity, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party, which seemed unstoppable at first, saw its popularity crash and burn just two years later in a humiliating defeat in UK general elections of 2017 and 2019.
Similarly, Jimmy Carter, who passed away last week, was swept into office in 1976 with immense public support, buoyed by widespread disillusionment with Richard Nixon’s Watergate scandal. The American public had high hopes for his presidency, expecting a new era of honesty and reform. But within less than a year, Carter’s popularity had plummeted, and he became one of the most unpopular presidents in modern history—so much so that he was never re-elected.
A careful study of political history reveals many such cautionary tales—governments that entered office riding a wave of enthusiasm and promise, only to crash against the rocks of unmet expectations, economic crises, or political missteps. The allure of success can be fleeting, and in the unpredictable world of politics, even the brightest beginnings can quickly turn into the darkest ends.
The Sri Lankan voter, long weary from shattered hopes, had endured 30 years of dashed expectations, watching their faith shift endlessly from one political camp to another. In the wake of this frustration, disillusionment, and anger—emotions that ultimately toppled the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government just two years after it swept into power with a resounding victory—the newly formed National People’s Power (NPP), with the JVP as its backbone, emerged as the logical choice for a disenchanted electorate.
The JVP, however, will face several challenges that will determine how long the leftist party, which has never held government, can extend its political tenure.
The yearning for good governance
The yearning for good governance is one of these challenges. The very term “good governance” had fallen out of favour after the government that came to power in 2015 used it as a central campaign slogan, only to fail miserably in delivering on its promise. Since 1994, the desire for genuine, clean, and efficient governance has remained unmet. The newly formed NPP must identify capable individuals and assemble an effective team to deliver the kind of governance the people expect.
The unbearable financial strain on the average citizen
It was the common man who bore the entire burden of Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy in 2022, faced with rising taxes, soaring commodity prices, and stagnant or reduced incomes. This hardship was further compounded by the stark injustice of seeing those responsible for the crisis walk free, while those who could afford to pay more in taxes were conveniently overlooked. As if these burdens weren’t enough, the IMF’s recommended path to recovery calls for a government income target of Rs. 4,500 billion by 2025, a goal that will impose an additional Rs. 200,000 in taxes on the already struggling taxpayer.
The general public expects commodity prices to be lowered, tariffs for electricity and fuel prices to be brought down, incomes to be improved, and salaries raised.
Zero corruption and zero wastage
Sri Lankan voters have long recognised that the country’s significant inefficiency and widespread corruption are key factors hindering progress toward prosperity. These issues are also identified as primary causes of social injustice and the hardships faced by the average citizen. From 1994 to 2015, reducing corruption and waste was a central campaign promise in elections. In 2024, this issue was no different, and in fact, it became the most prominent campaign pledge made by the National People’s Power (NPP).
Juggling international relations and financial status
Maintaining robust international relations and effectively navigating the ongoing financial crisis are critical tasks for the newly elected government. In particular, it is of paramount importance for the administration to preserve and strengthen bilateral ties with key global players such as India, the United States, and China. These relationships will play a crucial role in Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and diplomatic standing.
As outlined in the National People’s Power (NPP) manifesto, the government’s commitment to amending the Debt Sustainability Assessment is a significant step toward addressing the nation’s fiscal challenges. Coupled with the NPP’s innovative approach to restructuring State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), this pledge has sparked considerable anticipation among voters who are eager to see tangible reform.
Moreover, with the scale of expectations growing, the government is also tasked with attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to stimulate growth and rejuvenate the country’s financial status.
The crucial role of JVP cohesion: A defining factor for the success of the NPP Government
The challenges faced by the NPP government are manifold, but one key factor that will determine the success or failure of its political strategy lies in the conduct and behaviour of the members of parliament from the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). The role that these parliamentarians play in the legislative and political landscape is crucial to the effective execution of the NPP’s vision for the country.
Patali Champika Ranawaka - Guest Column
A particularly stark reminder of the importance of political cohesion within the JVP came from the experience of 2004, when the party lost a significant number of its parliamentarians—29 out of the 39 members (approximately 75%) who had been elected to office. This exodus of elected representatives to other parties was not just a political setback but a bruising blow to the JVP, severely impacting its credibility and influence within the political sphere. It is a scenario that the party, and indeed the NPP as a whole, dreads repeating.
Such a loss undermines the stability and unity that is necessary for enacting the bold reforms and strategies laid out by the NPP. The capacity of the JVP members to remain disciplined, unified, and committed to the party’s objectives will be integral to the success of the current government. Without strong internal cohesion, the risk of fragmentation looms large, and it could severely impede the execution of crucial policies and reforms, leading to a weakened government unable to deliver on the promises made to the people.
Therefore, the future of the NPP’s political agenda rests significantly on the collective behaviour, loyalty, and cooperation of the JVP members in parliament. Their actions will either propel the government toward success or contribute to a repeat of past mistakes, with lasting consequences for both the party and the nation as a whole.
The “Yahapalana” government’s 100-day programme: A bold step towards economic relief, healthcare reform, and democratic governance
The “Yahapalana” government, in its early days, set a powerful precedent with its 100-day programme, which delivered tangible and meaningful benefits to the people of Sri Lanka. The programme was marked by a series of reforms aimed at alleviating the burdens of the average citizen and fostering a sense of hope and progress in the nation.
Among the most significant achievements was the reduction of electricity tariffs, which brought immediate relief to households and businesses grappling with rising costs. This move was a critical step toward easing the financial strain on families and improving the overall cost of living. Similarly, the reduction of fuel prices provided much-needed relief to the public, especially in a country where fuel costs heavily impact transportation, agriculture, and daily life. These measures were not merely economic decisions but symbolic of the government’s commitment to prioritising the welfare of the people.
In addition to these immediate economic gains, the government introduced the National Medicinal Policy, which aimed to reform and regulate the pharmaceutical sector. This policy sought to improve access to affordable and quality medicines for the population, ensuring that healthcare became more equitable and efficient. By addressing the public’s need for accessible healthcare, the government made a significant investment in the nation’s well-being, particularly for the underprivileged.
Another landmark achievement was the amendment to the Constitution regarding the number of presidential terms. This reform aimed to limit the concentration of power in the hands of a single individual, promoting democratic principles and ensuring that political power remained in the hands of the people. It was a bold and crucial step in the direction of good governance and political accountability, seeking to prevent the abuse of power that had marred Sri Lanka’s political landscape in the past.
Together, these reforms reflected the government’s resolve to improve the lives of ordinary Sri Lankans and to steer the nation towards a more transparent, accountable, and sustainable future. The “Yahapalana” government’s 100-day programme, with its tangible outcomes, marked a significant moment in Sri Lanka’s political and economic history, and these achievements continue to serve as a reminder of what can be accomplished through focused leadership and a commitment to public welfare.
The unyielding pursuit of justice: Exposing corruption and holding perpetrators of grave crimes accountable
A central pledge made by the NPP government was to hold accountable those responsible for the widespread fraud, extortion, and money laundering that have plagued Sri Lanka’s political and economic landscape. The public’s demand for justice is particularly acute in the case of unresolved major crimes, including the brutal murder of ruggerite Thajudeen, the tragic Easter Sunday massacre, and numerous other grave injustices. These cases, which have remained shrouded in mystery and impunity for far too long, call for a dedicated and effective response from law enforcement and the judicial system.
However, it is somewhat ironic and deeply concerning that, at a time when the country is demanding justice for such serious and high-profile crimes, the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) is currently overwhelmed with investigating personal matters related to various members of parliament from the NPP. These investigations, many of which have been inflated and sensationalised far beyond their national importance, have distracted valuable resources and attention from the pressing need to resolve the grave crimes that have left deep scars on the nation. Herein the NPP government runs the risk of losing public acceptance in bringing culprits to justice and finding hidden stolen money from foreign countries.
The discrepancy between campaign promises and IMF-endorsed reforms: Eroding public trust and confidence
Despite the bold promises made during the election campaign, the NPP government has, perhaps unexpectedly, embraced the IMF proposal in its entirety, committing to the austerity measures and economic reforms outlined by the international financial institution. While these actions have brought a degree of stability to the country’s economy and financial markets, they stand in stark contrast to the pledges made to the electorate during the campaign. The contradiction between the NPP’s campaign rhetoric and the reality of its policy execution is bound to raise concerns among the public and has become a significant point of contention.
The election campaign saw the NPP presenting itself as an alternative to traditional economic policies, vowing to address the deep-rooted issues of corruption, inequality, and the mismanagement of state resources. The party’s promise to prioritise the welfare of ordinary Sri Lankans, coupled with its commitment to local solutions over foreign-imposed policies, resonated deeply with voters. However, the decision to fully endorse the IMF’s economic prescription that the Ranil Wickramasinghe government agreed upon, which often includes controversial measures such as fiscal tightening, tax hikes, and public sector cuts, has created a palpable sense of disillusionment among those who had hoped for a different approach.
While the stabilisation of the economy and markets is undeniably a positive outcome, the public is now confronted with the reality that some of the very measures they were promised would be avoided or reformed are now being implemented in full. This inconsistency between campaign promises and policy actions will lead to a decline in public trust and confidence in the NPP leadership.
Strategy of the NPP government
It seems that the strategy of the NPP government is to maintain harmony with India, China, the United States, and other global powers, adopting a more complaisant attitude until the government secures a foothold. The core Bolshevik faction within the JVP has likely explained to its cadre that, similar to V.I. Lenin’s approach in 1917, when he observed the treaty between Germany and Russia, the reforms may not align with traditional Bolshevik principles. However, those non-accustomed reforms may have to be swallowed to establish the government and incorporate approximately 6 million voters who were not traditional JVP voters into the party structure. The NPP leadership would be strategising to make a “state capture” through acquiring a strong electoral win in the upcoming local government and provincial council elections. The process may already be underway, judging by the appointment of JVP cadres to various ministries and departments as oversight committees.
The government’s strategy to embrace the IMF’s prescribed reforms and move forward with its implementation will likely ensure macroeconomic stability for the next five years. However, the rising costs of power and energy, coupled with the imposition of heavy taxes, pose significant challenges that will impede any meaningful growth or development within the economy.
At present, what the opposition is lacking is a combination of pragmatic leadership and the experience necessary to execute comprehensive strategies that can provide much-needed relief across vital sectors such as food, education, healthcare, the economy, and social services. A cohesive and experienced leadership vision will enhance the opposition’s ability to form a strong, united coalition capable of offering a compelling alternative to the current administration. With this strategic unity, the opposition will be able to effectively challenge the government’s policies or present a clear path forward for the nation’s recovery and prosperity.
(Patali Champika Ranawaka was a Minister of Power and Energy )
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