Ashraff factor and SLMC's decision

The government has now decided to hold the elections for the north west- ern provincial council. The elections are likely to be held on January 28. The ruling PA has nominated deputy minister S.B. Navinna as its chief ministerial candidate while the UNP is fielding the formidable Gamini Jayawickrema Perera who held this post earlier.

Mr. Jayawickrema Perera was also a cabinet minister in the D. B. Wijetunga government. On the day of nominations, the UNP was faced with the problem as to whom it should field as its chief ministerial candidate because Nimal Bandara the immediate past chief minister stood his ground.

The UNP hierarchy felt that Mr. Jayawickrema Perera was a more suitable candidate than Mr. Bandara. They found that Mr. Jayawickrema Perera could take a challenge thrown by the PA and had decided to include three more formidable candidates in its team including Asoka Wadigamangawa and Nimal Bandara.

Sarath Welagedera who was once the UNP member of parliament declined an offer to contest.

When the dispute of the chief ministerial candidacy arose, UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe, assisted by general secretary Gamini Atukorale and the working committee member Rohitha Bogollagama resolved the problem after having a dialogue with Mr. Bandara. They told him that party interest should come first and eventually Mr. Bandara agreed to contest under Mr. Jayawickrema Perera.

In the meantime, the PA has allocated each electorate in the north western province to a cabinet minister to launch a vigorous campaign for the provincial election.

Some ministers said that Mr. Jayawickreme Perera would face a tough time from the PA since they felt that the UNP was responsible for many disappearances in the north-western province. The number disappeared from the Kurunegala district alone topped thousands, one minister told this column.

It is likely that the government would take some steps against Mr. Jayawickrema Perera and some of the UNPers in the Kurunegala district for alleged land transaction and this would figure prominently in the election campaign for the north-western province.

However, a section of the PA believes that the nomination of Mr. Jayawickrema Perera as a chief ministerial candidate for the NWP election is a hoax. They believe that the UNP is trying a ruse to trap the government on their plans and to see as to how they would react to their decision.

In an interview with our sister newspaper Sunday Lankadeepa, Mr. Jayawickrema Perera, however, dismissed speculation. He says he has come forward at the request made by the UNP leadership and he will contest the election.

Meanwhile, the PA is studying how the electors in the north western province would react at the next election. A junior minister of the area, however, has said it would be difficult for the PA to win this election.

The PA's election strategy was also discussed at the central committee meeting last week in the parliamentary complex. The meeting went on till about 10.30 in the night where the President spelt out as to what action should be taken in view of the forthcoming elections to the NWP.

They discussed at length their election strategies and the UNP's moves to grab the provincial council. Some observers have warned of possible dangers during the election because most of the unlicensed guns and weapons are in the NWP.

The PA is planning a vigorous campaign in the NWP against the UNP by bringing to light various incidents that took place during the UNP regime. Accordingly it will publish three booklets on the (1) Batalanda commission, (2) Land grab by the UNP and its cronies, (3) Lalith Athulathmudali's assassination to hit at the DUNF (Lalith Front) which has decided to go along with the UNP.

At the central committee meeting of the PA, two ministers were involved in a heated argument over certain activities and actions of Minister M H. M. Ashraff.

Minister A. H. M. Fowzie raised the issue and said Mr. Ashraff was spreading his tentacles all over and doing things in other ministries under the name of rehabilitation. He also accused Minister Alavi Moulana of collaborating with Mr. Ashraff.

This remark sparked off a heated argument between Mr. Fowzie and Mr. Moulana.

Mr. Moulana defended himself while accusing Minister Fowzie of inaction. The President then said that if Mr. Ashraff was not wanted here, Mr. Fowzie should be able to get votes for the SLFP and blamed the SLFP's Muslim wing for its lethargy. The President pointed out that the Muslim organisation of the SLFP has not worked towards achieving its goal, hence Mr. Ashraff's contribution was important.

At this stage, deputy minister Vishwa Warnapala charged that the committee on public enterprises had received many complaints against some institutions under the Ports Ministry. Mr. Ashraff's role in the PA was discussed at length, but it appeared that the PA could not forge ahead without the SLMC.

Expressing his views after the central committee meeting, Mr. Fowzie told friends that the President took up the position that the SLMC should not go alone while being a part of the PA.

But the SLMC is yet to decide. The SLMC hierarchy on Wednesday night discussed this matter at length. They could not arrive at a decision till 4 o' clock on Thursday morning. They met on Thursday evening.

The basic problem with the the SLMC appears to be Mr. Fowzie who is making it difficult for the SLMC to be a part of the PA. This was taken up by Mr. Ashraff when the PA executive committee met last week to discuss matters pertaining the NWP elections.

According to reports, there had been lengthy deliberation on the SLMC's position where Minister Ashraff told the PA executive committee that some ministers in the PA appeared to have forgotten the SLMC's support to the government. They were not taking serious note of the SLMC's contribution, Mr. Ashraff complained.

The present problem also stems from the SLFP's central committee meeting where Mr. Fowzie accused Mr. Moulana of backing SLMC activities. Mr. Fowzie was critical of Mr. Ashraff and even had to argue with the President on Mr. Ashraff being nominated to the delegation to liaise with the business community.

It appears that Mr. Fowzie has taken it up personally with the President.

But in the President's view the constitution of this delegation was quite different from what Mr. Fowzie thinks. She wanted a broader spectrum to be represented. While the SLFP hierarchy locked itself up in debate on the role of Mr. Ashraff, the SLMC high command considered the merits and demerits of going along with the PA.

They gave much more thought than anything else to the President's personal appeal, where the SLMC leader was called upon to contest with the PA.

The SLMC hierarchy having deliberated for a long time referred the matter to a smaller committee to take a decision after consulting relevant people.

It is likely now that the SLMC will go along with the government. It is difficult at this juncture for the party to leave the PA since in the SLMC's view it is the only party committed to resolve the ethnic crisis. In SLMC's view going alone means that it would be unnecessarily strengthening the UNP when the UNP had not done anything per se to solve the ethnic crisis.

Helping the UNP at this particular time when the UNP is being viewed as a credible alternative to the PA is futile, SLMC sources said. Though the SLMC is at a disadvantage when contesting along with the PA under the PR system, it is much more committed to keep the PA together under the leadership of President Kumaratunga. Hence it is likely that it will go along with the government at the north western provincial elections come what may.

The Sri Lankan ethnic conflict: a case for mediation

By Ameen Izzadeen

LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran has called for third party mediation in his so-called heroes' day speech.

The rebel leader's 25 minute speech has assumed the characteristics of a 'state of the nations' address, because many people — politicians, the world community, analysts, peace loving people and war mongers — are looking for some clues in it as to what his stand on the Eelam struggle is. While analysts try to read his lip or read between the lines vis-à-vis peace offers and the LTTE's commitment to a separate state, many a common man who believes the country is doomed is awakened by another glimmer of hope in the horizon when the mediation offer was made.

Having this common man's concern in mind, this article tries to see the merits of mediation, irrespective of the debate on the trustworthiness of Prabhakaran.

At the outset, it should be pointed out that the very idea of mediation has become so disputed a matter in the Sri Lankan ethnic conflict that the concept itself, it seems, needs a mediated settlement.

The government has taken a rigid stand, rejecting any offer for mediation by a third party on the grounds that it does not want outside intervention in the conflict.

But some analysts say the government does not want to internationalise the Sri Lankan conflict, for it fears such a move would force a settlement on Sri Lanka which would eventually be detrimental to its territorial and political integrity.

This is perhaps the reason why India, too, does not respond to Pakistan's call for international mediation in the Kashmir conflict. India, citing the Simla accord of 1972, says the Kashmir problem should be settled bilaterally.

But in the case of the Sri Lanka's internal conflict, there is no such agreement between the parties to the conflict - the government and the LTTE. Hence the need for mediation.

Obviously mediation has to be done by a third party, because parties to the conflict cannot become mediators. Thus the phrase 'third party' is redundant as an adjective to the word 'mediation'.

In a sense the government is right when it says mediation is intervention in the local conflict. But it must understand the spirit of mediation, which is a form of third party intervention in a conflict with the purpose of contributing to its reduction or resolving through talks between adversaries. Mediation is a process in which the mediator has no interest in the disputed matter.

Mediation also differs from intervention. It does not involve the use of force — military, economic or otherwise. Unlike intervention, mediation is not aimed at helping one-party to win. It creates a win-win situation and is concerned with helping the parties change their attitudinal positions through negotiations.

Mediation is also warranted in a stalemate political conflict such as Sri Lanka's where the parties are unable to reach an agreement.

Orang Young, a top international relations expert has defined mediation as any action taken by an actor who is not a direct party to the crisis and who is resigned to reduce or remove one or more of the problems of the bargaining relationship. Therefore, Young says, mediation facilitate the termination of the crisis itself.

But the government's reluctance to accept mediation offers is also understood. First of all, it is faced with a question relating to trust — can the LTTE be trusted?

Every time the rebel group was trusted and talks were entered into, it reneged on this trust and unleashed its recouped military might on the government and innocent people. Thus going into any peace talks with the LTTE offers no guarantee that the rebels would not resort to their reneging tactics again. In the light of this, it is natural for the government to adopt a cautious method in spite of calls from all quarters to respond to the LTTE's offer.

But the government should not also forget that mediation does bring results. A cursory glance at recent world events would show that it was mediation that has ended violence in many a world trouble spot. If the government is not willing to accept mediation, it can try out a facilitator, who unlike a mediator does not directly participate in the talks between adversaries but helps them come to the negotiating table.

The UN played such a role in Cambodia where the old dispute has now shed its violent nature and assumed democratic characteristics. Norway played a facilitator role in the talks between the Palestinian Liberation Organisation and Israel. It should be noted that since the PLO- Israel accord in Washington in 1994, Palestinian groups, except Hamas, have desisted from violence.

Former US senator George Mitchelle played a significance facilitator cum mediator role in the Northern Ireland peace settlement. The spirit of all these examples could be emulated here for a solution acceptable to all parties.

There is also another side to government's fear in outside mediation. Conscious of its regained image as a country concerned with human rights, Sri Lanka would be exposed if the real situation in the north is brought to light. Press censorship, highly militarized zones in the government controlled areas and dictatorship in LTTE-controlled areas in the north, prevent the tears of tens of thousands of war-affected people from flowing to the hearts of war prosecutors in Colombo and the Wanni jungles.

A Sinhala friend who visited Vavuniya camps for the displaced recently told me how terrible life there was. They are suffering and paying for the policy blunders of politicians of the both sides of the divide.

The description of life in these camps if highlighted by the media would no doubt create an international outrage against the government, though the LTTE is also equally responsible for their plight and the plight of those who live in the so-called areas under rebel control. Scenes of these camps would make the international community give the Sri Lankan crisis similar attention it gave to the conflict in Bosnia.

But like every dark cloud has a silver lining, such international pressure would bring parties to the conflict towards a settlement. The question then arises is whether this settlement would be just and acceptable to all.

To prevent Sri Lanka from plunging into ruination, the PA government, which has claimed it is committed to a peaceful settlement, should respond positively to the third party offer for the sake of peace and peace alone. A well calculated move can also put the LTTE in a peace trap.

Notwithstanding its rhetoric of war for peace and the LTTE's political infidelity, the government must give peace a chance again and again whatever form the opportunities come — through mediation, through facilitators or through internationalisation. Then we can go to bed today, dreaming of a better tomorrow.

'For goodness' sake learn or depart'

Before I write anything this week, I must apologise to my readers in The Sunday Times for my absence last Sunday. I am sure my erstwhile friend, Paakshikaya must have heaved a sigh of relief though I dare say I myself feel that absence made the heart grow fonder!

I think I owe an explanation at least to the readers who I'm told were wondering whether "government pressure" forced an abrupt halt to my column.

What really happened was that I had the flu and a mild diarrhoea. Now, even though Paakshikaya's worthy Health Minister Nimal Siripala is saying that cholera is under control - just as much as Anuruddha Ratwatte is saying terrorism is under control - I took no chances and entered a private hospital; hence my absence.

I got well - maybe that would have happened anyway but I must say I'm still suffering from the major effects of the hospital bill after I found that they have added GST even on my bed tea and the TV in my room! No wonder, Paakshikaya that your President said the PA government has done in four years what the UNP couldn't do in seventeen!

When I returned home I had to go searching for my old copies of The Sunday Times to see what Paakshikaya had last penned. It was so insignificant that I had already forgotten all about it until The Sunday Times Sub-Editor called me this week. But, Paakshikaya, I assure you I am not suffering from amnesia.

Paakshikaya, a fortnight ago seemed to have gone off at a tangent attacking some of our party men. It was so sickening that I probably fell sick as a result.

My friend goes on and on, meandering about the Budget, then to the President's remarks on the Tamils which he dismisses flippantly as a storm in a tea cup. Then he concludes by wishing me "Many Happy Years in the Opposition" and "Be Viruddha Paakshikaya Forever" saying that Provincial Elections are due and that the UNP will learn a bitter lesson then.

Well, that's a good starting point for my reply to Paakshikaya - Provincial Elections. I wonder if we might call it a provincial war. It is as if this country has not had enough of war and violence on the soil of the North and East, soaked with the blood of Sinhalese and Tamils and even Muslims Now, we are getting ready for War in Wayamba.

The government, having tried a fast one to postpone the Provincial Council Elections on account of the war with the LTTE being at a "decisive stage" and having got thrashed at Kilinochchi and with President Chandrika Kumaratunga virtually stripping her General Napoleon (champagne) Bone-part of Sri Lanka and now the Supreme Court ruling that the government's bid to postpone elections is unconstitutional, the PA has no alternative but to face the wrath of the people. Yes, Paakshikaya, judgement day is nigh.

You may talk big, act big and write big in The Sunday Times which, by the way, according to the President is not an impartial newspaper but just the Opposition Leader's uncle's newspaper - but you will soon be humbled by the mighty voter.

You have both by commission and omission raised prices to unbearable levels, you have jobs only in the army and nobody wants them because they never know when Kilinochchi will repeat itself somewhere else while you talk of "decisive moments" and go about riding horses. Your BOI projects are limited to paper projects and your financial management is in chaos. Your President says she works all day and all night and is "seen" to go through the minute details of the Budget which she must have prepared so painstakingly, while her "kokatath thailaya" Deputy G.L. Peiris only gets to read it in Parliament.

Now, why I say your financial management is in chaos is because, even after all those hours of burning the midnight oil perhaps much more than she ever did at Sorbonne - your President didn't know that her tax commissioners had issued circulars trying to get secret information on whose accounts they wanted to pounce on. Then, true to form, she sees a UNPer behind every bush and accuses the Lankadeepa and The Sunday Times (which published the story accurately) of trying to sabotage the economy.. Paakshikaya, what would she have done if there was no UNP to take the blame?

But now you have been forced into the fray and the North Western Province (NWP) is going to be where you will have to explain to the people what you have been doing for the past four years, other than fiddling with tenders, selling AirLanka to the Emirates, and buying trains which have ship engines.

You will also have to explain Paakshikaya, why you blame the teachers for all the educational lapses in the country (while sending your children overseas), the GMOA for all the problems in the hospitals, the private bus operators for the horrible transport services, the media for writing all the bad news, the Judges for giving judgements against your government, the deserters for running away from the army, Kumar Ponnambalam for LTTE activities in Colombo and finally the UNP for all these faults and even more!

Yes, on the positive side you can tell the people of Wayamba how fortunate and happy they must be, compared to what other countries in South East Asia are undergoing and how the IMF and the World Bank is happy with your handling of the economy - that too personally by the President herself! You could also tell the people how you have brought down the prices of Benz, Volvo and BMW cars and how, if not for the UNP, the onion and potato farmers will be better off because, after all, it was the UNP that liberalised the economy and created unfair competition for these farmers!

Paakshikaya, we have received information at Sri Kotha, our Party Headquarters on how you are preparing to face Provincial Council Elections. A Cabinet Minister, two Deputy Ministers and several MPs have been earmarked for each electorate in the North Western Province.

We will now find Volvos parked outside every hut in the North Western Province. You are already stocking guns, bombs and knives in the area. Signals are going out to the Police to either take long leave or turn a blind eye. Underworld thugs you are protecting and their "side-supporters" are being canvassed and are preparing to flex their muscles.

This is how you intend to conduct your campaign. And, come election day, the polling booths and ballot boxes will be targeted because, Paakshikaya you know a free and fair election is going to see the PA being resoundingly thrashed.

Why are you so reluctant, Paakshikaya, to appoint an Independent Police Commission and an Independent Elections Commission? Is it because you want a dependent Police and a dependent Elections Department that can be browbeaten and conduct what might end up as a sham poll and only to write a report about what happened six months later.

You have put people called "Thalagoyas" (for good reason, we presume) in charge of some electorates despite having some forty charges against him, so, the "Thalagoyas" will play a major part in this upcoming election on behalf of the PA, despite your party still talking about decency in public life! But, Paakshikaya, remember, we are ready.

Then, we also hear of other strategies being worked out at Temple Trees, Paakshikaya. That is that all this talk of Provincial Council Elections and Thalagoyas being a red-herring. President Kumaratunga, we note is touring the country by helicopter and speaking to "captive" audiences at "district conventions" of the SLFP - not the PA, mind you.

What we hear is that she maybe preparing for a Presidential Election instead of a Provincial Council poll because she knows only too well that her popularity is waning by the day!That may be why she asked her MPs at her Parliamentary group meeting how they can win the Wayamba elections, and ex Chief Minister Nawinna held forth on his startegy to win. But it shows that even CBK has her doubts.

But Paakshikaya, mark my words, our leader is ready for that too. Our Party is ready for that. In fact, we would prefer that because unlike in a Provincial Council Election, we could expect the Police to be more impartial in a Presidential Election because it is a "Winner-takes-it-all" election and the government will fall with it. Now, you know Paakshikaya, that your PA is split down the middle. The SLMC and the CWC are to go it alone. They see the winds of change faster than most of us. They will always be with the side that has the majority. And remember, Paakshikaya, after seventeen years of power and after admittedly our worst days, you barely pipped us at the post in August '94.

But, if it is not a Presidential Election, then Wayamba it shall be. All these debating points you try to score, Paakshikaya, will be met firmly, fairly and squarely, I hope, come the New Year.

In that last column, Paakshikaya says he doesn't know whether I'm a Thomian or not, but wishes me with the Thomian motto. I don't intend revealing my identity, my friend, though I did go to a 'good' school. What more can I tell him, except to say that I don't know whether he is a Royalist or not, but I would recommend to give Paakshikaya - and his government -the Royal motto: Disce Aut Discede - for goodness sake, "Learn or Depart"!

And, I assure you, Paakshikaya, your government will "Learn" at Wayamba and "Depart" at the next Presidential Election!

So, on to the battlefields of Wayamba where Paakshikaya, you and your beloved leaders will meet their Waterloo.

Return to News/Comments Contents