The separatist war in the north is fast settling into a political phase.

Whilst the Government claims to be at the doorstep of a historic moment after liberating over 200,000 people from the clutches of the LTTE, Velupillai Prabhakaran and the LTTE continue to maintain a stoic silence interrupted periodically with vague statements alluding their non aversion for a truce with international mediation.

Whilst the Government pitch is aimed at the domestic political scene, the LTTE thrust is entirely focussed on drawing international attention. It is obvious that each has its own different motivations.

The People's Alliance appears to be having its own internal pressures in maintaining a healthy coalition. The major constituent partner, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party seems beleagured by its inability to effectively exercise its policies in a fractured Government where it cannot afford to disintegrate without a defeat in Parliament.

Faced with this situation, not very much unlike that faced by Britain's John Major in maintaining his slender majority in the face of the IRA imbroglio, the People's Alliance no doubt sees the current military successes in Jaffna as an instrument to lever favourable political opinion which it could exploit should the need arise to face the hustings.

The Government also probably hopes that a winning situation in the north would counter balance the build up of Sinhala opinion against the Government for its devolution package. This would also dilute the security forces and the Buddhist clergy on the devolution issue which is based on the elimination of terrorism before the need to consider constitutional changes including the implementation of the package.

While the politics of electoral gain is of concern to the Government in the south, it is another story in the north. Here the issue is to win the hearts and minds.

Undoubtedly the return of over 200,000 refugees is a plus factor for the Government. But whether this can be read, as Professor G.L. Peiris says in voting with their feet is still to be seen. Whether these retraced steps to the outcome of a lack of confidence and faith in the LTTE or whether it is spurred by material interest is the question.

It is axiomatic that for any militancy the population must be in sympathy with the cause. It is generally recognised that the Tamil diaspora living out of north and east in a totally different set of circumstances to their brethren in the operational theatres are by and large in empathy with the espoused Tamil cause and by extension with militancy.

No doubt those in the north and east too were of like opinion for the LTTE to achieve this strength and stature they have. Whether over the years the populace of the north have turned their back in order to win the hearts and minds without the winning of which there can be no victory.

After more than two weeks of re-capturing the Thenmaratchi sector, there is an acute shortage of food in the liberated areas. Although adequate stocks are reported to be available in Kankesanthurai, the lack of lorries and even fuel has posed a serious problem. It will be several weeks before the infrastructure facilities are put in place by the Government.

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In this context beating the victory drum appears to be premature even though the Government has undoubtedly made enormous military strides.

The LTTE has not yet revealed the new phase of a revised military strategy. The flurry of activity in support of the LTTE overseas certainly indicates that it have not given up on the war. The pitch of the LTTE in the last few months has been to discredit the armed forces in particular and the Government in general.

In the last two months the LTTE has deliberately maintained a low key posture whilst intensifying its international activity.

Strangely so when the demands against "Operation Riviresa 2" to intensify military activity. This is of course a realistic strategy considering their military imbalance in conventional warfare. This no doubt would have a strategy of defence balancing space versus resources. This has not, however, dimmed the sabre rattling by the LTTE. Their latest statement in the news release of May 7 states

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it would appear that the LTTE is content at this stage to adopt a politico-psychological campaign against the country internationally. It has many reasons to do so.

One is that with its military weakness, it cannot confront and defeat the Army. In this situation its best option would be to pressure the Government internationally against the military option.

The LTTE must also be conscious that the carnage of the Central Bank bomb resulted in international opinion against it. In that situation if it is to launch out into guerrilla terror tactics which is its only option, it must win some favourable opinion amongst the international sympathisers.

At the moment the military situation is the reverse of the old adage and could be paraphrased to be that the Government is winning so long as it is not losing where as the LTTE is losing so long as it is not winning.