Commentary

11th October 1998

Glimpse of the new world order?

By Mervyn de Silva

Yugoslavia - the fallen idol. For the radical intelligentsia and the first post-independence political elite in what came to be known as "the Third World" Tito was the hero, and Yugoslavia's foreign policy the model. "Non-Alignment" was Yugoslavia's proud banner in "a postwar world already dominated by what columnist Walter Lippman had called the Cold War", a world already threatened by two power blocs, led by two former allies, the US and the USSR.

Nehru, not Tito, was the authentic architect of Non-Alignment but Nehru was smart enough to recognise that a divided Europe would be the new battlefield, a battle between two "isms", communism and capitalism.

He was right to recommend Belgrade as the venue of the first NAM summit, a historic conference which the world's first woman Prime Minister, Mrs. Bandaranaike of Sri Lanka, attended.

In the last decades of the 20th century however identity, ethnic identity has asserted itself as the strongest mobilising force, often divisive and destructive. Tito's Yugoslovia is one of the bloodiest battlefields right now. Kosovo has been invaded by the international media, a new force, and an important actor, in the post-Cold War drama.

"Diplomats admitted that events on the ground were outpacing their efforts to find a political settlement. Fighting is no longer confined to separatists and government forces. Neighbour is now fighting neighbour in inter-ethnic conflict," wrote Guy Dinmore, a British correspondent, reporting the scene in Pantina, Serbia. One old farmer broke down in tears, recounting how his family was forced to take flight after being attacked by Serbs they had known for years. " They were our neighbours. We didn't do any harm to them," he said.

Who can help stop the carnage? "The United Nations" would probably be the reply, a strong chorus.

Critics of the United Nations often scoff at the UN's impotence in major crises, certainly bloody armed conflicts. Such sceptics may have raised a quiet cheer last week. It was when Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic persisted in defying UN Security Council resolution 1199 - or pretended to conform to 1199 -that President Clinton decided that it was time for the sole superpower to act. Quite naturally, the United States was in no mood to play "Globocop".

Too many young American lives lost in some remote battlefield for reasons not always clear to the average American voter is the clearest invitation to the president's opponents and critics. And the White House is already besieged by the conventional enemy, the Republicans, a G.O.P. - dominated Senate, and most of all by the media, a superpower of sorts.

Since the White House is also under siege domestic problems so to say, NATO is the obvious choice.

And so to NATO.... as the best instrument for "conflict resolution". The United Nations Security Council Resolution 1199 makes military intervention legal and legitimate. Will it be a precedent in a world threatened by "domestic" or "internal" conflicts - many of which could involve neighbours or become a serious security problem for them?

The choice of Mr. Richard Holbrooke, introduced another factor.

What of the United Nations? "The NATO allies told Holbrooke on Monday there had been no easing of the Kosovo crisis despite Belgrade's insistence that its military offensive was over and troops were pulling out" reported Guy Dinmore, a British correspondent based in Pantina, Serbia.

This assessment will be reflected in the final report to the UN Secretary- General Mr. Kofi Annan. What we are in fact watching is the new drama of ethnic conflict and conflict resolution, with the engagement of two major players - the United Nations and the United States, the world body and the sole superpower. When there is agreement, the exercise could be fair and effective. But if the UN and the US involvement leads to a clash of interests, what would be the outcome? Would the will of the sole superpower prevail? "Yes" would probably be the popular reply. What if the White House itself is under siege?

Marshal Tito, quite an expert on warfare, including the unconventional, was a Communist who challenged Stalin and the Soviet Union. Dis- union, a resurgence of nationalism and economic disasters, and a huge military budget saw the Soviet Union collapse. What now of Tito's Yugoslovia? Mr. Milosevic has offered Kosovo "autonomy". Is it too little, too late?

The next move will probably be President Yeltsin's. All eyes then on the Kremlin.

Hulftsdorp Hill

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