Columns

• Ruling party campaign in full swing; aims to secure larger victory in local council polls
• Airbus bribery case suspect Kapila Chandrasena spotted golfing in Colombo; questions over efficacy of law enforcement in notifying Immigration officials
• Government’s economic recovery efforts hit hardest by Trump’s massive tariffs imposed on Lanka; multiple strategies are studied to minimise impact
• President promises Easter Sunday breakthrough in investigations; Revelations likely to stir fresh controversy

By Our Political Editor

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake’s government is walking a tightrope, balancing between rays of hope and looming shadows. With the local council elections on the horizon, the administration is pulling out all the stops to win over the public.

The task is not difficult since opposition parties remain in disarray. The main opposition Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) appears less active. It can be gauged from a Colombo district organisers’ meeting summoned by their leader, Sajith Premadasa. Only 16 people turned up, prompting him to say that the meeting would have to be rescheduled. The choice for other contesting parties hinges mostly on their candidates and how much they appeal to voters in local council areas. In other words, it could centre on personalities rather than political parties.

On the sunny side, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit was a diplomatic win. His whirlwind 38-hour tour, capped off in the sacred city of Anuradhapura, was not just a photo op; it was a testament to the deepening bond between the two nations. The symbolism of the visit, steeped in history and spirituality, resonated far beyond the ceremonial handshakes. Adding to this was an agreement for defence co-operation. A highlight is joint maritime co-operation in the Indian Ocean. Other contours remain unknown. One of the hallmarks has been the tough security measures for the visit, easily the highest so far for a visiting dignitary.

President Anura Kumara Dissanayake addressing political rally in Buttala this week, drawing attention to the government's achievements in the past five months

Impact of Trump’s tariffs on Lanka

But the economic front tells a grimmer tale. The United States has unleashed a punishing tariff on Sri Lankan exports, with a reciprocal rate of 44%—a staggering blow to the nation’s trade. Worst hit will be the apparel exports. This move, part of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff hikes, places Sri Lanka among the hardest-hit countries. The government now faces a race against time to cushion the impact. The intricacies of President Trump’s far-reaching new tariffs on nearly all US trading partners threaten to dismantle much of the architecture of the global economy and trigger broader trade wars. The tariff hike also pushes Sri Lanka out of the GSP scheme, cutting duty-free access to more than 3,400 items and jeopardising $3 billion worth of trade.

Critics argue that Sri Lankan policymakers should have foreseen this retaliatory blow and acted preemptively—perhaps by adjusting tariffs to avoid provoking such a move. Now, the government faces a race against time, scrambling for strategies to cushion the impact. Calls to negotiate with the US, particularly by a government minister, ring hollow—why would Trump prioritise Sri Lanka’s concerns when his policy has already rocked much larger economies across Europe? The broader stakes are clear. This is not just about Sri Lanka but a seismic shift in global trade, with Trump’s tariffs dismantling the economic status quo and sparking widespread turmoil. The question is: can Sri Lanka adapt—or will it crumble under the weight of these new realities?

The apparel sector, already reeling from the 44% retaliatory tariff, finds itself in an increasingly precarious position as competing nations like Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines face substantially lower rates, eroding Sri Lanka’s competitiveness even further, while Vietnam and Cambodia’s marginally higher tariffs fail to make Sri Lanka a compelling manufacturing alternative; as Capital Alliance Limited points out, these tariffs threaten to halt the apparel industry’s recent growth trajectory, with recessionary pressures in the US shrinking demand and retailers scrambling to contain earnings shortfalls by squeezing margins across the supply chain, leaving Sri Lankan exporters and manufacturers in dire straits.

This stark reality demands urgent action from the government, whether through exploring untapped markets like Africa or the Middle East, pivoting toward high-value apparel niches such as sustainable production to appeal to eco-conscious Western consumers, or even lobbying for regional alliances within frameworks. This is like South Asia Free Trade (SAFTA) to amplify its voice and address shared trade challenges; domestically, supply chain optimisation through automation or vertical integration could serve as a lifeline. This again is alongside fiscal incentives such as tax breaks to bolster exporters, while on the diplomatic front, joining forces with other nations affected by similar tariffs to pressure multilateral bodies like the World Trade Organisation (WTO) could offer a chance to push back against the global tide of protectionism. In short, Sri Lanka faces a critical juncture where adaptation and strategic innovation are imperative to safeguard its place in the global market. More importantly, it must avoid closure of apparel ventures leading to unemployment and colossal losses.

The news of a US tariff increase would not have come at a worse time for President Dissanayake. After record talkathons during both the presidential and parliamentary elections, he was on the campaign trail again. This time he wants to win the local council elections with a bigger majority. There lies a popularity test for the government. If the theme of his speeches during the two earlier elections was focused largely on fighting big-time bribery and corruption, depriving former presidents of their perks and privileges with a few more, there was also a new addition. It was heaping praise on his own government for a rapid transformation for the good of the economic situation in the country. He declared, “If you recall, about two and a half years ago, the country was bankrupt. The leaders who govern the country and their policies led to this situation. Loans could not be repaid. A country that was bankrupt could not repay loans, could not import oil because it could not earn dollars and could not import gas. Professionals were leaving the country. People hit the streets to chase away those who could not govern. Leaders were hiding in camps and serving themselves. These will not be erased from the memories of the public mind. They will be entrenched in history. Once this happens to a country, the return to normalcy takes over ten years.”

President Dissanayake added, “We have, however, managed to ensure economic stability. We must retain this to ensure the confidence of investors. For the past five to six years, they have not come to the country.”

The U.S. tariff undoubtedly casts a shadow over Sri Lanka’s economic landscape, posing a significant challenge for President Dissanayake. However, the roots of the current stability referred to trace back to July 2022, when Ranil Wickremesinghe took office amidst a national bankruptcy. His leadership steered negotiations for an IMF bailout package, laying the groundwork for recovery. Domestically, his firm stance on protests ensured a semblance of order during turbulent times. President Dissanayake has commendably carried forward these efforts, shaping the contours of IMF negotiations and adhering to the prescribed economic policies. This is a marked contrast from the policies that the NPP-JVP had stood for. His hands-on approach, personally monitoring progress and engaging officials, reflects a commitment to steering the nation through these challenging waters. The question now is whether these measures will be enough to counter the ripple effects of the U.S. tariff and sustain the fragile stability achieved thus far. As is well known, at least officially, Sri Lanka is not yet out of bankruptcy.

The CNN reported on Friday of the aftermath of the tariffs: “I think it’s going very well,” President Donald Trump told reporters on Thursday in the wake of his decision to enact 10% tariffs on imports from any country into the US and even higher tariffs for 60 other trading partners this week. The tariffs have already earned the ire of world leaders as well as vows of retaliation, rattled global markets and prompted at least five US auto plants to lay off hundreds of workers. The administration’s attempt to spin the escalating trade war it started didn’t help. While Trump said the tariffs “give us great power to negotiate”, his top trade adviser, Peter Navarro, told Fox News: “This is not a negotiation.” And Vice President JD Vance said he thought “it could be worse in the markets because this is a big transition.” But that comment fell flat in the face of the worst day on Wall Street in five years and the disappearance of $2.5 trillion from the S&P 500 index. The Dow fell 1,679 points, or about 4%, and the Nasdaq plunged nearly 6%.”

Kapila Chandrasena seen in Colombo

Interestingly, President Dissanayake did not devote much time to speaking about fighting large-scale bribery and corruption in his new campaign trail. He declared that legal action is being instituted in courts against former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He said a person who had picked up an electricity bill on the road outside a luxury house in Kataragama had wanted him to probe the name listed as a consumer— Nandasena Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He had initiated an investigation after obtaining a copy of the water bill. That too was in the name of Nandasena Gotabaya Rajapaksa. However, the former president has said he was not aware of the presence of the house with electricity and water connections in his name. “We will prove what he is saying is incorrect. Electricity and water connections have been installed in a luxury house built on state land. He said that three different state agencies—the Police (Criminal Investigation Department), the Attorney General’s Department and the Commission to Investigate Bribery or Corruption—were working in concert over several cases.

He said he was leaving most other investigations into bribery and corruption to be dealt with by other NPP-JVP leaders. There were paradoxical situations in this regard. In the past months, the media have exposed corrupt activity by the onetime Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of SriLankan Airlines, Kapila Chandrasena. The US State Department sanctioned both him and his family for his involvement in the corrupt Airbus aircraft purchase deal. It confirmed that he received over two million US dollars. A further US $18 million was due to him.

First, the disclosure in these columns on March 30: “Kapila Chandrasena, ex-CEO of SriLankan Airlines, unapologetically pocketed $2 million in Airbus bribes. Despite this, he is basking in Melbourne’s comfort while investigators tussle with extradition hurdles.” Yet, just days ago, the man himself was spotted at the Royal Colombo Golf Club, sipping solo and dining undeterred. Such brazen defiance shakes the very faith in justice. Contrast this with the case of Pingpura Devage Ishara Sevvandi, an audacious imposter who posed as a lawyer to orchestrate the murder of underworld figure Ganemulla Sanjeeva on February 19 in the Hulftsdorp Magistrate’s Court. Here, the police are stymied—unable to trace her whereabouts despite dangling a Rs. 1.2 million bounty for leads. Justice, once again, hangs in limbo. Worse still, Police were even unable to locate their own Inspector General (Deshabandu Tennekoon), on whom there was a warrant for his arrest by the Matara Magistrate’s Court.

Equally troubling is the inaction of law enforcement in notifying Immigration, allowing Chandrasena’s seamless passage through. Meanwhile, a retired officer from the previous Financial Crimes Investigation Division (FCID) celebrated his connections with a lavish party at a social club in Kollupitiya. He is alleged to have exchanged investigation outcomes for cold, hard cash. With each scandal, accountability diminishes—and public trust plunges further into the abyss.

Even if they are not by design, some opposition stalwarts from the districts have ended up on the wrong side of the law in the past days. Former Chief Minister of the North Central Province, S.M. Ranjith, and his sister-in-law, Shanthi Chandrasena, were sentenced to 16 years of rigorous imprisonment for allegedly obtaining a fuel allowance exceeding two million rupees. The Colombo High Court also imposed fines of Rs 200,000 each after a lengthy trial. High Court Judge Adithya Patabendige ruled that the prosecution has proved the allegations against the accused beyond doubt. During his tenure as Chief Minister, the accused, it came to light, had used 16,784 litres of fuel.

The Badulla district’s New Democratic Front Parliamentarian Chamara Sampath Dassanayake, a vociferous critic of the government in Parliament, is facing charges of corruption. He was further remanded by Colombo’s Chief Magistrate Thanuja Lakmali until April 8. Dassanayake, who was taken into custody on March 27, was granted bail in two cases but was ordered to be remanded over the third charge.

The Commission to Investigate Allegations of Bribery or Corruption filed action claiming that Dassanayake, as the Uva Province chief minister in 2016, had solicited funds from three state banks, claiming they were intending to provide bags for preschool children in the province. Two of the banks had complied by granting him Rs. 1 million and Rs. 2.5 million, respectively, which were later transferred to his personal foundation account, and when the third bank refused to provide funds, he allegedly retaliated by withdrawing the Uva Provincial Council’s fixed deposits from that institution. The Bribery Commission claimed that the move caused the government a financial loss of Rs. 17.3 million. Earlier, Mervyn Silva, a former Cabinet minister, was remanded. Together with former parliamentarian Prasanna Ranaweera, they had sold off state land through a forged deed. Ranaweera is now absconding. Legal measures are now under way to seize property belonging to Ranaweera.

Revelation on Easter Sunday masterminds

President Dissanayake has, however, again during his campaign trail, referred to the new probe underway into the Easter Sunday massacres in 2019, a delay over which the Catholic Church issued an ultimatum. Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith warned that church members would hold a protest march from Colombo to Katuwapitiya, Negombo, covering over 37 kilometres. The move jolted the NPP-JVP government for two main reasons: they had maintained close relations with the church, particularly after the presidential and parliamentary elections. The Catholic votes had contributed to the NPP-JVP victory. During that period, the government had assured the church that it would heed its request for a broader inquiry into the massacres. Hence, a team of investigators led by SSP Shani Abeysekera, the retired former Director of the CID, was handed the task. He now holds dual positions—Director of Criminal Intelligence Analysis and Prevention and Director of Central Crime Investigation Bureau. Abeysekera is to be promoted to the rank of DIG. He has made a strong case over how President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration denied him promotions. The new probe is under the control of former DIG, CID, and now Secretary to the Ministry of Public Security and Parliamentary Affairs.

The public announcement of a protest, as reported in these columns, prompted the government to brief Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith about “progress” in investigations so far. A CID team connected to the investigation was present. Thereafter, the Cardinal met the Colombo diocese to discuss matters related to the briefing. Considering this, it had been agreed to delay any further action until April 21, the sixth anniversary. Ahead of this, President Dissanayake has assured on behalf of the government at a rally in Matara that “April 21st marks the anniversary of the Easter Sunday attacks. The investigations into the Easter Sunday terror attacks are being carried out speedily and systematically. Several of those responsible will be exposed before Easter Sunday this year.”

Those familiar with the investigations say the investigators are to “lay bare” what they believe is “an alleged conspiracy” by a group to “ensconce Gotabaya Rajapaksa as President.” At the centre of this “alleged conspiracy” is Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan, better known as Pillayan. He was a former guerrilla of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and entered mainstream politics. Fifty-year-old Pillayan has served as a Member of Parliament and as the Chief Minister of Eastern Province. It is alleged that retired Director of the State Intelligence Service (SIS), Major General Tuan Suresh Sallay, was “the link” between “Pillayan and Gotabaya Rajapaksa.” Sallay was earlier head of the Directorate of Military Intelligence (DMI).  Another “link” is said to be Azad Mowlana, now known to be living as a refugee in France. Several efforts have been made to persuade him to come to Sri Lanka with offers of state protection. It is not immediately clear whether he will forego his refugee status since he will not be able to return. Other unconfirmed reports speak of a written statement made by him. Both Maj. Gen. (retd.) Sallay and Pillayan have denied the accusations in different public fora.

Azad Mowlana came into prominence after a three-member official committee was tasked by then President Ranil Wickremesinghe with probing allegations made during the United Kingdom’s Channel 4 television programme in September 2023. The committee was headed by S.I. Imam, a former judge of the Supreme Court, and comprised President’s Counsel, Harsha A.J. Soza and Air Chief Marshal Jayalath Weerakkody, a retired commander of the Sri Lanka Air Force and High Commissioner to Pakistan, under Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration.

The committee probed some 25 statements made by Mowlana in the Channel 4 programme. They include:

n     There was a direct relationship between a senior Sri Lankan intelligence official and the terrorist group which carried out the bombings.

n     A plan was hatched to create chaos and fear to bring back to power Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa; they are two brothers who had ruled Sri Lanka for a decade but who had been ousted from power a few years ago.

n     The attack was not planned in just one or two days. It has been planned for two or three years. It was a very big plan.

n     Zaini Hashim Maulavi was held in prison on charges of religious extremism. His brother Zahran Hashim was hiding and recruiting followers for the National Thawheed Jamath or NTJ. The  NTJ was an Islamic group which wanted to turn Sri Lanka into a caliphate. (A caliphate is a politico-religious state ruled by a caliph. The term comes from the Arabic word “khalif” meaning succession or stewardship). They want death, death, death. They want to go to paradise. Pillayan says we can use this group and that they are not interested in anything in the world. They were released three months later.

n     On January 18, 2018, on the orders of Pillayan, a meeting has been organised between Suresh Sally and the above group.

This is what the Committee’s findings revealed after they probed Mowlana’s remarks: “Our unanimous finding is that, as noted, the above allegations made in the Channel 4 telecast by Azad Mowlana are unproved at this inquiry. (Note: Mowlana did not appear before the committee.) The truth as to who masterminded the Easter Sunday bombings in April 2019 is shrouded in Byzantine politics. We did not have the material at the inquiry to unravel the political maneouvers of various parties. This was beyond our mandate. Throughout this inquiry we were guided by the ordinary safeguards of the presumption of innocence, proof beyond reasonable doubt, the Audi alteram partem rule of natural justice, etc., usually adopted for the imposition of criminal liability.”

The last paragraph in the report’s findings is a damning indictment on President Maithripala Sirisena. This is what the committee said: “We felt that the former President, Maithripala Sirisena, would be able to provide us relevant information in view of his recent outburst as to who organised and orchestrated the Easter Sunday bombings in April 2019, and indeed as to his own conduct as the head of the country and the armed forces. It is regrettable that he declined our request to testify before us. We are disturbed that despite reports and information being readily available regarding the intending April 2019 Easter bomb attack, no action was taken to prevent the occurrence of that tragedy.”

The impending new revelations are sure to generate another controversy, with findings coming six years later. This is after some of the world’s leading investigation agencies have probed the incidents and come to the same conclusion the involvement of ISIS.

Nevertheless, if the apprehensions of the Catholic Church are addressed, they would back the NPP-JEP government at local polls and the provincial council elections thereafter.

For President Dissanayake, the recent events have been good and bad, with a few elements of ugly. The latter came when a VIP lady politician held talks with a high-ranking cabinet minister of an Asian country dressed in a pair of trousers and a salwar top. Not a saree, the national embodiment. Locally another VIP asked a police top brass to immediately transfer the officer-in-charge of a police station. The reason—a complaint had been made to him by a drug dealer, with an array of court cases, who is a strong supporter. This, however, has been revoked by the Police Commission, triggering a new controversy. In another instance, a police station in the greater Colombo area has been the venue of a custodial death. All do not seem well with the Police. It brings to mind the election promises of NPP-JVP leaders to put a complete stop to such practices for which they blamed previous administrations.