4th January 1998

Why the Congress stabbed the UF in the back

India faces uncertain political future

By Prakash Chandra

It has now become clear to all that the Congress president, Sitaram Kesri cannot be trusted to back any coalition for any length of time unless it suits his political purpose or perhaps individual ambition.

Mamta Banerjee, the fire-brand Bengal leader has sharply criticized Mr. Kesri and his tribe for hobnobbing with the CPI (M) and indirectly scuttling the Congress.

The unseen hand of Sonia Gandhi is trying to soothe tempers. No one knows whether Mamta Banerjee who commands a large support in west Bengal will finally bow down and campaign for the Congress. Her enemy number one is Jyoti Basu and not the BJP.

Now this is different from the Congress position which has constantly attacked the BJP and communal forces as their principal opponents.

The untouchability factor perhaps has not many takers even in the Congress party. The trouble is that the BJP presents several faces. There is the dictatorial attitude of Mr. Advani and his fascist backers, Vishwa Hindu Paridshad and the Sena people from Bombay.

Atal Bihari Vajpayee whom the BJP has designated as a prospective Prime Minister prefers to disguise the communal issue. He wants the party to contest on the all important question of economic development and the uplift of people below the poverty line.

Those close to Vajpayee argue that he wants the BJP to emerge like the Tories in the UK and Republicans in the US.

Vajpayee is a genial man with capacity for hard work and ability for winning friendship with neighbours and even potential enemies.

But many observers doubt whether Mr. Vajpayee will have a free hand even if he is elected to power by some mischance. For the country does not seem to back the BJP's claim for leading the government.

Some critics say that Vajpayee wears a mask. He conveys a false sense of comfort to those who like to see a secular image in BJP's philosophy.

The 14 days of power as Prime Minister left Mr. Vajpayee a wounded political animal. And this makes him a formidable enemy for the Congress party. Mr. Vajpayee's drive to win the maximum number of seats starting from Uttar Pradesh to the south of Vindhya's backed up by Mr. Advani's no holds barred campaign is still considered a doubtful venture. The BJP's chances will brighten only if the United Front - united at the national level and split in the states continues to worsen.

For it is crystal clear that the UF partners are going to oppose each other when ever it suits them. Their coalition is opportunistic and tricky.

They would like the people to believe that they can join hands at the centre while killing each other politically in the states. It is difficult to imagine the UF under Chandra Babu Naidu capturing a larger number of seats than what they have now.

Their fond dream is that they can do without the crutches of the Congress party. For they are used to the back stabbing tactics of Mr. Kesri whom they believe is an aspirant for the top job - the Prime Ministership. It is absurd to believe that Mr. Kesri can even think of becoming Prime Minister when he lacks the tact and political wisdom of a leader worthy of such an office.

The gentleman Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral lacked the political finesse but he had charm, ability and a degree of persuasiveness. He had managed to create a false sense of security for the coalition. He also succeeded in launching the not too successful Gujral doctrine.

Mr. Gujral will be remembered as a Prime Minister who attempted to achieve the impossible but slipped on the political banana skin. It is not known whether Mr. Gujral will once again emerge as Prime Minister although he has the backing of that unpredictable Bihari leader, Laloo Yadav.

For the King maker has returned not to power but to politics.

Regrettably the former Bihar Chief Minister, Laloo Prasad Yadav was symbolically in the prison. It will be more accurate to say that he was under house-arrest and was free to receive political visitors and even visiting ministers from other states.

The Laloo factor will keep everybody guessing. If reports are true he has plenty of cash to run an election campaign. But what he does on a national level it is difficult to imagine. For the Congress is splitting and is a divided house.

If Mr. Kesri believes that he can bring back the old Congress wallas into the fold, he is mistaken.

For the Congress is already broken in Uttar Pradesh which once was the seat of power. The BJP has sown the winds of power which they hope to harvest later.

They will face the combined wrath of the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samjwadi Party. Even if the latter do not fight the battle together, it will not be easy for the BJP to fight the Congress as well as other political units.

His only hope is Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Yet no one in Delhi is prepared to bet his money on the Congress winning more seats in UP.

In Orissa the situation is bad enough with Janata Dal splitting. The BJP may derive some comfort from a weak Congress and even weaker Janata Dal.

The Congress chances in Bihar are supposed to be beefed up by Laloo Yadav. But he will demand his pound of flesh.

Many analysts believe that Laloo Yadav is still caught in the midst of several money scandals.

Legally it seems he has not been cleared of all scams. These cannot be wished away. It is difficult to imagine how the Congress can fight corruption while supporting corrupt forces almost everywhere. It is difficult to imagine how the Congress can join hands with the ousted Chief Minister, Jayalalitha and still talk about combating corruption.

Many observers say that Kesri is nursing impossible dreams. He lacks the charisma to lead the Congress party to victory whatever his admirers in the party might say. The Congress high command is divided even at the top. You have Jitendra Prasad, Mr. Pilot and some members of the working committee critical of Kesri's political style. They are also depending on the Sonia factor although Kesri has no admiration for Sonia's ability to conduct an election campaign.

The prospects of a coalition government emerging at the end of the day are clear to many people. Only the BJP and the Congress are fondly hoping that they will be winners all the way. The question is who leads the coalition.

Will it be the Congress or the BJP. And unless the Congress and the BJP can join hands, it will be impossible to form a national government or even a stable administration. In all these calculations we should not forget the crucial role of that wily political animal, called Mr. Surjeet, the Communist (M) leader who is the power behind the throne in the UF administration.

Perhaps that was the reason why the Congress stabbed the UF in the back. As one Congress leader says, "The number of communist MPs in parliament was not so large and yet they managed to control the UF. And nothing could happen without Surjeet's tacit support.

"We should not allow this to happen again. While the communist movement has fallen everywhere. Will India be governed by a small communist party lending its strength to the so-called UF which will be fighting each other at the state-level.

Altogether it is a confused picture with Laloo Yadav throwing his hat in the ring and a series of alignments and re-alignments emerging on the scene. The election commission is itself sharply divided on the hot issue of Shiva Sena.

The coming weeks will decide the fate of India. For it is also facing an economic crisis although not on the same scale as the ASEAN countries.

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