AI vision of Sri Lanka by 2048
View(s):Our children who are born this year will be about 23-year old youths by then. Today’s youth will have grown to be adults in their 50s and 60s. Today’s adults will be spending their elderly life of age 70s and 80s. But will they all be living in a “developed” Sri Lanka with peace in mind, at least by that time?
Question to AI
In addition to our own answers based on reasonable assessments, we now have another brainy neighbour nearby who could give an intelligent answer to this question: That is Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our digital devices such as computers and smart phones.
Dr. Chandranath Amarasekara, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka had, in fact, enquired about it from the Artificial Intelligent (AI) app, Copilot: “What would be the future of
Sri Lanka by 2048?” Dr. Amarasekara revealed the AI’s answer at his speech on “Sri Lanka’s Growth Odyssey” at the recent Advocata Symposium at the BMICH.
AI-vision of Colombo in 2048.
Since it is timely to reflect on Sri Lanka’s future, as we prepare for celebrating the country’s Independence from Britain gained in 1948, I thought of focusing on some of the salient features extracted from Dr. Amarasekara’s speech. I have also included the AI answer along with an imaginary picture of Colombo city in 2048 as generated by AI.
In its growth odyssey, Sri Lanka has never been able to sustain a higher rate of growth over a longer period of time – notice the two terms as “higher rate of growth” and “over a longer period of time”. Both are necessary conditions, while one without the other makes no sense.
Graduation to high-income
Sri Lanka has so far not qualified under these two conditions. It is because the country has failed to adopt a “continuous and comprehensive reform agenda”. Even the reforms initiated in 1977 were half-done, while they got reversed during the past 25 years.
According to IMF projections, Sri Lanka will maintain little more than 3 per cent rate of GDP growth in the coming years, although Sri Lanka’s current performances show a more conservative growth scenario. If Sri Lanka aspires to become rich faster and enter the “high-income” category, it should aim at achieving around 7-8 per cent annual rate of growth, which is not impossible.
There are many high-performing countries in Asia which have maintained a higher growth performance of around 7-8 per cent annual rate of growth. The question is that how do we achieve a high growth momentum as such and how do we sustain it for 20-25 years or even longer?
For many of the countries in the world, graduation from middle-income category to high-income category seem to have become more difficult than the graduation from low-income category to middle-income category. While they are not prepared for that graduation with necessary conditions, the current global issues such as rising debt and growing ageing populations have also hindered the progress.
Reforms: the key word
The Asian countries that have maintained a highest growth momentum include China during the 1980s-2010s, India during 2010s-2020s, South Korea during 1960s-1980s, and Singapore 1960s-1990s. The high-performing countries in the past as well as at present show a list of common characteristics.
They have all adopted an export-oriented growth strategy which resulted in higher export performance and rapid export diversification. A country cannot enter the global market unless they adopt the state-of-the-art technological standards in industrialisation and service deliveries. These countries have also prioritised imitating and assimilating global technologies.
What is important here is the policy and regulatory environment that these countries have established enabling the transformation of their economies to globally integrated competitive ones. Openness to international trade and investment as well as to the development of a skilled-labour force is one of the major keys that has enabled the transition of these countries to become globally competitive.
While maintaining favourable immigration policies, the governments have played a major role in preparing their own labour force to suit economic transformation. In this respect, the governments have invested in building an educated and skilled labour force within their own countries which can perform competitively with foreign labour.
Strong institutions
The policy reforms work when there are strong institutions. This is another key area that the high-performing countries have focused on in establishing strong institutions which work independent of the political interferences. These institutions do not require an “upper hand” to direct them on what to do and what not to do. This is fundamental to build investor confidence and to reduce corruption vulnerability.
The evidence suggests that corruption vulnerabilities are higher at lower-income stages than at higher-income stages of a country. This means that the economic repression due to corruption is more in poor countries than in rich countries, indicating the need for strong institutions at early stages of economic growth.
Evidence from around the world suggests that fast-growing countries are “more open to global markets than others”. Therefore, the strong correlation between openness and higher growth performance is an established economic phenomenon.
With stalled reforms
If we are unable to execute our reform agenda right at this point, you may be able to imagine how Sri Lanka would look like in 2048. With a stalled reform agenda, this is how AI has imagined the future economy of Sri Lanka:
“The skyline of Colombo would remain largely unchanged, with outdated infrastructure struggling to keep up with the demands of a growing population. Traffic congestion could be a daily challenge, with pollution levels rising due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels.
“In rural areas, traditional farming methods would persist, but without the benefits of modern technology, leading to lower productivity and food insecurity. Coastal regions face severe erosion and flooding due to climate change, with little investment in protective measures.
“Public services like healthcare and education are under-funded and over-stretched, making it difficult for people to access quality care and learning opportunities. The rich cultural heritage of
Sri Lanka is at risk, with historic sites deteriorating due to lack of preservation efforts.
A vibrant future
It is only with reforms that Sri Lanka can avoid its negative outlook of the country’s future economy. This is how AI has projected its imagination of a vibrant and futuristic Sri Lanka in 2048:
“The skyline of Colombo is dotted with eco-friendly skyscrapers, powered by renewable energy sources like solar and wind. The streets are bustling with electric vehicles and autonomous public transport systems, ensuring a clean and efficient urban environment.
“The countryside is lush and green, with advanced agricultural technologies ensuring sustainable farming practices. Coastal areas are protected by innovative sea defenses, preserving the natural beauty and biodiversity of the island.
“Cultural heritage sites are meticulously preserved, blending seamlessly with modern infrastructure. The people of
Sri Lanka enjoy a high quality of life, with access to cutting-edge healthcare, education, and technology, all while maintaining their rich cultural traditions.”
Our choices
The alternative visions of AI about a future Sri Lanka would definitely remind us of our past as well as our future. Where we are today when we celebrate our 77-year Independence, is due to the choices that we made in the past forgoing the necessary reforms and adopting a dangerous path.
The same is true for the future too when we have to celebrate our 100-year Independence Day in 2048. The choices that we made would determine where we would be by then.
The AI vision highlights the importance of a broad-based reform programme to ensure a brighter future for Sri Lanka. The hard-earned stability from an economic crisis must be maintained and, certainly strengthened without compromising it for short-term gains. Growth must be accelerated with necessary reforms aimed at building a globally-integrated competitive economy.
(The writer is Emeritus Professor at the University of Colombo and Executive Director of the Centre for Poverty Analysis (CEPA) and can be reached at sirimal@econ.cmb.ac.lk and follow on Twitter @SirimalAshoka).
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