Year on the Web
Year on the Web
With exactly two weeks to go for the second anniversary of Eelam War Three, the People's Alliance Government dropped a bombshell on Thursday.
In the words of Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar, "The President and the Leader of the Opposition have exchanged letters about a number of arrangements which are intended to develop a common, cross country approach - a bi-partisan approach - towards the resolution of the ethnic conflict in our country."
He released to the media copies of letters exchanged between President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Opposition Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe. The two letters, both dated 2nd April, 1997, were identical in content.
In terms of it, Ms Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Mr. Wickremesinghe, had agreed on three significant matters. They were:
1...the incumbent Head of Government will brief and seek the opinion of the Leader of the United National Party on significant developments relating to the ethnic conflict, both in the strictest confidence, if in Government, the Leader of the United National Party will reciprocate;
2. the party in opposition will not undermine any discussions or decisions between the party in Government and any other party, group or person, including the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, aimed at resolving the ethnic conflict, if these discussions and decisions have taken place with the concurrence of the party in opposition;
3. against the background of such concurrence, on election to Government either party will honour all such decisions in full.
Mr. Kadirgamar told a hurriedly summoned news conference on Thursday that he has had a number of discussions with Mr. Malcolm Rifkind, the British Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs and Dr. Liam Fox, the Under Secretary of State, about the British experience of bi-partisan approaches in relation to the problems of Northern Ireland. "Dr. Fox's advice about this experience has proved to be most useful," he declared.
One of the closely guarded secrets in the past months has been Dr. Fox's shuttle diplomacy between London and Colombo. A doctor by profession and a Conservative Party MP, Dr. Fox has been playing the role of honest broker to end the 15 1/2 year old separatist war by finding a solution to the ethnic conflict. In the past several weeks his London telephone has been busy with calls to Colombo.
Dr. Fox was here early this week on a 24 hour visit. In behind the scenes diplomacy, he brokered the draft of the letter Ms Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Mr. Wickremesinghe exchanged.
The exchange of letters, by any standards a historic event, went off without any fanfare of publicity. Evidently there were no plans on hand to make a formal public announcement, certainly not this week.
But the Island newspaper on Thursday reported in its main story that there was speculation about Britain being involved in a mediation effort to settle the ethnic strife with the arrival of Dr. Liam Fox ......"
The first response to the report came from the British High Commission on Thursday morning. A spokesman said "Dr. Fox was on a brief unofficial visit to Sri Lanka on his way back to London from Bangkok. He arrived at 2030 hrs on April 1 and left at 2000 hrs on April 2.
"He called on a few friends, Her Excellency President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Hon. Leader of the Opposition, Ranil Wickremesinghe and Foreign Minister, Lakshman Kadirgamar."
But as the day went by, the news had surprised the diplomatic community, puzzled the Defence establishment and confused the moderate Tamil political parties. It triggered off speculation that a cease-fire was imminent during Sinhala-Hindu New Year. There was also speculation that the Government was on the verge of resuming talks with the LTTE "unconditionally."
Mr. Kadirgamar's news conference on Thursday evening set out the factual position, as it stood, that day. And that was the fact that Ms Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe had agreed to adopt a bi-partisan approach towards the resolution of the ethnic conflict.
But in London on Thursday, April 3, (the same day the spokesman said he was on a brief unofficial visit to Colombo), Dr. Fox issued a statement.
He declared ....."I am delighted that the leaders of these two parties have agreed to adopt a bi-partisan approach to ending the ethnic conflict including dealings with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam......... I am glad that we have been able to play a part in bringing about this agreement...."
On what has been officially disclosed, a diplomatic source said, it is clear that the PA Government has not only acknowledged but accepted a third party facilitator to end the ethnic conflict, including in the words of Dr. Fox "dealings with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam." He observed that "third party mediation" was a dirty word now in diplomatic parlance and hence it was not fashionable to use it. Since the United National Party is only the mainstream opposition, with no Governmental authority, it is noteworthy to observe how it agreed to a common, bi-partisan approach.
When Opposition leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe, received a draft of the letter from Dr. Fox (which he exchanged with the President), he called upon Mr. A.C.S. Hameed to study the contents. The veteran politician who was also a Foreign Minister, went through it and came up with an addition.
The original draft to item two of the three points agreed upon read: "the party in opposition will not undermine any discussions or decisions between the party in Government and any other party, group or person, including the Liberation Ti**gers of Tamil Eel, aimed at resolving the ethnic conflict.
Mr. Hameed wanted the following sentence included: "if these discussions and decisions have taken place with the concurrence of the party in opposition;"
That was agreed upon and is reflected in the copies that have been officially released. Another suggestion to have it approved by Parliament, however did not materialise. What does that mean ? Very simply, the UNP will not "undermine any discussions or decisions" the Government will reach with any other party, group or person including the LTTE. That is if such decisions "have taken place with the concurrence of the party in opposition."
There lies the real issue. The two sides have agreed to a bi-partisan approach "against the background of such concurrence..."
The question of concurrence has undoubtedly been one of the major contributory factors that has exacerbated the ethnic conflict. What a senior member of the UNP, who spoke on grounds of anonymity, underscores the position. "For us, it does not mean anything. We are only demonstrating the fact that we are not against a solution. Any agreement they (the Government) reached will have to receive our concurrence. Otherwise it will not receive our support."
As for the LTTE, it has remained cautiously silent. Officials at the LTTE's London office say they are yet to receive word from Sri Lanka. But on Friday the clandestine Voice of Tigers said that the Colombo Correspondent of the BBC learnt from Ministerial sources that they would help develop a bi-partisan approach at impending "negotiations with the LTTE." The last few words appear to be a clever addition to a story BBC broadcast from its Colombo correspondent, Ms Flora Botsford.
The British initiative came in the backdrop of elections in that country on May 1. It is not immediately clear whether the initiative came with the concurrence of other western nations and their allies. However, there is little doubt it would receive their blessings and approval.
On Friday, the Australian Government welcomed Thursday's announcement. In a statement issued in Canberra, Foreign Minister, Mr. Alexander Downer, said "It is important to recognise that while this constitutes a remarkable achievement, there remains a lot of hard work for the Sri Lanka Government and the Opposition parties in overcoming their differences concerning the devolution package and reaching a bipartisan compromise, including ways of bringing the LTTE to the negotiating table."
There is no gainsaying that the ongoing ethnic conflict has a political dimension for which conflict resolution initiatives are imperative. But this latest move has raised more questions than answers, in fact there is no answer in it. However, it does raise a multitude of questions and issues for political analysts to dissect and examine.
The public taken unawares by this announcement have mixed feelings on the matter. Many have not comprehended the nature of the contents of this agreement. Some regard it as a step forward towards solving the separatist war. Some consider it a betrayal by the UNP in consenting towards the devolution package.
The polarity of these opinions itself expresses the confusion in people's mind and of the division of their thought process on the traditional lines of political division vis-a-vis the UNP and the SLFP groups.
Few understood that the agreement is purely not to disagree on matters on which there is a bi-partisan consensus on the ethnic question. Now this is significant as the agreement not to disagree does not extend to other political matters which are equally important to the national development as is the ethnic question.
In fact confrontational and divisive politics have since independence been the bane of this country if not its ruin. The lack of consensus on the ethnic issue is merely one. The Bandaranaike-Chelvanayakam Pact and the Dudley Senanayake-Chelvanayakam Pact are historic milestones manifesting the political division of this country in matters of national importance.
Almost in every field of human activity political interference is evident as the retarding factor to public well being and progress. Agreement for a national consensus on the ethnic issue is indeed welcome but unless there is a lowering of political temperatures so that the house will be put to order by eliminating confrontation. It is unlikely that consensus on one aspect can be arrived at whilst the body politic is sharply hostile on every other matter.
The call of the day is less politics and to subordinate political parochialism to the national interest. In spite of the fact that this agreement has little impact on the wider political balance of the country, there is nevertheless a glimmer of hope that the agreement may at least contribute fractionally to bring a national attitude to the ethnic question.
On the separatist war front, this raises several questions. First and foremost, the entire ball game for peace depends on whether the LTTE wants peace or war. The track record of the LTTE and their chicanery during three cease-fire peace initiatives does not support any other alternative than their death wish for war and more war.
This is not only against the perceived enemy, the Sinhalese, but also against their own community or those of other Tamil speaking communities who stand in the way of the LTTE. How can there be any hope for peace. That brings us to the question of militarily weakening the LTTE
Unlike the situation in Northern Ireland, where the Sinn Fein is the political arm of the IRA, the LTTE has no overt political front.
The only political appendage of the LTTE, if one may call it that, are the declared LTTE organisations in the western countries and the pro LTTE media centres in some countries. In this context, the surreptitious visit of LTTE's "Roving Ambassador", Lawrence Thilakar, to meet his leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, is significant. It is difficult to imagine that Thilakar, a well known personally at least to western intelligence, could have travelled totally incognito unnoticed. The timing of this agreement on the heels of Thilakar's visit seems more than a co-incidence.
A more significant aspect is the fact that Thursday's announcement coming in the backdrop of the ongoing military efforts also raises some questions if not a few eye brows.
It has been claimed by PA leaders that the war is 75 per cent over. The inference is that only mopping up remains to be done. Backing this up, the Army Commander, Lt. Gen. Rohan Daluwatte, has claimed (Situation Report - March 7) that the LTTE is a weakened force. Of course, both these claims have been made earlier and how much is wishful rhetoric, how much is fact is questionable.
In spite of this, the Army is in the process of raising a new infantry division, the 55 Division to meet the "weakened LTTE threat."
Implicit in the agreement between the PA and the UNP is the acknowledgment that the LTTE have a role to play in a future peace process. This is hardly in concert with the demonstrated LTTE disdain for peace either with the Government or with other Tamil political groups. It also implicitly devalues the reasoning that an intransigent LTTE has to be beaten militarily to restore normalcy, democracy and ethnic harmony. In this backdrop the agreement seems to generate its own controversies against ground realities.
All that said and done, a weak link in the politico-military strategy of the Eeelam conflict over the 15 1/2 years has been the lack of a clear cut political aim to defeat the political aspects which are the cause of the conflict. Not the least of the difficulties in formulating a political strategy has been the lack of national consensus between the mainstream political parties.
In fact a part of the Tamil grievance has been that the mainstream political parties cannot be relied on to have a joint approach to a solution. In that sense, perhaps, this new agreement does provide a ray of hope.
The new agreement appears to be a much ado about nothing in its wider political aspects. However, there is a ray of hope that it may be a step forward towards reducing political confrontationalism in the larger national interest. If it turns out to be so, then this agreement will be a landmark. Only time can tell.
The announcement of the agreement last Thursday came as the Sri Lanka Army was readying to co-host a top level military meeting in the United States together with the US Army's Pacific Command.
High ranking military officials from 37 Asia Pacific and Indian Ocean nations assemble in Honolulu, Hawaii, from today till April 12 for the 21st Pacific Armies Management Seminar. This time it is being co-hosted by the United States and Sri Lanka Armies.
The countries taking part include Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, Fiji, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kiribati, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, United Kingdom and Nepal.
Deputy Minister of Defence, General Anuruddha Ratwatte, and the Chief of Staff of the US Army, General Reimer, will deliver the keynote addresses at this seminar.
The Sri Lanka delegation led by Army Commander, Lt. Gen. Rohan Daluwatte, left for Hawaii on Friday. Other members of the delegation are Major General Siri Peiris,Brigadier Kumban Bohran, Brigadier Nihal Marambe, Brigadier Sisira Wijesuriya and Lt. Col. Vikum Siriwardena.
Besides a welcome address by Lt. Gen. Daluwatte, Major General Siri Peiris,will make a presentation on "Personnel Aspects of Structuring Forces."
The theme for this year's seminar is "Training Forces for the 21st century." Other topics related to the theme that will come up for discussion include Roles and Missions of Armies in the 21st century, Technology's Role in Training, Training for Nonconventional missions, Personnel Aspects of Structuring Forces and Reserve Component Integration.
The long term objectives of PAMS conferences are promoting peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, Indian Ocean region through understanding, friendship and communication.
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