Commentary

19th April 1998

IRA:life is at stake?

By Mervyn de Silva

Long before newly inde- pendent, Third World countries were ravaged by what we now call 'ethnic conflict", William Butler Yeats, the great Irish poet, had written: "Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold, mere anarchy is let loose....." words that have become part of the contemporary discourse, thanks mainly to the media, leader-writers and columnists most of all, and speech-writers of VIP's.

Meanwhile, the phenomenon of conflict, race and religion chiefly, saw political ideologies (communism, most of all) lose their mass appeal and dynamism. Identity replaced ideology. The collapse of the Soviet Union was another crucial factor. Communism had failed to preserve the unity of the Soviet Union. On visits to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia etc. to the Central Asian (mainly Muslim) I observed how these republics reasserted their distinctive, separate identities. While parallels may be established between the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Ireland, the differences were more stretching and complex in the first two. Yesterday's headline, Irish agreement wins massive public support, may be quite close to the truth. A Kosovo, or a Balkanization process, is most unlikely, partly because the problem of unequal development (gross disparities) is not a serious issue in northern Ireland.

Here is a report from Belfast which strives to capture the popular mood in different communities, income disparities notwithstanding:

"Twenty years ago, John Maxwell stood on the seashore in stunned disbelief. He was waiting to collect the remains of his 15 year old son Paul who had worked as a boatboy to Lord Mountbatten. Both had been blown out of the water by an IRA bomb. Now he has a 15-year old daughter called Kerry. Reflecting on the peace accord that could finally bring peace to Northern Ireland he said: "Hopefully her future would be brighter....."

This little story which the Reuter correspondent has skilfully woven into the much bigger political report, introduces another angle...... and a skeptical reserve:

Preacher-politician Ian Paisley has launched a no campaign. Explaining his move to the press, he declared rather solemnly (pompously?) that he is trying to save the very lifeblood of the union with Britain. His "ace" is a statement by Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams, the authoritative spokesman and, often top negotiator of the movement. His tactical line is not to oppose but not to give the impression of an uncompromising hardliner. That could alienate those supporters who will accept any serious proposal that could be "a step on the path to Irish unity". The IRA and Gerry Adams' guerrilla supporters have announced that they are closely "studying" the accord. This may be a honest declaration. No serious leader of an organisation like the IRA, can afford to commit a tactical mistake. Life is at stake.

Besides, Mr. Adams must also keep a close watch on the manoeuvres and public statements of Ian Paisley, the rabble-rousing preacher... a politician-preacher. The moment Mr. Gerry Adams began to speak to his supporters in a serious effort to convince them that the official offer deserved at least serious study, and if necessary, public support. That stage will be over soon but till the decision, the final posture, is known it would be a mistake to talk of "the light at the end of the tunnel". After all, experts of unconventional war and/or independence or liberation struggles, know only too well that "war-war/jaw-jaw" (or vice versa) is the pattern known to all analysts and specialists of this kind of armed struggle.

Time-Table

The other critical matter in this sort of negotiations between "State" "States" and non state actors is a carefully prepared time- table, which has been drawn up only after a close scrutiny of the time-tables of the other parties, certainly of the more important players. For example, top-rank Irish decision-makers did make it quite clear that unless everything was wrapped up by mid-April, there would not be enough time for the proposed referendum, wrote Belfast-based John Murray Brown. "A shorter time-span" is what Mr. Bertie Ahern, prime minister of the Republic of Ireland, urged. This is not quite what suits Prime Minister Tony Blair whose April diary could not easily accommodate Mr. Ahern.

Irish Discord

Divisions have emerged in the Irish leadership too. In an article he wrote to the Northern Ireland papers The Irish News, Mr. John Hume, who leads the Social Democratic party, which is described as 'Nationalist and Social Democratic" (my emphasis) accused Sinn Fein of "re inforcing sectarian politics". In an article published by the Irish News, Mr. Hume accused the political wing of the I.R.A. of "engaging in selective reminders of the nightmare through which both communities have lived" In short, the I.R.A. was raising the temperature so that public opinion will be hardened i.e. no compromise.

In such situations, negotiations to settle "the longest war" become exceedingly difficult. The moderates (that is the group or party which seeks a negotiated settlement) have guns aimed at them from both sides. In a word, the negotiated settlement is devaluation. How? How much? There could well be an impressive majority for devaluation. But devolution is only a word. What is to be devolved? How much? In what areas? It is when that debate starts that "devolution" becomes "too much" in the eyes of "too many" or "too little" in the eyes of the minority. Then devolution becomes a four-letter word.

Many years ago I asked the deputy editor of a leading Fleet St. newspaper: "So who calls the shots....?" His reply: The boys with the guns....". An exaggeration, I think. But he made his point.

Hulftsdorp Hill

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