With the ongoing "Operation Jaya Sikurui" (or Victory Assured) due to reach its 100th day in the next two weeks, there will be some good news to Sri Lankans soon.
At long last, the much awaited link up at Puliyankulam portends to become a reality, if not in the coming week, certainly the week after.
This is despite a third fierce counter attack the LTTE launched on the 551 Brigade's western defences at Arasa Murivu Kulam, a village north of Omanthai on Friday night. This came soon after men of the 55 Brigade began a limited advance.
Heavily armed Tiger guerrillas estimated to be around 600 infiltrated the sectors manned by the Police and the Air Force.
A pitched gun battle which began at 10.30 p.m. on Friday night continued till well past 3.30 am Saturday. Additional re-inforcements rushed in from neighbouring sectors.
As dawn broke 22 Army personnel (including two officers), 35 Policemen (including an ASP who died of a heart attack) and 13 Navy personnel (including two officers) were killed. There were fears that the death toll which now stands at 70 would rise since some of the more than 120 who are injured were in a serious condition.
Military officials said LTTE casualties were also high. The Operational Headquarters of the Ministry of Defence claimed that "100 terrorist dead bodies have been recovered." It added "Ground troops had also observed over 200 dead and wounded being carried away..."
Military officials in Vavuniya who spoke on the telephone said by noon yesterday they had recovered the bodies of 45 Tiger guerrillas. Even by evening yesterday, clearing parties were busy collecting the dead bodies and despatching the injured to hospital. A fuller picture of how the counter attack occurred is yet to emerge.
This is the third counter attack on troops on "Operation Jaya Sikuruiî and they were all on the 55 Division. There were indications that LTTE was also making preparations to stage a counter attack on the 53 Division.
Dogged by two earlier counter strikes that virtually stalled the offensive and forced military planners to re-think strategy, it was only a week ago that "Operation Jaya Sikurui" had re-commenced. This time without any glare of publicity.
Troops on the main flank, the 55 Division advancing along the A 9 - the main highway from Vavuniya to Kilinochchi - have extended their advance to the southern end of Puliyankulam. Whilst they consolidate their positions, troops from the 53 Division, bolstered by additional troops, began the unpublicised advance. They are now said to be less than two kilometres from Puliyankulam.
The thrust by the 53 division (made up of the Air Mobile Brigade and infantry units), whilst the 55 Division held their positions, has not been without LTTE resistance.
There were at least three major confrontations, the last on Thursday. An officer and 16 soldiers were killed but troops overcame the resistance to continue their advance.
The impending link up at Puliyankulam, three months after the launch of "Operation Jaya Sikurui", will signal the completion of the first phase of the operation.
A senior military official said when the task is achieved, they would have re-captured 24 kilometres of the A9 highway from Vavuniya to Puliyankulam. "We will still have to cover another 42 kilometres to reach Kilinochchi," he said.
This means that a third of the declared objective of "Operation Jaya Sikurui" would have been achieved after its launch on May 13. With that, before their next move, the security forces would have to complete an important task.
That is to consolidate their defence lines northwards from Omanthai to Puliyankulam and thereafter eastwards through Nedunkerny, Weli Oya area straight through to the coastal military base at Kokkuthoduwai.
That in effect is intended to deny LTTE a contiguous land area south of Mullaitivu. A high ranking official at Army Headquarters who spoke on grounds of anonymity said that this "process of consolidation" and would take anything between two to three months.
"We will have to strengthen our defensive positions effectively to exploit the gains we will make with the link up at Puliyankulam. It is only then that we can focus on the next phase of "Operation Jaya Sikurui", he declared.
His assertions clearly indicated that "Operation Jaya Sikurui" is without doubt destined to continue into the next year, 1998 - much to the chagrin of PA leaders who vowed to end the separatist war this year.
A continuing war against the LTTE in 1998, just the year before Parliamentary elections are due (in 1999), will not only distract the Government from its priorities in the economic front but also pose a heavy burden in terms of funding the war and raising the much needed human resources. Neither will war casualties which are bound to occur be of any comfort to the electorates whom the Government obviously have to woo.
It is no secret that quite apart from the counter attacks, manpower problems also affected the conduct of "Operation Jaya Sikurui." So much so the Government was compelled to declare an amnesty to woo soldiers who have deserted ranks. The amnesty which was declared for the period July 10 to 21 was extended by a further five days.
The Ministry of Defence claims that 4206 soldiers responded to the amnesty offer and reported to their respective regimental centres. The number is said to include deserters who have left their positions on two occasions or more. Military Police teams are now combing the countryside to arrest deserters. During operations last Wednesday and Thursday they had rounded up 36 deserters. They face jail sentences after being tried by a Court Martial.
Anxiety over the mystery of the ship carrying 32,400 mortar bombs 81 mm continued throughout last week.
Fears about a possible LTTE involvement heightened after the arrival in Colombo last Wednesday of a senior official of the Zimbabwe Defence Industries. He has had a series of discussions with military officials.
At a high level meeting at Army Headquarters yesterday the Zimbabwe official insisted that his company had executed the order placed by the Government of Sri Lanka. He told senior Army officials that the shipment was loaded on May 21 to a vessel which the Zimbabwe Defence Industries had part chartered with an Israeli Company. It had been transported overland across the borders of Zimbabwe and loaded from the port of Beira in Mozambique.
Thereafter on May 24 the ship had sailed to Walvis Bay (South Africa) with cargo destined for Windhoek in Namibia. This cargo was being carried by the Israeli company. It is only later that the vessel had arrived in Madagascar on July 2 and was destined to sail to Colombo.
According to the Zimbabwe Defence Industries official the name of the vessel to which the cargo has been loaded is 'Limmasul Victoria' - a name which adds further confusion.
A purported LTTE fax message to a western diplomatic mission in Colombo, which sparked off the mystery of the missing ammo ship, named the vessel as 'Stillus Victoria.'
The claim by the Zimbabwe Defence Industries official that the military cargo has been shipped creates a serious poser for the Sri Lanka Government. The claim for insurance for loss of cargo will have to await submission of fuller proof.
The Government has already updated Interpol with the newer developments and sought their assistance to ascertain the identity and profile of the Israeli company which reportedly part chartered the vessel with Zimbabwe Defence Industries.
They were seeking to ascertain whether such an Israeli company existed or whether it was any kind of ploy by the LTTE. Did the LTTE front the name of an Israeli company ? The Zimbabwe official, however, did not think there was an LTTE involvement though he is unable to say where the cargo has gone. He has raised queries on the likelihood of rival arms dealers who failed to secure orders causing some confusion.
However, military authorities in Colombo have no evidence to entertain such suspicions. Moreover, they ask how a rival arms dealer could succeed in indefinitely delaying another supplier's shipment. Some Military officials involved in ordering the consignment of mortar bombs are also entertaining suspicions on the supplier. They feel the supplier may not be in a position to manufacture the quantity. Yet they are unable to explain how the purported LTTE fax came.
Military officials have learnt from western intelligence channels that they did not doubt the bona fides of the supplier. They point out that there had been no known instance where ordinance factories owned by the Zimbabwean Government would resort to dubious ways to delay orders. They also point out that the arrival of the Zimbabwean official in Colombo to track down the whereabouts of the military cargo is further proof of their bona fides.
The Zimbabwean official will remain in Colombo for the next few days until military authorities hear reports from the Interpol and other countries from whom help has been sought.
The resistance by the LTTE to "Operation Jaya Sikurui" has without doubt jolted the defence establishment which on the experiences of "Operation Riviresa" and "Operation Edibala" would have expected a smoother passage to Kilinochchi.
The resistance has, according to some military observers, exposed some inherent weaknesses. Whilst the sharp edge of the battle hardened regular cadres is able to cut its way through LTTE resistance, the problem to the military has been to secure and consolidate on the re-captured areas.
This has revealed the lack of training and experience of back up cadres. This shortcoming manifestly affects the security of the artillery deployment supporting the advance but also has made vulnerable the administrative echelons in the rear which are critical to the support of the advance elements.
This will obviously be an important factor which will deny most likely the Army from its original aim of opening the Main Supply Route this year.
This weakness will not be an assurance to the strength of the defence system extending from Puliyankulam, Nedunkerny through Weli Oya to Kokkuthoduwai.
The corollary to this is that the LTTE will have a flexibility of operational options in the northern theatre of conflict in addition to the tactical advantages they have already wrested in the eastern province.
This is the dilemma facing the security forces as indeed it is what reflects on the inability of the Government to reap any political benefits.
Thus both politically and militarily whilst the Government has not lost out so far, it has been denied the benefits which it hoped to reap from "Operation Jaya Sikurui."
No doubt this would cause much embarrassment to those who make speculative declarations "percentaging" the war statistically to pronounce that 85 per cent has been won and only a mere 15 per cent remains. No longer is such "bravado" opium to the masses.
Perhaps these comments may attract the newly launched "harassment and surveillance" operations on me again by those lesser mortals who did so earlier to kow tow to the pantheon of politics. Independent views, if they are divergent, seem to be allergic to them.
To make comments which are not sweet music to the ears of some may be distasteful. As much as sweet music to lull the public to a false sense of complacency is as distasteful.
More so with the media being denied all access to the battle areas with the public having to depend on the political and bureaucratic establishment for information. Unfortunately it has been the history in Sri Lanka to make those pronouncements to glorify those who make such declarations.
Only credibility can motivate the public to wholeheartedly support national causes. For this, the truth is essential.
"Operation Jaya Sikurui" has not failed. Neither has it succeeded in its fullest aims.
The public must be made to understand the realities of the situation and its difficulties so that they are prepared to carry the hardship which war brings in its wake in the larger interests of the nation.
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