From the Blue Corner

I hate to say I told you so!

By: Paakshikaya

The two much awaited events in the Sri Lankan calendar in April- the New Year and the Provincial Council elections- are both over. But as the dust settles on these happenings and we, attempt to resume our normal lives this week, I cannot but help being a satisfied person.

That is because I had occasion to challenge my unseen friend, Viruddha Paakshikaya a fortnight ago, on the eve of the Provincial Council polls and make a few daring but well calculated predictions.

I hate to be one of those people who say, "I told you so" after the event but in this instance I feel I must remind Viruddha Paakshikaya - and our Sunday Times readers- of what I said that day. And then, I feel I must also remind my friend of what predictions he himself made that Sunday.

At the outset, I made bold to say that our President Chandrika Kumaratunga would allow a free and fair poll. Then, I also dared to say that the Peoples' Alliance would win all five provinces. And finally I did also say that the JVP would win just over five per cent of the vote!

What has happened since that day is history now, and even you, Viruddha Paakshikaya, would agree that all of these predictions have turned out to be true. But, to be fair I will not claim to be a political genius by virtue of having made these predictions- I did so by just common sense and in that column I did explain at length the basis of these predictions.

Now, what did my friend Viruddha Paakshikaya do meanwhile? He predicted that Karu Jayasuriya would win the highest number of preference votes in the country and went on to say that the UNP would win all five provinces!

Viruddha Paakshikaya was dead right in his first forecast but equally wrong in his second prophecy. Why I am recalling this here is because it highlights an important difference between our two parties, my friend.

That difference, Viruddha Paakshikaya is that we know our strengths and weaknesses, how we can exploit the former and compensate for the latter. We knew, for instance that the North Central Province would be a walkover for us. We also knew we would have a tough battle on our hands in the Western Province and that we would have to maximize our votes from the Gampaha District if we were to win that province.

Knowing these all-important facts, Viruddha Paakshikaya we were able to adjust our campaigning strategies to match these strengths. But what did you say, my friend? I know you must have been resorting to rhetoric when you said that you would win all five provinces but you did also say that the Western and Central provinces would be a "walk-over" for the UNP, given a free and fair poll and that reflects your grandiose thinking!

I know you might turn around and scoff at these arguments and say this was not a great victory for the PA. I will be the first to agree. But, if it was not a great victory for the PA, my friend, what was it for the UNP? Was it not a bigger defeat for your party?

You and your party leaders may say that you "won" in so many "electorates". Statistically I concede that is true. But do not forget for all practical purposes and thanks to the political genius of a man named J.R.Jayewardene these electorates are non-existent now.

What exists instead is a District system of electing members- be it for Provincial Councils or for Parliament- and what matters is how many members a party can elect from each district. On that score, Viruddha Paakshikaya, the PA has consistently out-performed the UNP and any amount of statistical wizardry cannot cover-up that!

Then again, we have these statistical wizards of your party arguing that the percentage of votes received by the UNP has increased. Again, I agree, Viruddha Paakshikaya. But what you should really take into account is the real number of votes and then you will realize that your vote base has declined.

What happened was that the voter turnout was low at this election- hence the "higher percentage" obtained by the UNP! So, remember my friend that after four years in the Opposition your party has no increase in the real number of votes it received to boast about!

Then, when I read the newspapers I see many highlighting the fact that constituencies nursed by our ministers opting for the UNP. That is true. Especially in the Colombo District. But, do these "constituencies" really matter, Viruddha Paakshikaya?

As I explained before, they are non-existent now. Under the Proportional Representation system what matters is the number of preferences a candidate obtains from a particular district. As far as these ministers are concerned, they are now nationally known figures and they would anyway get the required preferences from their districts and get elected, so long as the party gets enough votes to elect a sufficient number of members from a particular district.

So, does it really matter that Anuruddha Ratwatte has lost Wattegama or that Ratnasiri Wickremanayake has lost Horana? I think not, Viruddha Paakshikaya and I'm sure our ministers will be the first to realise that.

But on the same issue I like to ask you what has happened to your leaders in their -of course non-existent- electorates? Ranil Wickremasinghe's Biyagama was won by the PA and so was Nivithigala nursed by your General Secretary, Gamini Atukorale. Now don't tell me that Ranil Wickremasinghe is no longer at Biyagama and that he has "switched" to the Colombo District because that is the best admission of your party leader's failure to secure his own seat!

Then, much has been made about the JVP's so-called "resurgence" at this poll. I agree theirs was a creditable performance and that all attempts must be made to give them their due place if only to wean them away from the gun culture.

Some have gone to the extent of calling them a "Third Force". But I for one will reserve my judgment on that. As far as the number of votes are concerned the Third Force is not the JVP but the "Spoilt Votes"-The JVP polled over 200,000 votes but the spoilt votes amounted to over 300,000!

That does send an important message not only to the Government but also to the Opposition, Viruddha Paakshikaya. My point is that it is perfectly in order for the people not to be fully satisfied with a Government, however sincere its leadership may be, after four and a half years in office. But this satisfaction should be proportional to its expectations of the opposition, in this case the UNP.

But what has happened now is that while many may not agree with what the Government has achieved for them over the past few years they agree even less with what the Opposition hopes to do for them in the future. So, they walk to the polling booth- and save for 5% of them who opt for the JVP- the others cross out the ballot paper and express their disappointment.

This is what you and your party should be concerned about, Viruddha Paakshikaya instead of crying "Victory for the UNP" when there is nothing of that sort! The bottomline is that the PA has gained control of all five provinces and the UNP has none and that is what will happen in the event of a General Election too. Then, will any purpose be served by proudly stating that the UNP has "won" "Horana", "Wattegama" or "Borella"?

Now, you are bound to say that the PA won only the North Central Province and that it emerged only as the single largest party in the other provinces. Maybe you could also claim that the UNP could, with the connivance of the other parties, "topple" any of the other four administrations.

Theoretically, you would be right, Viruddha Paakshikaya. But ask yourself whether it is a practical option. Do you really have the support of the minority parties for such a course of action? The real answer is, of course, no.

We in the PA all know who Thondaman is and who Ashraff is, Viruddha Paakshikaya. Among your leaders J.R.Jayewardene knew very well who Thondaman was and what he was capable of, so he treated him with due consideration or, as they say in Sinhalese- "Kappanna Beri Atha Imbinawa Wagei"-kissing the hand you cannot cut!

Even Premadasa, who was brash at times in his political decision making was careful not to antagonise Thondaman and he also treated Ashraff with kid gloves- though he was a political infant at that time.

But what do you do now? You make statements about "going it alone, come what may" and then try to upstage Thondaman by defeating his Ministry's votes in Parliament. As for Ashraff you take pains to sponsor motions of no confidence against him over tenders for the Galle Port. And then, you expect them to vote with you to topple the PA out of office in the provincial administrations! Had the Grand Master, JRJ been alive to see such miserable tactics, Viruddha Paakshikaya, he would hate to call your leaders his proteges!

Then, Viruddha Paakshikaya, there is the question of a Presidential Election which we all know has to be held by the end of next year. I am sure those in the UNP with their peculiar brand of logic are now elated with the fact that the PA obtained only 45% of the vote at this poll and therefore will never win a Presidential election.

As I see it, Viruddha Paakshikaya, that argument is absurd when you consider the electoral and political realities. A significant proportion of votes at this month's election went to the Thondaman camp and when it comes to a Presidential Election there will never be a candidate from that quarter- and I can bet my last rupee that Saumyamoorthy Thondaman will endorse the candidacy of President Chandrika Kumaratunga. The same logic holds true for other votes that went against the PA to smaller left-of-center parties. Many of them will not contest knowing that unlike in Provincial poll, their candidate will not get elected in a Presidential election. Even if they do contest, voters will not opt for them knowing it is not a seriously viable option. And, Viruddha Paakshikaya, you know as much as I do that the votes of these parties will never accrue to the right-of-center UNP!

And then, most of what could happen at a Presidential Election depends also on who your Presidential candidate is Viruddha Paakshikaya. Now, I can confidently say that the Peoples' Alliance candidate is President Chandrika Kumaratunga. I challenge you, Viruddha Paakshikaya, can you with similar assurance say your candidate is Ranil Wickremasinghe?

Now, don't get me wrong. I am not in anyway trying to cause divisions within your party- you are doing it quite well without my help. But isn't it a fact that many feel someone else- and I don't want to mention any names- could be a better candidate to take on the charisma and charm of President Chandrika Kumaratunga. I do remember your late leader J.R. Jayewardene once telling me that when it comes to elections you have to cast aside all other considerations and nominate the candidate who you thought had the best chance of winning the election. That was his one and only criteria when he decided on candidates and I also know that is why he wanted R.Premadasa and not Gamini Dissanayake or Lalith Athulathmudali as the UNP's Presidential candidate in 1989 even though he had reservations about what Premadasa would do as President of the country.

After all, we do remember what happened in 1994, don't we? After Gamini Dissanayake- and there was a man, if any, who could match Chandrika Kumaratunga for charm and charisma-was killed in that dreadful bomb blast the UNP made a mess of the campaign by appointing his widow Srima as the candidate.

We in the PA knew we had won the election when the UNP announced Srima Dissanayake as your candidate.

With all due respect to that gracious lady, didn't we all know she was not the best candidate the UNP could muster? And the UNP did pay a heavy price conceding a 62% mandate to Chandrika Kumaratunga.

So, this time around, what would the UNP do, Viruddha Paakshikaya? I challenge you to decide on your Presidential candidate not now, but at least by the end of this year and I have a hunch that even that deadline may not be met!

And that is why, Viruddha Paakshikaya, you should now quit thinking about the so-called "UNP victory" at the April 6 elections and try to salvage something so you could give the PA a decent fight at next year's, General and Presidential elections.

Believe me, these elections will be held on schedule-there will be no referendums!- and these elections also, like the poll which was just concluded, would be free and fair, just as I predicted they would be.

And if I were to venture one last prediction, Viruddha Paakshikaya, don't bother about selecting your best candidates for the upcoming Southern Provincial Council poll- we will win that anyway, much in the same way we won North Central Province!

Minority votes and PC polls

By Kumbakarna

The last round of elec tions took place without violence and ballot-rigging on the scale that most people feared. The results are therefore worth considering.

While the PA lost ground in the Western Province, it made significant gains in the Central and Uva Provinces. The UNP, on the other hand, increased its vote in the WP.

On examining the results of past elections, it seems the less developed, rural interior of the country tends to vote with the Government in power, while 'change' originates in the urban areas and the western seaboard. This change in the political weather then blows into the interior at the next elections. In this sense, the results of these PC elections are rather ominous for the PA Government.

However, on examining these results at greater depth, it is apparent that both the PA and the UNP have failed to retain the votes they received in 1994. When taking into account the increase in the number of eligible voters at these elections, the PA has lost about 350,000 votes from what it received in 1994. The UNP has lost about 100,000. These voters have either not voted at all or deliberately cancelled their ballots, or else voted for the JVP and other parties. It would seem from these figures that the decline in popularity of the PA is steeper than that of the UNP.

The successful attack by the LTTE on Killinochchi last year was a serious political blow to the PA Govt. Subsequently, the PA muddied its own hands at the Wayamba PC elections. Many of its former allies, such as the NGO network, the media activists and the Catholic and Protestant churches turned against it.

A notable feature of these elections is the effect the minorities had on the results. In the Kalutara District, the Muslim and estate Tamil votes were mainly responsible for the PA's decline. This was particularly so in the Horana, Bulathsinhala, Agalawatte and Matugama electorates, where estate Tamils form a sizeable percentage. Although Thondaman's blatantly racist party did not receive much support from them, they dealt a significant blow against the PA's 'heavyweight' for the area, the Minister of Plantation Industries. This can be construed as organised opposition to the minister's efforts at distributing land among the Sinhalese people of the area. Although the Muslim Congress won few votes while contesting by itself in Kalutara, this campaign also contributed in some measure towards the weakening of the PA.

In the Colombo District, Thondaman's racist slogans and the New Left Front's support for Tamil racism did not attract a large number of votes.

Another significant fact is that Colombo East, which the PA won comfortably in 1994 before the 'devolution package' had been presented, became a humiliating defeat this time after it was handed over to the architect of the 'package' . With the PA getting less than 44% of the total vote in the election as a whole, it will be interesting to see how the good Professor splits hairs this time to 'prove' that a majority of the people support his 'package'.

Perhaps the most significant trends are those to emerge from the central highlands. One of these is the erosion of support for the UNP among the minorities. The other is Thondaman's performance.

One of Thondaman's constant boasts has proved to be hollow.

Having repeatedly claimed he controls a million votes, he contested for the first time on his own, under the name of the National Union of Workers. What he actually got was about 100,000 votes in the Central Province, and a further 50,000 or so from the other provinces. This is in comparison to the 320,000 he got last time, and in terms of seats his tally has dropped from 17 to 9.

While, on the face of it, this would seem to indicate a decline in support for Thondaman, the reality is somewhat more complex. Through the blatantly racist campaign he has launched, he has succeeded in detaching the estate Tamil people from the PA and the UNP. Concurrently, the factions within the community which were opposed to Thondaman have virtually disintegrated. This has enabled Thondaman to establish the political cover for the 'second front' which the LTTE will inevitably open in the hill country.

The greed for power of those who granted citizenship in 1988 to an additional 300,000 people of Indian origin, against the terms of the Sirima-Shastri pact, is responsible for the situation in the hill country today. It is their desire to remain in power for six more years, at any cost, for which the Sinhalese villagers who live in the central hills are now paying the price. When the Tamils who have migrated to the Western Province within the past four years become a political force, the Sinhalese people there will suffer the same fate.

The ultimate result of the increasing strength of the Tamil communal bloc vote is a corresponding decline in the political will to oppose the separatist agenda. In the months ahead, we will see the PA Government making more and more concessions to these forces, in an increasingly desperate struggle for political survival.

Right of reply

All the political forces in Sri Lanka which rallied round to deprive the Indian Tamil people of their franchise in 1948 and who resisted the grant of citizenship to them for over 40 years thereafter are today rallying together once again to split the newly won Indian Tamil vote into different political parties and thereby deprive them of the benefits of collective strength and representation. These forces are fully aware that if the Indian Tamil vote is split the political clout of the Indian Tamils and the CWC would decline. With this in mind sections of the press have been writing pages after pages, articles after articles, even editorials attempting to undermine the Ceylon Workers Congress and its leader Thondaman in their role in alleviating the living conditions of the Indian Tamil population in general and the Plantation Workers in particular.

The latest addition to this vicious squad which has been campaigning to make the Tamil vote outside the North and East impotent by splitting it appears to be The Sunday Times columnist "Taraki". His analysis on Sunday April 11, begins with the CWC's present nine MPs in Parliament currently "constituting Mr. S. Thondaman's bargaining chip", ends with "three CWC M.Ps at most in the next Parliament". To top it, his last sentence reads "talk about Thonda being a Kingmaker with three MPs or even less". It is not the number that counts but the quality of the MP's. There was only one single MP, CWC President Thondaman representing the community from 1977 to 1989 in Parliament. His achievements during that period are part of the history of this country and needs no trumpet blowing.

Whilst allowing "Taraki" and his friends to daydream of breaking the solidarity of the Indian Tamil votes and thereby making them lose their collective strength, may I remind them that the CWC is not only a political party but it has to it's credit the largest workers organisation in the country whose trade union strength had withstood all challenges and asserted our rights for over half a century.

There are no permanent friends and permanent enemies in politics, only permanent interests. Our strategy is based on political alliances which would give the best benefit to our people and preserve the rule of law and democracy in the country.

R.Yogarajan, MP
Chief Organiser/CWC Colombo

Taraki replies:
These are Mr. Yogarajan's views. There is nothing in my column he has refuted. I stand by what I said.

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