Columns

Those who have read about the American ‘Wild West’ would recall that much of the violence that spread across the land then was over land and gambling.

John Henry, better known as “Doc” Holliday, was not a fictional figure but a true Old West gambler and gunfighter and a great ally of lawman Wyatt Earp.

What brings to mind the tales of the times for those who were not alive to see or hear of them was their recreation by cinema in later years.

But unlike in old times, today millions of Americans are gambling not only with their future but also with the future stability of the world as though they have not made a mess of it over the years.

Late last year, they got together in a streak of mental instability and decided to play their Joker instead of the intended trump.

But the joke was that their trump had turned out earlier to be a joker, which all those wise men and women who tell the rest of us how to manage the world had little realised they had already polluted the place.

Take the case of climate change, which the Trump country had put its hand into the pot and stirred the climate enough, which some had already called the Military-Industrial Complex, which became complex only after it had made the habitat too complex to live in.

So now what will the newly elected Trump do? Simple. He plays trump after trump, withdrawing from the Paris Conference, then says he’ll do so in four years or whatever.

Then came Trump for the second round, which would not have happened had the great American people, who Trump wants to gather round to make America great again, carried him shoulder high on the ballot box and dumped him anywhere but the White House.

But the difference is this. This time round they gave him a significant share of the American votes and let him capture not only the executive but the Congress as well on the way, his Republican Party grabbing both the House and the Senate when the 119th Congress goes into session.

As somebody said recently, past performance is not an indication of what he will do now that he has got his hands on the power structure.

The problem with Trump is that he is unpredictable. What he says today is not what he will do tomorrow, which throws uncertainty into world affairs. And this is hardly the time when nations can plan their future on the haphazard and wayward conduct of countries that exude military power and economic strength.

We are already seeing the signs of Trump’s inconsistencies beginning to manifest themselves between his first term and this. It may not be clear yet, but for those who are dependent on US military aid and promises of defence in the face of threat postures by more powerful nations that claim rights to their land and ownership, any waywardness or uncertainty from those who had vowed to come to their defence arouses dangerous fears.

It was bad enough when Trump withdrew last time from the Paris talks on climate change, then amended it to say he would do so when the time is ripe. Despite the naysayers who think that climate change is a hoax by sections of the scientific community or others with vested interests to raise a ‘bogey’ that would frighten some small nations or nations determined to push through development plans and stall them.

But small island nations in the Pacific and even in the Indian Ocean see the damage already done and fear they might sink into the sea even sooner than anticipated; it is no joke for them.

Yet to the Trumps of this world, these are matters that can be cast aside as playthings of this world when they have other ambitions that are more important to write their names across so that posterity will honour them for great deeds done.

Take an issue that has concerned US foreign and defence policy and that of some other western nations—the question of Taiwan, or Formosa as it used to be called in the days of East-West confrontation, and more so with the rise of the People’s Republic of China.

During his first term, Trump resumed cabinet-level meetings and also interaction by senior officials such as those from NASA and the Secretary-General of Taiwan’s National Security Council, to mention some. He authorised record arms sales and regularised the arms sales process and many others that showed he stood steadfast behind Taiwan.

What will he do in his second term? Follow what he had done, or will he change tack and veer off in a different direction? Don’t write it off. He has not undergone a new bluster, not for nothing.

What is more, could there be anything as outrageous as wanting to oust the Palestinians from Gaza and turn it into an international place of entertainment for the world?

If he feels nothing about throwing out people from a territory, which they have long wanted to be an independent state for them, there is little he would not try to do.

What is worse is that other aggressive leaders intent on expanding their territory by grabbing neighbouring land might consider going even further than others, particularly if they have the military muscle and the political clout and no intervention from outside except words of condemnation at most.

It was interesting that a question bordering on this was posed to former President Ranil Wickremesinghe when he was interviewed by Al Jazeera in London last week. With Trump trying to acquire land not only from neighbouring nations but also territory far afield, what did President Wickremesinghe think of neighbouring Indian Prime Minister Modi claiming that the Kachchativu island, which India ceded to Sri Lanka, should be taken back by India? Recently the same issue was raised in the Indian parliament. The question came from the audience.

What is India after—a land grab extending the parippu drop of 1987 to a more humanitarian gesture by growing the lentil at home or promoting a more permanent stay with the help of friendly leaders?

Mr. Wickremesinghe sort of brushed aside the question, saying the fishing issue is more important than Kachchavitu, which India agreed was Sri Lanka territory in a bilateral treaty that was signed between the two neighbouring states years before the parippu dropped from the northern skies.

Trump and Modi—that would be a nice couple pursuing their respective policies—Trump to make America Great Again and India to deal with “Neighbours First,” nice and gentle, one hopes.

(Neville de Silva is a veteran
Sri Lankan journalist who was assistant editor of the Hong Kong Standard and worked for Gemini News Service in London. Later, he was deputy chief of mission in Bangkok and deputy high commissioner in London.)