Commentary

9th May 1999

NATO in conflict resolution

By Mervyn de Silva

Frances Fukuyama wrote of "The end of history and the last Man". Last year the boss of the Federal Reserve System chose to share his discovery that the US economy has gone beyond history. But let us dwell on present history, on Asia especially, that's where the people are the people who make history, and Asia a vast concourse.

The economy, stupid home-spun wisdom from the great people who made America, now known as the sole superpower, in plain English, no simple American but No.1 the sole superpower.

And thus to the international affairs - strategic studies pundits, a unipolar world, no more bipolar when Lenin and Stalin's Russia was the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics USSR until the implosion, Gorbachev - Yeltsin. The unity of the United States held, the Soviet Union imploded. Disunion - the United States survived, despite the Blacks, their great revolt, which has by no menas ended, not at all.

After NATO's great "victory" in Yugoslavia. Tito's non-aligned Yugoslavia and the chaos in Lenin-and-Stalin; Soviet Union, its communist allies (satellites in the American agit-prop of the Cold War) chose to go their way, each its way.

Asian century

What next? In the millennium that awaits us, it will be Asia's turn again, the ancient civilisations will assert their reserve strength, drawing on their inexhaustible energy - China and India, with the new generation Japanese, not only with its advance techonology and salesmanship.

As early as 1978, the National Institute for the Advancement of Research (NIRA) called for the comprehensive and varied responses to national security threats, according to the nature of threats i.e. political, economic and military. That approach was endorsed in a 1980 report prepared by a task force appointed by Minister Masayishi Ohira. It postulated three levels of national security measures for Japan (i) self-help or self-defence (ii) efforts to render the international system conducive to Japan's security and (iii) intermediate-level efforts to build a favourable environment.

This three-level approach has since become official policy, and enjoys wide public support.

In the first postwar period Japan's policy had declared its aims in the Yoshida Doctrine. It allowed Japan to remain in the political strategic American system. With the gradual demise of that US -centred hegemonic international system, Japan was forced to re-assess its passive insular foreign policy. The collapse of the Breton Woods system and the US-China rapproachment, and the American defeat in the Vietnam war, the oil crises exposed Tokyo's vulnerability.

The Twins

NATO is not Washington's only powerful weapon, the IMF and World Bank are more effective weapons.

Japan's strongest instruments are aid and investment but increasingly it has involved itself in armed conflicts. Japan takes third place after US and Russia. Japan is the only UN member from this region to participate in Good Offices in Afghanistan and Pakistan. It has supported the missions which were sent by UN to Lebanon, Namibia and Palestine (Israel).

It is in the fields of aid and investment that Tokyo has the capacity to assume a vital role but for this SAARC can learn from other conflict torn Third World States rather than those rich countries that have strings to there aid policies.

"Human Rights."

European donors have their own conditions strictly defined; human rights, plainly an instrument to interfere in domesttic politics. Last week we were introduced to the EURO. Yes, money talks. But Japan, China and India are "giants" in terms of consumer consumption, though the potential customer may be poor - for now.

Jungle Telegraph

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