The Political Column

11th October 1998

Cooray-Hema meeting: What will come up?

By our Political Correspondent

Amid continuing reports of a snap presi dential election, the political equation took a significant turn, when former UNP kingpin Sirisena Cooray was joined by former first lady Hema Premadasa for a widely publicised meeting in Colombo.

It was a meeting arranged by the Premadasa Centre to renew what it called the Premadasa concept but the political implications went beyond it.

The meeting drew a large crowd, especially supporters from the Premadasa-Cooray stronghold of Colombo Central.

It was a major step for Mr. Cooray who was perhaps waiting for an opportunity to show the antagonistic UNP hierarchy that he is still very much a strong man with or without the party.

Most observers saw it as an important and calculated move by him towards a slot in the presidential election, though he himself says no final decision has been made.

Mr. Cooray insists he does not want to be a spoiler candidate or harm the UNP of which he had been a frontline member for decades. But he says he will come forward as an independent candidate if the situation demands. Many have challenged Mr. Cooray on the basis he is no more a member of the UNP. But he says he would attend UNP forums when the need arises.

Mr. Cooray has warned it would be detrimental to the UNP leadership to make what he sees as rash judgments and issue statements regarding what he said on TV recently.

"They jump to conclusions without much thought and plant stories in the newspapers,'' Mr. Cooray told this column.

He said he had no intention of backing the PA government after four years of governance. "I could have done it at the beginning if I wanted to,'' he said.

Whatever the intention, it is clear that Mr. Cooray is re-entering mainstream politics and the magnitude of the dent he would or could make in the UNP remains to be seen.

Other reservations apart, none in the UNP would underestimate the organisational skill of Mr. Cooray, which he demonstrated during the Premadasa regime. That Mr. Cooray has accumulated experience mingling with the masses of this country, when he accompanied President Premadasa to remote areas of the country is acknowledged in UNP circles.

Now he is trying to reap the benefits of what he sowed during the years. He has the inbuilt machinery for this and some observers feel the UNP could be affected if he hits the campaign trail.

Some observers think the UNP should seriously think again about Mr. Cooray factor before it poses a threat of division. Perhaps, it was such a concern that prompted two businessmen close to both Mr. Cooray and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe to discuss this issue at length.

These businessmen, one linked to a multinational company and the other a reputed tea trader, were on a Pakistan-bound flight from Colombo when this discussion took place.

But they believed it would be difficult to convince Mr. Wickremesinghe to take some steps for the re-entry of Mr. Cooray.

On the other hand, Mr. Cooray also says that he is not interested in re-joining the UNP.

He is of the view that the quality and the standard of the UNP and its image as a non-communal and a united party has diminished with some minority groups leaving the party on the grounds that it is propagating only majority interests.

It is learnt that Mr. Cooray has initiated a dialogue with minority groups, which have expressed readiness to back him if he comes forward for the presidency. It is still "early days" as yet, and such assurances may or may not materialise into concrete form as election day approaches.

In addition to H.R. Piyasiri's political party in the South, support for Mr. Cooray is also likely from another UNP veteran Wijeyapala Mendis who was suspended from the party recently after a prolonged battle with Mr. Wickremesinghe.

But Mr. Cooray in the current political upsurge is also losing some close associates. One is former Deputy Mayor M.E.H. Maharoof who Mr. Cooray had groomed for the post.

Mr. Maharoof is known to be close to party leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. That may be one of the reasons why he is facing major problems over his cement-packing plant in the Colombo Port.

The government is apparently making moves to shut down this factory for security reasons.

One clause in the agreement between the gove rnment and the Swiss investor is that the operations of this plant could be closed down with one month's notice if it poses a threat to the security of the Port.

Now the government might compel the Swiss investor to dump Mr. Maharoof if they wish to continue the project.

In the meantime it is reported that Mr. Maharoof had got through to Ports and Shipping Minister M.H.M. Ashraff with the help of a Colombo businessman. The final decision on this will be taken by the Ministry of Industries. Both the Swiss investor and Mr. Maharoof had met the Ministry's Additional Secretary.

With Mr. Cooray factor also emerging, the Presidential Election is likely to take place during the early part of March. As a prelude the SLFP is planning an annual convention in the third week of January amid reports that a change in the party presidency is likely. Mrs. Sirimavo Bandaranaike is expected to step down. But President Kumaratunga is not likely to be the successor. Instead the SLFP presidency may go to veteran Minister Lakshman Jayakody or Speaker K.B. Ratnayake.

Ms. Bandaranaike is also likely to step down as Prime Minister with a senior minister such as Ratnasiri Wickremanayake likely to succeed her.

But all these equations could change if President Kumaratunga wins the next presidential election and in the afterglow paves the way for the re-entry of Anura Bandaranaike.

At present the PA is gearing itself for the snap presidential election.

While the UNP faces a threat to its vote bank from the Cooray camp, the PA's main worry is the extent to which the JVP could win over the youth vote. But PA leaders are convinced that the JVP factor would not be a major blow.

Several committees appointed by the President to monitor various areas are meeting regularly to prepare the ground for elections.

A part of the fund-raising programme is also shouldered by key officials such as BOI Chairman Thilan Wijesinghe and PERC Chairman Mano Tittawella.

The government got some plus marks on the international stage when its commitment to the constitutional process and the devolution of power drew warm praise from officials representing all sectors of the United Nations System in New York.

UN personnel were briefed in detail about current initiatives of the Chandrika Kumaratunga administration with regard to power sharing, rehabilitation, human rights and related matters at the UN headquarters in New York by Minister G.L. Peiris.

Among those present at the luncheon meeting was Olara Otunnu, Special Representative of the UN Secretary-General for the Protection of Children in Armed Conflict areas.

The meeting was hosted by Jayantha Dhanapala, Under-Secretary-General for Disarmament Affairs.

The UN officials observed that they found particularly the useful and comprehensive information put at their disposal with regard to the work of the Parliamentary Select Committee over two years and the extensive devolution of authority to the regions contemplated in the draft Constitution.

Minister Peiris explained to the UN officials that the government in its sustained attempts to fulfil the two-thirds majority requirement in Parliament had offered to accommodate any alternative proposals made by the opposition, provided these changes were acceptable to the minority parties.

Officials representing the higher echelons of the UN system said that they were impressed by the appeal made by President Kumaratunga, in her address to the General Assembly two weeks ago, for concerted global action against terrorism, against the backdrop of her government's unwavering strategy directed towards the political empowerment of minority communities.

Mr. Otunnu, at a separate meeting with Dr. Peiris, indicated disappointment at the breach by the LTTE of specific assurances given to him that children would not be recruited into the cadres of the LTTE before the age of 17 and that they would not be deployed in combat until 18.

The extensive rehabilitation work undertaken by the government in the areas affected by the war - especially with regard to the restoration of electricity, the revival of the courts system, fisheries, agriculture, education and health - was brought to the notice of the UN system by Dr. Peiris at this meeting.

While Dr. Peiris was meeting UN officials, opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe met key officials in the US administration during his fund-raising tour to Los Angeles and Washington.

Though the fund-raising campaign was not as successful as expected, Mr. Wickremesinghe is reported to be pleased with the fruitful discussions he had with key officials of the Clinton administration.

This part of the tour was organised by one of Mr. Wickremesinghe's close friends, Devinda Subasinghe who is working for the World Bank.

The sum collected during the much publicised fund-raising campaign was below expectations and one political wag quipped that through one telephone call in Sri Lanka the party would have got more than US $60,000.

Though without a fistful of dollars, the UNP is gunning for the government on the Kilinochchi debacle.

At the group meeting on Wednesday, the party decided to call for the appointment of a Parliamentary Select Committee to probe the calamity. This came after the party turned down another proposal to move a motion of no-confidence on Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte.

The UNP also unanimously decided to call upon the government to lift the military censorship which was senseless and to tell the people the truth about the huge casualty figures.

Besides the Kilinochchi debacle, the UNP is also worried about developments in the Eastern Province. Politics in the Eastern Province is normally quiet and hots up only during elections. However Muslim politics in the Ampara District has recently become controversial. The question of Muslim representation in the Ampara District has been worrying the UNP supporters after the failure to nominate even one Muslim MP in 1994.

Mr. A.C.S. Hameed, when he was the Chairman of the UNP made a strong bid but lost out when Mr. Wickremesinghe opted to nominate Dinesh Dodangoda, and this led to a breakdown in understanding between the two and Mr. Hameed quit the Chairmanship. The question of Muslim representation in the Ampara District figured often and whenever the UNP supporters from the Ampara brought it up with Mr. Wickremesinghe, they were offered no solution.

During Mr. Wickremesinghe's absence from the country, a crisis had developed and two other former UNP MPs, Uduman Lebbe and Rizvi, resigned from the UNP and joined the SLMC. This was a big boost to the SLMC, which had lost part of its strength in the Eastern Province in recent times.

Rumours were afloat during Mr. Wickremesinghe's absence that a National list MP from Kegalle District would be asked to resign and Mr. Majeed, who was an SSP and resigned to contest during the last elections would be appointed to this vacancy.

Meanwhile, another disgruntled group of UNPers have also formed an Independent Front and are expected to contest the next elections in the Ampara District. Former Minister P. Dayaratne who is in charge of the Ampara District in a statement to a Tamil daily has dismissed the resignation of the two MPs as a blessing in disguise and good riddance of bad rubbish.

Another interesting development was the recent discussion among some diplomats on the current situation.

The occasion was a farewell dinner hosted by former BOI Chairman Rohitha Bogollagama in honour of out-going Indian diplomat Jothy Singh.

US political attache Andrew Mann and former Minister Tyronne Fernando were among those present. While both Mr. Bogollagama and Mr. Fernando spoke of plus points for the UNP at the next presidential hustings the diplomats felt the UNP is stuck on its concept of a unitary state.

The diplomats said the UNP had failed to come up with alternative proposals acceptable to the minorities while the PA proposals went beyond the 13th Amendment. They felt a Federal system would be the only solution.

The UNPers insisted that devolution should be needs based and should go before the people for their approval at a referendum.

Another headline of the week was the squabbles in the United Lalith Front of Sirimani Athulathmudali.

Now it appears that there are sharp differences between the ULF leader Ms. Athulathmudali and her lieutenant Ravi Karunanayake.

The differences between them came up at a dinner hosted by the Fredrich Nauman Shiftung to welcome their South Asian representative to Sri Lanka. Ms. Athulathmudali was seen dining with Colombo Mayor Karu Jayasuriya while Mr. Karunanayake was relegated to a table far away.

According to Mr. Karunanayake there is no serious problem with Ms. Athulathmudali but a difference of opinion, which could be settled amicably. At the ULF Working Committee meeting held recently serious objections were raised to a new party Constitution which gives sweeping powers to Ms. Athulathmudali. This is the main cause of the friction in the party.

Subsequently four-member committee was appointed to go into the matter and propose amendments.

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