Hong Kong. The Cassandras were wrong, quite wrong. No trouble at all. In fact a near perfect operation, cool and correct. How characteristically Chinese. And on Monday China staged live missile drills to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). And now business as usual.
And yet there could be trouble ahead. "What happens to Hong Kong after July 1st 1997 will, by revealing China's attitude to the world, be the crucial event of 1997." wrote Dominic Zieglar, China correspondent for the Economist.
The United States the sole superpower, has called for elections free and open to a post-colonial assembly. What has apparently upset the United States is the legislation that permits the deportation of children who had immigrated illegally, reported a British journalist, John Ridding. There is always going to be a question about these laws as long as there is a democratically elected assembly in place" he predicted.
This American concern was plainly stated by no less an authoritative spokesperson than President Clinton's Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright. But the latest news should ease the anxieties of Indians, businessmen and old "settlers" like some Sri Lankans, in Hong Kong.
On Tuesday, India and China had another round of talks aimed at the old border dispute which erupted in a serious clash of arms in 1962. The Indian Foreign Secretary K. Ragunath and his counterpart, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxuan held a two day meeting that led to a joint working group meeting, an arrangement which followed the 1962 border war over a territorial dispute.
The question of free elections is likely to remain the sensitive issue in the post-transition year or more. Certainly the Clinton administration and its EU allies are certain to regard free polls to replace the provisional legislature as the true test of China's solemn pledges.
Hong Kong's advocates of greater democracy insist that the proposed P. R. was sure to narrow the electoral college franchise. At this point, the US State Dept. entered the fray. The State Dept. said it had not seen any reason whatsoever to justify changes in the polls process and basic rules."
Singapore style
Will Hong Kong go the Singapore way..... the Singapore of Lee Kuan Yew, the brain behind the Singapore miracle, a perfect marriage of dynamic capitalism (though Lee Kuan Yew was a "socialist"!) and Confucian ethics, meaning self-imposed discipline. Can the 'new' Hong Kong turn out to be a second Singapore? The answer is political and mass psychology. The people of Hong Kong have tasted democracy; the people of Singapore were not given a chance.
Spokesmen of the PRC (Peoples Republic of China) have taken care on each important occasion to impress on the world, through the media most of all, that its actions were not just legal but proper. The rank we noticed rose as D-Day approached.
"Recently the Chinese Government presented Notes... concerning the application of relevant treaties to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) as of July 1, 1997. The Chinese Government will also in the days to come comprehensively elaborate via the Secretary General of the United Nations on the principles and approaches regarding the application of the relevant clauses to the HKSAR said Cui Tiankai, official spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry in the Beijing Review (July 7-13).
Taiwan issue
It was at a press conference that a western reporter asked the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman about the recent visit to Los Angeles of Taiwan's "Foreign Minister" Chang Hiiao-Yang. "China always opposed any official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan. China issued stern representation to the United States expressing serious concern and dissatisfaction. It asked the United States to strictly observe the principles of the three SINO-US joint communiques and fulfill its promise that any US-Taiwan relations are strictly unofficial and do not interfere with Sino-US relations."
Yes, Taiwan is the Big issue... the Big One as American reporters persists in warning. Hong Kong is different. No strategic implications. Hong Kong's last Governor was quite thrilled when H. K. Was described as "the new York of Aisa."
Light Touch
China has come along way in the past few years and whatever the problems, the journey has been managed with remarkable skill. From North Korea's economics and a closed society in the 1970's to today's capitalist revolution represents an astonishing transformation. We should not underestimate China's ability to manage the return of Hong Kong provided it can remember the importance of a light touch in dealing with Hong Kong itself and a firm touch dealing with those who try to interfere in Hong Kong from the rest of China" warned Governor Christopher Patten, in a signed contribution to The World In 1997 published by Economist which Karl Marx, the Great Teacher of Mao-Tse-Tung, the great teacher in our day described as the ablest defender of capitalism."
This has nothing to to with Hong Kong but does qualify as another success for Chinese diplomacy, albeit in another region.... this region, South Asia. On Wednesday, the two most populous countries, China and India re-affirmed their commitment "to a constructive and cooperative relationship oriented towards the 21st century would be in the fundamental interests of the peoples of the two countries."
It is the conflict between the leading regional states, India and Pakistan, and not India and China, despite the border, that will persist in undermining the chances of a peaceful sub-continent.
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