The Political Column

27th September 1998

Set and ready for snap polls

By our Political Correspondent

With a presidential election on the cards, major political par ties are gearing for the snap poll early next year.

A final decision on the date of the presidential election is likely to be taken at the ruling SLFP's annual convention in January. But the leadership of the UNP is reported to be still having doubts whether President K=umaratunga would go for an early presidential election.

If a decision is taken to hold an early election it would be because the PA feared defeat by the end of the term, a top UNPer told this column.

Sources close to the President say the Presidential Election is likely to take place in early March - that means a full one and half years before schedule.

President Kumaratunga if she so decides will make use of the Fourth Amendment to the Constitution which empowers the incumbent to hold the Presidential Election once he/she completes four years in office.

A party which came to office with the solemn pledge of abolishing the executive presidency and the entire Constitution now plans, not only to use the provisions therein for re-election but to continue with the Executive Presidency for another term.

PA leaders are known to be well aware that their popularity, especially the historic 62 percent vote at the last Presidential Rlection is diminishing fast but they apparently feel they would have an edge over the UNP, if an early election is held.

But UNP sources also point to a practical problem. Even if the President wants to, one may not be able to hold early Presidential Elections if the Court of Appeal gives a ruling for Provincial Elections to be held on the basis of several petitions filed before it.

It would be difficult, if not impossible, to hold Presidential and Provincial Elections at the same time, given the shaky security situation.

The government argument for the Presidential Election is that any substantial number of security personnel would not have to be pulled out from the north as the number of candidates would be at most ten, compared to about 3000 for a Provincial poll.

The Presidential Election campaign could be mainly carried out through TV and media with only a few rallies, thus minimising the security threat.

Government sources say most of the Tamil parties have expressed readiness to help the President in her campaign in the North and the East.

The Tamil parties feel Ms. Kumaratunga could get a substantial vote in the North-East largely in view of the UNP's failure to come up with acceptable alternative proposals for devolution of power.

In addition the government could use the military presence in the North and East in its favour.

Thus it will start the campaign with a block vote in its pocket.

The other main factor in the Presidential Election would be a matter of personality. PA frontliners feel that in terms of dynamism and charisma Ms. Kumaratunga stands head and shoulders above opposition UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

This may be true, but can personality alone win an election for the PA?

Economically the country is going through hard times with the tea market facing uncertainty because of the chaos in Russia which is one of the leading buyers.

Developmentwise, the country has seen little by way of major projects like the Mahaveli.

The President claims it took several years for the PA to put the economy on the right track, but any fruits of this growth have clearly not flowed to the majority of the people.

The unkindest cut recently was the Goods and Services Tax which has imposed unbearable burdens on the people from the birthplace to the graveyard.

In this backdrop it would be unrealistic even for hardcore PA supporters to accept a comfortable victory for Ms. Kumaratunga.

The smaller Tamil parties and the SLMC might help the President but they might ask her to extend the life of Parliament through a Referendum.

They might ask for this because they don't want to risk their lives campaigning in the LTTE infested North and East.

Though a substantial part of the North is under military control still no one would be safe there. Within the past few months, the LTTE has killed three brigade commanders and two mayors of Jaffna as a grim warning to any politician who think they are safe in the North.

So much so the TULF may not appoint a third mayor for Jaffna.

If the government agrees to the demand by the smaller Tamil parties for a referendum in exchange for support at the Presidential Election, then it will be taking the same illegitimate and undemocratic course that J.R Jayewardene took in 1982. But the PA has little option.

In the meantime, former UNP strongman Sirisena Cooray has stormed back to mainstrean politics with a statement that must have given a boost to the PA. Mr. Cooray announced at a news conference on Wednesday he might contest the Presidential Election as an independent candidate, obviously hoping to rake in not only the anti-PA votes but also the anti-Ranil votes.

However, PA leaders feel Mr. Cooray would attract the pro-Premadasa vote in the UNP more than the PA vote and this would be advantageous for the ruling party. Sources close to the Cooray camp say their aim is to emerge as a strong third force and they believe they could win 15-20 seats at a General Election. They are looking for support from Hema Premadasa and family and other prominent figures such as the North-East Governor Gamini Fonseka who is challenging the president to fire him.

This former film star was known to have been a confidante of Mr. Premadasa and should have no difficulty in aligning with the essentially Premadasa ideology of the Cooray camp.

If we assume that Mr. Cooray as a Presidential Candidate would seriously eat into the UNP vote bank, a parallel factor that needs to be considered seriously is the JVP's on-going action plan which might take a substantial slice off the PA vote.

Intelligence reports indicate the JVP is growing fast and its recruitment drive is cutting heavily into the PA's youth vote.

Another plus factor for President Kumaratunga over Mr. Wickremesinghe is the excellent international image she has created for herself.

While the ordinary members of both parties are speculating about what might happen, the two leaders are in the United States.

The President was in New York to address the UN General Assembly and meet world leaders including the crisis-hit President Clinton while Mr Wickremesinghe is raking in dollars for the party in Los Angeles.

Mr. Wickremesinghe and Mr. Bandaranaike who accompanied him on the fund raising trip were scheduled to attend a dinner dance at La-Marriot Hotel in Los Angeles. Mr. Bandaranaike will be giving the ceremony in connection with his father's commemoration day, a miss this year.

Mr. Wickremesinghe in a message to Sri Lankans in the US says:

"The UNP has a message to people of Sri Lanka. In opposition we have had time to reflect and in doing so, we have drawn up a programme to transform our country to grapple with the dynamics of the new millennium. Fresh blood, new ideas, progressive programmes, a structured plan of action to give our people a feeling of being citizens of one country to live in honour and dignity has been formulated. "Please help me to usher in this new vision to the people of our country."

Mr. Bandaranaike's message states:

"Mr. Wickremesinghe and I would be present at a Fund Raiser for the UNP to be held on September 26, 1998, at the Los Angeles Marriott Hotel.

I would appreciate it if you can take time off from your busy schedule to attend this important event. It would be my pleasure to welcome you on this occasion." Another significant political event in Colombo was the farewell party in honour of out-going Indian Diplomat Jothy Singha.

Among the guests were EPDP leader Douglas Devananda, PLOTE Chief D. Siddharthan and several CWC MPs.

The UNP was represented by Susil Moonesinghe, Tyronne Fernando, Stanley Kalpage, Rohitha Bogollagama and others. Mr. Singha is tipped to take charge of the Sri Lankan desk at the foreign office in New Delhi.

Mr. Singha is known to be of the view that the government's devolution package was good. But it has not made much headway in implementing it with or without the help of the UNP.

Not only Jothy Singha but also UNHCR representative Peter Meyer is a disappointed man.

His lament is that the government of Sri Lanka has not co-operated to the extent that he hoped it would with the UNHCR in carrying out its role.

He told friends at the Singha reception that he also would be leaving Sri Lanka soon and going away a sadder man.

Apart from these, the UNP's all-party conference which also turned out to be a disappointment was also talked about at the reception. Some diplomats quipped the UNP could have called it a party conference to achieve certain goals rather than an all-party conference.

It now seems that the UNP is reviewing this issue and may not go ahead with another session to discuss ways of bringing about more fairplay in elections.

The UNP is blaming Minister G.L. Peiris for the failure of the conference and is targeting him as the main opponent of the party.

As a counter attack the UNP is planning a campaign to call for the resignation of Minister Peiris for the major legal blunder in the Mahanama Tillekeratne controversy.

Party Whip Tyronne Fernando fired the salvo first in Parliament but Dr. Peiris proved that he was a better politician than an academic when he snapped back and asked whether the UNP's Justice Minister resigned over the killing of lawyer Wijeyadasa Liyanarachchi, the police attack on a monk and LSSP frontliner Vivienne Gunewardena and several other incidents.

The debate ended with UNP sources warning that the party had more ammunition to be fired at Dr. Peiris but the Minister appears to be quite good at fighting back.

As for Tyronne Fernando, he appears to be somewhat disappointed if not disturbed these days over the decision to overlook him and appoint W.J.M. Lokubandara as the Chief Opposition Whip.

It is now rumoured that Mr. Fernando later went to see an astrologer in Dambadeniya along with another MP and a former Mayor from the North Western Province.

They were reportedly told by the astrologer that the UNP would not come to office at the next elections and might have a change of leadership within a couple of years.

The astrologer predicted that the party would then call upon other well known party members to carry the UNP mantle.

Meanwhile the biggest ever legal controversy in recent years - the furore over the illegal arrest of High Court Judge Mahanama Tillekeratne is taking a new turn after the President removed Bandula "Show" Wickramasinghe from his powerful post in the CID. The wheel is now grinding towards CID Chief Punya de Silva who had apparently directed 'Show" Wickramasinghe to arrest Mr. Tillekeratne.

New Police Chief Lucky Kodituwakku is also deeply concerned about the crisis and called an urgent meeting of Senior Police Officers to discuss the issue.

The controversial "Show" Wickramsinghe will now have to appear before the Court of Appeal on charges of contempt of court.

In another police dispute, Superintendent Lalith Lekamge has written to the DIG in-charge of logistics, complaining about the unauthorized entry to his office by two senior police officers. The letter states:

"I was holding the post of Director Supplies till September15, pending transfer to Mannar.

From September 10, on the advice of my physician, I remained at home on medical leave. On 14.09.98 at about 5 p.m. I was informed by WPC. Anne, two senior officers entered my office and ordered her to leave and ransacked the office. This was subsequently confirmed by CI Quintus, OIC (Supplies).

I make this official complaint specially because there were some sensitive documents concerning the above named officers, one of whom I have recommended for interdiction. In addition there were vital documents with regard to tenders, such as testing reports, complaints against the tenders etc.

I would most kindly request that an inquiry be held to determine the necessity of breaking into my office and to ascertain the shortages if any.

The Police are facing problems in several areas including the vital CID, the TID and logistics unit. Indeed the new Police Chief faces a local equivalent of the Augean stables.

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