Presidency

The issue is polls - not abolition of precidency

When President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga chose to address the nation on Wednesday, October 20, the decision had the hallmark of her five year term of office — another sudden, impulsive decision with little preparation and planning almost amounting to one more knee-jerk reaction to a crisis.

It was not that a presidential poll was unexpected. An election, general or presidential is due by August next year and the latter has to be held by November 2000, the latest. But even so, Ms. Kumaratunga's most decisive address to the nation was sudden and caught many in her own government unawares.

Remember, this is a President who gives weeks of advance publicity about live phone-in programmes and satellite-linked talk shows. But last Wednesday even the state-controlled press struggled to get a complete text of her speech and as a result, the next day's newspapers did not carry the presidential address in toto. If it was the surprise element that Ms. Kumaratunga wanted, she had succeeded well. And for once she had beaten her cabinet ministers in leaking a story!

Even so, no one is really surprised. Whatever her faults Ms. Kumaratunga has learnt from recent history that six years are a long time and that Presidents who stay in office for that long become very, very unpopular. Why, even the Machiavellian J. R. Jayewardene opted for re — election five years from his first electoral victory and only four years after assuming duties as executive president.

In essence then, what this decision is — calling for polls over a year before one is due — is an acknowledgement of political realities of her tenure: she must realize that her popularity is on the wane with no victory to boast of in the North and East, no major economic rally, and with cracks appearing in the fragile coalition that calls itself the Peoples' Alliance. Early elections, while the opposition is relatively unprepared are decidedly better for the President while to wait for a reversal of fortunes would be tantamount to political suicide.

But for the discerning observer, the whiff of an election was always there. There was a mass rally — almost Premadasa style — in Colombo to celebrate the PA's fifth anniversary in office and then the floats used there were dispatched to remote electorates. PA parliamentarians were asked not to leave the country until December. A desperate and abortive attempt was made to woo the minorities with the Equal Opportunities Bill. The President herself cancelled her appearance at the Commonwealth Summit in Durban next month. So, when the final announcement came no one asked 'why now'? Instead, they asked 'why were we told in this way'?

There were of course the sceptics who believed Ms. Kumaratunga would do everything possible and more to hold on to the reins of power till the last possible moment. That was because they saw the irony of Kumaratunga — who solemnly promised to abolish the executive presidency as far back as July 15, 1995 — now coming forward as the PA's candidate for the same presidency for another term. But then, such ironies are lost on those engaged in their quest for power, surely.

The question is whether in the event President Kumaratunga is re-elected, her second term of office will begin only in 2001 — the balance period of this term being utilized, early polls notwithstanding. Such constitutional manoeuvres are of course nothing new, what with the UNP Working Committee deciding in 1988 unanimously that J. R. Jayewardene can run for a third term of office on the basis that he was not electorally elected — only mandated — as Executive President for his first term of office. Kumaratunga can of course more simply revert to the Westminster model and can get re-elected as Prime Minister ad nauseum!

The issue at stake here is not really the Executive Presidency but whether the Executive Presidency is now in fact an issue for the people at large. The Peoples Alliance — or at least a majority of those in the Alliance — says it cannot abolish the presidency because it lacks the support of the UNP. This is not the whole truth but only a fragile position of convenience because the UNP is on record stating it will support such abolition.

The UNP on the other hand is not too keen on abolishing the presidency itself because it realises it is the only party capable of forming a one-party government under the proportional representation system. Under such a system, retaining the presidency gives it near absolute power. The chances then are the UNP too would retain the presidency if it wins. Ironically, the DUNF — or what remains of it — founded on the principle of abolishing the presidency now supports the UNP! The JVP of course steadfastly opposes the presidency and so do other left-oriented parties. But then, they do not have the vote base to translate that opposition into action.

But for all these ideological differences it appears there is no real public cry against the presidency. It was indeed a crucial issue during the harsh rule of Ranasinghe Premadasa from 1989 to 1993 when Gamini Dissanayake and Lalith Athulathmudali took the question of the presidency to the people. Today, that absence of public anger will be a powerful motivating factor for any party to retain this all-powerful office. After all, if the price to pay for retaining the presidency is to tolerate an occasional protest opposite the Fort Railway Station, let it be so! And what's more, the Presidency also has the blessings of minority parties because it gives them some bargaining power between the two major contenders from the UNP and the SLFP.

In the upcoming poll itself it appears almost certain that neither President Kumaratunga nor her main rival, Opposition Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe will obtain the required 50% of the valid votes plus one vote more to win at first count. The JVP, the likely third party in the race will surely ask its voters specifically not to cast a second preference. On present trends, it may just be possible that President Kumaratunga will be re-elected on second count but not with the massive mandate which she received five years ago but perhaps with a wafer thin majority. In fact, it may not be a mandate at all for she would then be a minority — vote president.

In such a scenario, her political stature, authority and bargaining power will weaken considerably within the Peoples' Alliance and as the general election approaches more demands are likely to be made by the likes of the Minister Ashraff's Muslim Congress, Minister Thondaman's Ceylon Workers Congress, Douglas Devananda's EPDP and D. Siddharthan's PLOTE.

Besides any president — elect, whoever it is would have to deal with the new phenomenon of the JVP in the political mainstream with considerable bargaining power. Significantly if it is President Kumaratunga who is re-elected, as a president-elect on an unconvincing majority she will not be able to campaign for an enhanced majority for the SLFP alone at the general election — for the president would need the support of her coalition partners for her own survival!

Mr. Wickremesinghe by going it alone — sans the support of the Muslim Congress or the indefatigable Mr. Thondman's CWC — is a brave lad but may in real politik turn out to be not the wisest lad and fortune may not favour the brave after all.

The edge the UNP does have over the SLFP (or the PA) is that it has a better team of persons more experienced in governance. But then, that does not count much in a one-to-one presidential race which is not a team game: voters seldom think of who will have the better cabinet. Instead, they ask themselves who will be the better leader. It is then — with absolutely no disrespect to Mr. Wickremesinghe — that the charm, the smile and the easy manner all count.

Dr. Rajiva Wijesinha head of the Liberal Party once wrote that the people of Sri Lanka are like those who lived in Europe a century ago who distinguished between the Cavaliers who were "wrong but romantic" and the Roundheads who were "right but repulsive" — and that appears to be the principal difference between the PA and the UNP. The UNP is clinically and ruthlessly efficient whether doing good or bad and the PA is lethargic and slovenly again, whether doing good or bad! Indeed, Rajiva Wijesinha is probably right.

Basically, then the likely outcome of all this is more of the same — regardless of whether the victor is Mr. Wickremesinghe or Ms. Kumaratunga: vis — à — vis the open economy, management of the war and the executive presidency and system of government.

Whoever assumes the reins of power, coalitions will be the order of the day. In India too — despite a Westminster system — coalition governments have come to stay but that country shows a different trend in that regional parties each hold sway in their respective areas, diluting power wielded by the center. In Sri Lanka however larger parties will have to sing to the tune of the smaller parties which unfortunately are not regional but ethnically denominated. Therefore the first polls in the new millennium must necessarily see the emergence of ethnic politics — probably on a scale never seen in this country before.

The fact is that for the past five years Ms. Kumaratunga's stewardship of the ship of state has not been commendable. On the other hand, Mr. Wickremesinghe's stewardship of the opposition has been by and large uneventful, save for a few last — resort protest campaigns launched recently.

It is ironical that despite an economy as stagnant as the Beira Lake in Colombo, a war that costs money and lives, a string of broken promises, a classic show of non-governance, hostility towards perceived political opponents and the media, snakes — and — ladder type of appointments in the armed forces, judiciary and in the ministries, the inability to check the ever rising cost of living and allegations of bribery and corruption at all levels Ms. Kumaratunga still has a good chance of scraping through at the next poll.

Given that the race will be tight one the Opposition fears a re-enactment of strategies used at the Wayamba provincial poll in January this year. Those fears are justified, especially so because on that occasion President Kumaratunga did express her reservations about what transpired but then did nothing to abolish the Council and have fresh elections. No doubt at the presidential poll there would be a bandwagon of monitors but so be it: they have a powerful role to play not in monitoring the elections itself but in being a significant deterrent to the local politician whose idea of loyalty to his political boss is to stuff a few ballot boxes whenever possible.

From all accounts then, the political atmosphere will be charged and the sparks and the rhetoric will be flying in the weeks to come. That is healthy for democracy but only if done in the proper manner.

But campaigners — who are now seasoned campaigners in the art of electioneering and the fine art of rigging — must be bracing themselves for a win-at-all-costs election. After all, the thought of losing the Presidency must be just too much to contemplate for the President as much as the thought of being confined to the opposition benches for another good six years is distressing for Mr. Wickremesinghe.

The Presidency — the all powerful Presidency which bestows on its incumbent the ability to do all but change a man into a lady — is now in the hands of a lady. That lady told the nation last Wednesday that she wishes yet another mandate to "…solve the vexed ethnic problem; throw away the present constitution and to march towards prosperity…"

The good lady's rival is likely to say much the same things in the days to come. But then, the issue for the millions of Sri Lankans marking that little cross on the ballot paper is that they seldom do what they say — and they seldom say what they do!

PARLIAMENT

Anura's pedigree match and no-ball deliveries

By Dilrukshi Handunnetti, Our Lobby Correspondent

Political dynasty counts, especially in this part of the world. Look at our south Asian neighbours — studded with examples of nepotism, pocket boroughs and traditional vote blocks, and you know it's true. A political reality too.

It could even decide one's fate, shape the future: the benefits being sufficient to overlook drawbacks. Perhaps UNP front liner Anura Bandaranaike also felt that the 'pedigree factor' was a decisive one.

But this he did at the expense of another member's dignity. Mr. Bandaranaike who generally steals the show with his fine deliveries, thought it appropriate to use a debate on the extradition act to flash one's ancestry and declare war. An angry Mr. Bandaranaike in his determination to have his say — misused pretty precious time allocated to deal with people's problems to settle a score with Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar.

Coughing slightly (perhaps blissfully unaware at the time of speaking about the proclamation calling for presidential polls), he was furious — outrageously so and didn't spare the foreign minister who was not present at that time.

There was indeed a hailstorm inside the House by the Diyawanna as shocked members on both sides sat in mute silence. But the illustrious son of late S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike opted to say little on explosives, terrorist attacks and absconding offenders — facts relevant to the debate — as he launched a zealous offensive.

The portly member explaining how he came to speak on that day said he had no intention to speak on the extradition bill, as he was busy preparing for the forthcoming budget debate.

But Mr. Kadirgamar's interview with The Sunday Times got him on the raw — and the busy schedule now thrust with the distinction of opening the budget debate for the opposition replacing the gently departed A.C.S. Hameed. And he seized this moment to squeeze the minister's sap out like in a lemon.

The two parliamentarians known to be at loggerheads have traded insults on occasion. The newspaper interview — where the MP was called a buffoon by the foreign minister — has triggered off the Bandaranaike fire and fury anew.

While an obviously embarrassed Deputy Chairman of Committees, Rauf Hakeem, sat looking slightly dazed, Mr. Bandaranaike accused the minister of having his wires crossed.

"There's a Sinhala saying about the fox that got entangled and could find no way out. The unfortunate predicament of this man hell bent on insulting me is no different," thundered he.

Immaculately clad in steel gray, the burly Bandaranaike, said Mr. Kadirgamar in his queer thinking had described him (Mr. Bandaranaike) as 'a person living in California and holidaying in Sri Lanka — which was explanatory of his removal from the political realities of his motherland.'

"To know all that, does he live under my bed?" he asked.

"I travel at my expense where as he stays in luxury hotels at the tax payers' expense," he charged. Unable to contain the fury within, he gave the House instead of extradition laws a first hand account of his political achievements and unparalleled lineage.

The comments obviously rankled, as the MP sought to inform the House on many aspects of his political career spanning two decades, during which, he also had to deal with a weak seven-member opposition against the mighty UNP led by a colossus President Jayewardene.

Those were the days when the turmoil and turbulence within the SLFP was tangible. A horrendous blow to democracy was delivered when Sirimavo Bandaranaike was stripped of her civic rights. When staunch UNPers opposed it, where was faithful Kadirgamar who never said a word in her defence, who is more SLFP than S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike today?

Though seething with anger, he recalled his Shakespeare and warned the SLFP to be aware of those with lean and hungry looks.

"Is he avoiding me Sir, or why isn't he here," he asked, pointing at the minister's empty chair.

But in came Mr. Kadirgamar as Mr. Bandaranaike said this great crusader of Tamil rights who couldn't even walk from Wellawatta to Bambalapitiya, had never been to Jaffna to see the suffering of his community and couldn't even get five Tamil votes.

Trumpeting his own cause, Bandaranaike jr. said the minister had criticised him for repeatedly flashing his distinguished pedigree unlike sister Chandrika — and was it wrong? He would flashed it anywhere anytime, from Iceland to New Zealand for the Bandaranaikes were known all over the world.

"I was the youngest leader of opposition in the region and has given my life blood to a splintered SLFP struggling to recover itself. Being so, I would flash my pedigree any time. Can Kadirgamar do it?"

Going a step further, he offered advice to the minister — having no pedigree worth talking about — to at least get a certificate from the Kennel Association!

Continuing the offensive, he remarked that it was the Bandaranaike name which assisted his sister Chandrika to successfully launch herself as a politician. Having become the first citizen of the country, there was no need for her to flash the prestigious name anymore.

Could other senior SLFPers with grand followings in their electorates vie for the highest position in the land? The Bandaranaikes, he proudly claimed, were recognized and the name certainly sold. It was a truism applicable to Benazir Bhutto and Sonia Gandhi too, he proudly announced.

Quoting Macbeth, he said there was a reference to that "life being but a walking shadow, a poor player that struts upon life's stage and then who are no more" which was aptly described Kadirgamar's life — a tale told by an idiot, all sound and fury but no substance.

As the minister who fired his cannons through newspapers, calling Mr. Bandaranaike a buffoon, sat quietly, Mr. Bandaranaike said how he took time off to refer the thesaurus where the word 'buffoon's many meanings were listed (comic, comedian, harlequin etc.), but the best way to describe Mr. Kadirgamar was to call him a prize joker — the best court jester at the Temple Trees.

In an insulting and personal finish and unworthy of a man of such rare distinction, he proposed that treaties be signed with Rwanda, Chechnya, Burundi and Kosovo to pack off the minister and his charming lady in an effort to save our foreign policy.

After this outburst, spoke PA's Dixon J. Perera who was in a reconciliatory mood. He attempted to smooth the ruffled feathers. Upholding the Bandaranaike foreign policy, he noted that petty squabbles divided the people and prevented them from working together for the common good.

On extradition, he opined that offenders had a fashionable and cultivated practice of seeking 'political asylum' when it was time to flee, leaving behind a stinking legacy of black money, crime, drug pedalling and arms dealing.

It was UNP's Henry Jayamaha who stuck to familiar grounds and departed from nepotistic claims and pedigree flashing in the House. Proposing that archaic extradition laws required amendments in keeping with international laws, he emphasized that laws needed to evolve in a bid to crack down on increasing levels of global crime.

And PA member H. R. Mithrapala who followed him rode his hobby horse — UNP bashing.

"There was a colloquial Sinhala reference to 'loka horu' for those who defied law as a practice. Did it bother UNP front liners?" he asked.

And up jumped UNP's Ariyaratna Walpitagama — Can they catch the Channel 9 offenders? And pat came the reply — What of Douglas Peiris who fled the country under UNP's patronage?

Having quietly weathered the storm, Minister Kadirgamar was his usual unruffled self, when he replied. Pinning faith on a negotiated settlement, he said that mediation was unacceptable though facilitation at the correct time was acceptable.

Dispelling doubts about his comments on UN intervention which sparked off debates here and abroad, the suave minister emphasized that the government stood for a negotiated settlement and desired talks with the LTTE.

"But this has been given strange twists. Given the acute state of hostility between the LTTE and our successive governments, negotiations required third party involvement in a clearly defined capacity," he said. "I shall not respond to Mr. Bandaranaike's remarks," he said, brushing the heap of insults aside.

The generally quiet DUNLF member, Kesaralal Gunasekera, perhaps expressed the sentiments of a majority calling for the condemnation of the snide and outrageous delivery — which he termed a 'delivery of disgrace' and a shame to his proud inheritance and distinguished parents.

Nobody doubted Mr. Bandaranaike's ancestry which is vastly respected, but ancestry, Mr. Gunasekera said, was not something for him to flash but for others to speak of.

"If you have petty scores to settle, do it elsewhere and not here. The government members sat in mute silence as he spoke not out of respect but with utter shame for having to listen to such."

Being relatively new and inexperienced, in addition to having no lineage to boast of, Mr. Gunasekera was in no position to advise Mr. Bandaranaike, except to request him to listen to his own recorded speech and to caution others never to emulate this Bandaranaike example.

But Mr. Gunasekera's well intended words are perhaps similar to pouring water on a duck's back with the debates hitting an all time low and the house, a mere talk shop and a forum for meaningless tirades and intolerable behaviour.

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