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As much as the economy of the country has declined in recent years so has the polity. The political landscape of Sri Lanka has undergone negative changes in recent years with the major political parties being virtually swept away from their earlier position of dominance.

The country’s political scene, which was once dominated by two major parties—the United National Party (UNP) and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) has now been completely transformed with both traditional powerhouses losing their grip on the electorate. 

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) too has now exhausted its short- lived dominance and has suffered the same fate as the UNP and SLFP. Only the National Peoples Power (NPP) has grown in popularity as evidenced by its sweeping victories at the 2024 elections.

Of the two major parties, the UNP has seen a dramatic decline in its popularity. Its influence has steadily waned due to a series of failures, missteps, and internal divisions. Once a party that commanded significant support across the country, it has now become virtually non-existent in terms of electoral power.

The nadir of its decline was at the 2019 elections when it was routed electorally and could only muster enough votes to obtain one national list seat.

The SLFP, with its middle of the road policies was viewed at one time as the alternative to the UNPs capitalist policies too has similarly seen its power erode. With the formation of the breakaway Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna , the SLFP suffered a death blow and has never recovered since then.

It has fractured into numerous factions in recent years. The SLFP now struggles, with various splinter groups fighting for control but with no clear policies. The fragmentation of the SLFP has rendered it weak and unable to mount a serious challenge to the rising influence of new political formations.

The SLPP was able to gain significant traction despite the 2015 defeat of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, and eventually succeeded in securing power in 2019 with the election of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as president. However, the SLPP’s brief period of dominance was marred by accusations of misgovernance, corruption, and mismanagement, culminating in widespread public unrest and protests. Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s tenure was particularly turbulent, as the country faced numerous crises, including an economic collapse that left the population grappling with high inflation, food shortages, and widespread poverty. The SLPP’s role in causing this crisis led to a dramatic loss of public support, and the party was routed in the most recent elections. Today, the SLPP is a shadow of its former self, struggling to regain its political footing.

The turmoil faced by the UNP, SLFP, and SLPP has enabled the the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) to emerge as a significant political force. Formed as a breakaway faction of the UNP, the SJB was designed to provide an alternative to the SLPP.

However in the most recent elections the SJB performed poorly, failing to secure the kind of mandate that its founders had hoped for. Despite its disappointing performance, the SJB still remains the primary alternative to the NPP. The SJB despite having in its ranks several politicians who have maintained a reputation for being untouched by corruption could not generate sufficient confidence in the people at Election time.

The most unfortunate aspect of Sri Lanka’s current political landscape is the decline of the left-wing parties, particularly the Lanka Sama Samaja Party (LSSP) and the Communist Party (CP). These two parties were once crucial players in shaping policy debates and enriching the intellectual discourse around governance. The LSSP, founded in 1935, and the CP, founded in 1942, both played important roles in the post-independence period, shaping the political discourse in the country.

This decline is due, in part, to the increasing absence of second-tier leaders in the two parties who could have influenced the political agenda towards a better future for the country.

With the upcoming Local Government elections in sight the UNP and SJB have reportedly begun talks aimed at forming an alliance of right-wing parties. This potential alliance, if it materialises, will face significant challenges. Both parties have a history of antagonism, with the UNP and SJB having traded accusations and being positioned on opposite sides of the political spectrum in recent years. Reconciling their differences, particularly those surrounding the UNP’s previous association with the SLPP, will be a difficult task. For the UNP, any attempt to align itself with the SJB will bring along with it the baggage of its past associations with the SLPP, a relationship that remains deeply unpopular among voters.

The future of Sri Lanka’s political trajectory will undoubtedly influence the progress or otherwise of the country and its struggle to lift itself out of the economic downturn it faced in the recent past. It is not easy to predict what the future holds taking into consideration the recent happenings. (javidyusuf@gmail.com)