Editorial

China spared no efforts to roll out the red carpet for President A.K. Dissanayake’s state visit this week.

Notwithstanding all the optics of the overwhelming hospitality, little of the substance of the official talks has come out into the public domain. There is, for instance, still no clarity regarding all the MoUs that were signed or the details of the additional meetings that were held.

The Joint Statement (JS) envelops Sri Lanka within the multiple folds of China’s global outlook, ranging across its strategic, development, economic, and cultural dimensions. In parallel, both sides have pledged to jointly build a China-Sri Lanka community within a shared future to bring greater benefits to the two countries and peoples’.

As in the past, the ‘one China principle’ is featured as a ‘core issue’ in the JS in line with Sri Lanka’s longstanding position. This has been in relation to China disowning Taiwan’s independence. This year, however, for the first time, Sri Lanka has also pledged to support China on issues related to Xizang—which is in relation to Tibet (please see our Page One story)—and Xinjiang. Sri Lanka has long been noncommittal on the issue of Tibet, which was annexed by China in 1951 and whose Buddhist population largely owes its allegiance to the ousted Dalai Lama.

By its commitment to China’s all-encompassing Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI) and its multilateral projections, Sri Lanka has committed to sign a BRI cooperation plan for a further upgrade, details of which are unknown. The country has put itself very much in China’s orbit of the Global South, where it is spearheading a challenge to the Western-dominated world order. Sri Lanka needs China’s solid support in international forums, especially where it is getting continuously harassed—and crucified—by Western nations, especially at the UNHRC in Geneva. Elsewhere, China has confirmed support for Sri Lanka to join BRICS, which support it did not receive from India during the President’s recent state visit to New Delhi.

On the all-important Indian Ocean-related issues—the impasse over port calls and research visits by Chinese vessels to Sri Lankan waters—one of the most challenging issues faced by the previous Wickremesinghe Government with India and the United States in the fray at the time objecting, the JS states: The two sides agreed to sign an MoU on “Ocean Cooperation toward a Blue Partnership“. At this stage, one can only assume the details were likely discussed at a separate bilateral meeting, but how these modalities for cooperation with China on ocean matters will synchronise with the President’s assurances to India only last month not to do anything inimical to its security and regional stability will be something to be watched. The signing for a Chinese oil refinery next to the Hambantota Port and China’s pledge to develop an economic zone in the vicinity guarantees Chinese ships calling over regularly.

Extensive Chinese presence in the domestic sphere, intensifying political contact, training, and capacity building; research; scientific and technical exchanges; professional and vocational training; sister cities; and digitalisation of education, health, agriculture, tourism, judiciary, law enforcement, security, culture, and media; and Buddhist activities are all in the package together with an endorsement to expedite an FTA (Free Trade Agreement).

Overall, given their extensive steps in infrastructure connectivity and economic cooperation as well as strategic and security dimensions, the two Joint Statements with India and China are similar in content and intention. Both aspirants for global power status and leadership roles in the Global South are wooing Sri Lanka through a strategic lens: India through its ‘Neighbourhood First and SAGAR’ framework and China through the BRI.

It seems that Sri Lanka has agreed to both jealous suitors, rendering its future balance of relations an extremely fraught tightrope walk.

 Trump’s term two tremors

 

The world awaits the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the world’s most powerful nation. Already, heralding his arrival back to the White House with bells and whistles and bombastic rhetoric of his credo, MAGA (Make America Great Again), he takes office with a somewhat unconventional worldview, which his supporters believe will fix a lot of the world’s festering problems.

Ever since he knocked out incumbent President Joe Biden in the verbal pugilistic debate and overran Kamala Harris at the November presidential election, the president-elect’s rants have unnerved friend and foe alike. The Biden-Harris presidency has been widely described as a US foreign policy disaster. They gave a deadrope to the Ukrainians to fight Russia, they funded the genocide taking place in Occupied Palestine, and were repeatedly defeated at the UN by the rest of the world that has now ganged up to challenge US domination of the world—the seeds of a fresh non-aligned movement in the making.

Mr. Trump will take his oath tomorrow as the 47th president of the USA, with America’s neighbours and allies in Europe and the rest of the world alarmed at his wish list. This ranges from buying or taking over Greenland, Canada, and the Panama Canal to imposing tariffs—including a 100 percent tariff on BRICS members (and possibly its partners like Sri Lanka) if they dare pursue an alternate currency to the US dollar through non-dollar payment schemes and digital currencies.

Any such tariff policy will not only raise prices domestically and fuel inflation but also lead to higher interest rates, which in turn raise borrowing costs globally, especially for countries like Sri Lanka with significant foreign debt, driving investors from emerging markets (like Sri Lanka). The Trump policy is clear: “Align with us or be left out”.

During his previous avatar as the 45th President, America walked out of UNESCO and the UNHRC, saying they were ‘politicised’ and anti-Israel. He threatened to walk out of the WHO during the COVID-19 pandemic. He weaponised the US dollar by stopping funding these UN agencies because they didn’t toe the US line.

All this chest-thumping is even before taking his seat in the Oval Office. The world is going to see an interesting period with an anti-China, anti-Iran, anti-UN, anti-immigration, somewhat eccentric 78-year-old pro-corporate climate denier running America (with its consent)—and the world (without its consent).

Unlike many other countries, including China, that are sending high-profile dignitaries for tomorrow’s swearing-in, Sri Lanka will be represented by its ambassador to Washington.