Commentary

14th February 1999

Kosovo: Farewell to Tito

By Mervyn de Silva

Conflict and Conflict Resolution have ac quired such a respectability that C.R. is now a popular pursuit among diplomats. Political leaders and their advisers take the vocation quite seriously too. After all "Conflict Resolution" even has a "toolkit" of its own. And why not? Conflict is a direct threat to peace and stability. And ethnic conflict does not respect recognised national borders. Ethnic identity has a stronger pull more than the State or government, popularly elected or not. And so ethnic loyalty, race or religion, has a stronger claim on an individual or group. Caste is quite a force in India, the world's largest democracy, and its presence is strongly felt in other parts of what is still introduced as "the Indian sub-continent."

Jusuf Wanandi, director for many years of the Centre of Strategic Studies in Djakarta recognises "development" too as one of the causes. Development creates an "explosion of demands, over consumption and inequalities in the distribution of income. To some extent, these are inherent in the development strategy adopted, namely, the adoption of open economies relying on market mechanisms.... But the unity of the nation and the state becomes a problem because of history".

What is crucial to the discussion of causes and solutions is that "identity" (ethnic identity) proves to be a far more strong force of mobilising. Yes, identity has replaced ideology, the main source of conflict during the Cold War. And so to Kosovo, minus Titoism or Marxism Leninism.

It is the intervention of neighbours, major powers, that makes the next contribution, Sri Lanka, India, Serbia and Yugoslovia.

N.A.M. has no standing army to intervene forcefully in a violent, destructive conflict that seriously affects a member-nation. Why not the sole superpower? President Clinton has problems of his own. And so NATO. Wouldn't Russia, one of the permanent members of the Security Council have the capacity for intervention militarily? Yes, but Moscow is in deep trouble. The Communists and the Nationalists can command a majority in the DUMA, and it is aggressively anti-American. Nobody knows that better than Yevgeny Primakov, the former roving correspondent of TASS.

And so we watch the benign intervention of NATO which has the muscle. Yet it was the western "Contact Group" that took the initiative - Britain, France, Germany and Italy, the 'big four' that made the move..... military muscle (NATO) and diplomatic pressure (the E.U.). This intervention certainly impresses the student of the post-Cold War world and the changing global power-structure. At the Security Council, the U.S. would need a non-hostile China.

The Western powers applied pressure on the Albanians as well as on the Serb side in the Kosovo conflict. That was a necessary gesture - an initial move, to demonstrate that the Contact Group was even-handed in its basic approach, necessary evidence of even-handedness. In all this, the most assertive actor of course was trouble-shooter Chris Hill. His first task was to persuade the Albanian leadership in Kristina that the Albanian reaction had a clear message,.... "We cannot go on and on..." The reaction impressed Chris Hill. "I think we are heading to a situation where we have to come up with some very good ideas and to see some rapid implementation".

In short, the mediator with the full support of the international community, had to deliver. What was the offer and was it enough?

What was the plan, and how did the two sides interpret it? Was the concession even-handed?

It was the western press that offered an answer to both sides and of course influenced international opinion - certainly European opinion. According to the documents which were freely circulated by the news agencies and the major newspapers, the draft Kosovo peace agreement, "effectively removed the Serbian government's authority over the province. Autonomy for Kosova.

The negotiating team has clearly declared that the authority to appoint and remove important personnel - the judiciary and administration was vested in the international monitoring mission. And that mission is run by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation which will also run future elections, at least for the first polls and set up its own broadcasting network. The Serb leadership, has been denied any say in the Radio and TV, confirming once more the vital importance of the communications media in ethnic conflict and conflict-resolution.

Who will control the "peace-keeping force (KPF?). Is it the U.N? No. NATO, and NATO is run by the U.S., U.K. and other allies.

That is now the vital question which agitates the Serb leadership. The I.P.K.F. came to Sri Lanka on an agreement between the elected administration of India (the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress government) and the popularly elected administration in Colombo.

The media is rejected by the Serbs as partisan, heavily biased against the Serbs, who a decade ago would have certainly relied on a Russian-dominated Soviet Union. The Soviet implosion has lost the Serbs a friend. Russia? No. Not under an ailing Boris Yeltsin. One looked forward to a reaction from Prime Minister Primakov. But no.

The death of King Hussein of Jordan will be discussed next week.

Hulftsdorp Hill

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