The dawn of the Asian millennium

By Kumbakarana

When the Sri Lankan media began to reckon the days to the new millennium, Arthur C. Clarke came forward to dispel the commercial illusion. The calendar of today has been done and re-done by various empires to suit their purposes. Therefore, celebrating the 31st of December is a bogus exercise. Arthur C. Clarke also points out that Europe has started counting from one and not from zero. Two thousand years from the birth of Christ should, therefore fall in the year 2001. This carries a philosophical message that Europe was not aware of the concept of zero. Nagarjunapada, a Buddhist philosopher, was the originator of the concept of zero.

It is also opportune to consider the second millennium. The Christians celebrated the arrival of the second millennium, in the year 1000, by going in search of Christ's birth place. They had clashes with a new religion (Islam) which was founded three centuries earlier. The consequence of this were the Crusades (holy wars) which were fought for centuries. Europe acquired from Arabia the knowledge of new weapons, commerce, romanticism, and the legend of Asia (India and China). This past millennium saw the conflicts and mergers of civilizations; the birth and subjugation of nations; and the emergence and downfall of empires. As such, the second millennium was the Christian pilgrimage.

The 20th century brought about many changes in human history. The entire world revolved round the Christian world headed by Europe and North America and saw the greatest decline in civilization.

In 1900, the Christian world had authority over 69% of the land in the world, but by the end of the century it has been reduced to 24%. In 1900, Europe and North America ruled over 48% of the world population, but today that percentage has fallen to 12%. At the beginning of the 20th century, 78% of the manufacturing products was owned by the western world (it was 85% in 1928). By 1980 this percentage fell to 58%, but stands at 44% today. When considering gross economic products, it was 77% in 1900, 69% in 1950 and 48% in 1995.

These facts show that in all the above respects, the authoritarian activities of the Christian world of the west reached their height in the twentieth century and are on the decline at the dawn of the new millennium. In relation to this downward trend in the West, the Asian countries such as China, Japan and India, which were on the decline, are fast moving forward. Today Asia is responsible for 30% of the world economy and 65% of the population. With the breakdown of communism in Indo-China and China and Korea, philosophies like Taoism, Buddhism and Confucianism have gained ground. Today, Buddhism which has spread to many corners of the world is recognized as a powerful force.

The percentage of the Buddhist population in the world fell from 7.2 % in 1900 to 5.6% in 1999. The primary reason for this decline was the communist influence in China and Indo-China. The challenge in the new century will be to organize an International Buddhist network. Buddhism will be the identity of the expanding Asia.

The growth of Asia also has an affect on Christianity. In 1900, white Christians accounted for 81% and the non-whites (Africans, Asians and Latin Americans) accounted for 19% of the global Christian population. Today, whites account for 39.9% while non-whites account for 60.1% of Christians.

Asia is contributing more than America and Africa to the expansion of the Christian church. For example in Canada, active daily church participation fell from 67% in 1948 to 32% in 1985 and currently stands at 23%. In England, daily church participation fell from 69% in 1939 to 24% in 1984 and is expected to drop to a further 16% in the year 2000. The number of missionaries rose from 62,000 in 1900 to the current estimate of 250,000. The target of more than 50% of these missionaries is Asia.

The natural course of events will be the appointment of an Asian pope and the asianization of the Christian church.

Asia is important to the Islam world as well. In 1900, 4.2% of the world population was politically controlled under Islam. Today, it has increased to17%. This growth was due to rapid population growth; the liberation of Islamic states from the bondage of Christian empires; and the propagation of Islam in Africa and Asia.

In 1974, after the Iranian revolution, the Islamic political, economic and military force got stronger. Today, it is the followers of the Islamic faith in Malaysia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India — and not the Middle East — that inject life to Islam. They are active in China and Russia as well. Therefore the oil-princes of the Middle East who hitherto exported oil to Europe, chose to find markets in India, China and the Asian economic center. The asianization of the petro-dollar has smoothed out, to some extent, the anti-Islamic attitude of Europe and the United States. However, Islam will also have to undoubtedly face asianization. With the growth of the Hindutva concept, another religious force will be added and will be an important factor in the growing Asia.

The world will no longer be involved in political controversies like capitalism and communism. The dominant conflict will be between the western civilization and Chinese, Japanese and Sinic civilizations. It will be possible to see the reaction of the Islamic, Buddhist and Hindu trends towards it.

THE PRESIDENCY

CBK and Ranil face new dilemmas

When telephone messages went out to cabinet ministers to be present at Temple Trees on Wednesday evening, they were not surprised. They expected some celebrations and even a cabinet meeting.

But there were many surprises in what transpired later. President Chandrika Kumaratunga took oaths for a second time as the Executive President of Sri Lanka and also sworn-in an unchanged cabinet. Then, in delivering her acceptance speech, she broke down and cried when she spoke of her "two children whose mother had been spared." She quickly regained her composure though and had the sense of humour to smile and say "I am seated" when her speech stated "I stand before you."

Some ministers said that she was moved by the events of the preceding few days. Others suggested that it may be that the President had not read her speech beforehand and that the reference to her children caught her unawares. Nevertheless, Ms. Kumaratunga has assumed office for a second six year term. By assuming oaths on Wednesday, Ms. Kumaratunga effectively sacrificed one year of her second term — the Constitution has a provision which gave her the option of assuming the second term at the end of the first six-year period.

Luck, destiny, sympathy, charisma — call it what you will — but the lady has had her entire life inextricably linked to tragic events which have paradoxically parachuted her into power.

In the eighties, Ms. Kumaratunga was little more than a political embarrassment to her mother Sirima Bandaranaike. She played the rebel role to perfection along with Vijaya Kumaratunga by challenging 'feudalism' in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. In fact her Sri Lanka Mahajana Pakshaya (SLMP) ridiculed the SLFP more than it did the then ruling United National Party (UNP).

All that ended with the assassination of Mr. Kumaratunga, when his wife left for England — anxious more about her children than the state of the nation. Ironically, it was her husband's demise that paved the way for Ms. Kumaratunga's return to the fold.

Upon her return to the country, Ms. Kumaratunga purged the SLFP of Anura Bandaranaike loyalists and took command. Again, just when Gamini Dissanayake was poised to make a worthy challenge to her Presidential bid, the LTTE felled him and Ms. Kumaratunga was elected by an unprecedented mandate.

This week, the LTTE which by design propelled Ms. Kumaratunga to the Presidency in 1994, this time propped her up for her second term of office by accident through a botched assassination bid.

Obviously, the 'sympathy' vote — though defying an objective assessment — was a significant determinant in Tuesday's election. Interestingly, first footage of the bomb explosion relayed over the state media only showed the President stepping down from the stage smiling at a reporter. Then after much pre-publicity, the blast was shown — courtesy of a NHK cameraman from Japan — with footage of the President falling after the explosion.

The media pundits of the Peoples' Alliance, after bungling for months, had got it right at the last hour by showing Ms. Kumaratunga — eye-patch, plaster and all — addressing the nation on Monday, hours before polling opened. Ms. Kumaratunga never directly asked for a vote but asked for 'co-operation' which striked a chord as the election results show.

Then of course, there was rigging. It may not have reached the dizzy heights of Wayamba but men from the Presidential Security Division (PSD) did their 'duty', travelling in jeeps with garage number plates, even in Colombo and Kandy.

There were other contributors too. Samurdhi animators from Hanguranketha did their bit — as pointed out by the Center to Monitor Election Violence (CMEV) as did Douglas Devananda's Eelam Peoples' Democratic Party (EPDP) in Jaffna.

However, to be fair by Ms. Kumaratunga, the margin of victory — seven hundred thousand votes and fifty-one per cent — suggest that she may have still won the poll in a straight fight sans rigging and sans sympathy. These factors only helped her past the fifty per cent hurdle, helping her avoid the ignominy of awaiting a second preferential count and being tagged a minority President.

A thought must be spared for Ranil Wickremesinghe. He took up the challenge of fighting the Kumaratunga charisma when few gave him even an outside chance. Within six weeks he transformed that challenge into a possible UNP victory, a feat few thought he was capable of. That he was able to gain so much of ground in so short a time was because Mr. Wickremesinghe had a clearer view of things to do and the way forward for Sri Lanka. What he lacked was grassroots appeal and organizational groundwork from the UNP to counter the state machinery with the latter dying a natural death during five long years in the opposition.

It has been said that 'what might have been' are the saddest words in the English language and as Mr. Wickremesinghe counts his losses he would realize that his inability to identify with the rural masses could have cost him an election which he could have won.

No sir, talking of exporting ornamental fish, of the internet and computers, and even chewing gum and bracelets — realistic though they may be — does not capture the imagination of the rural voter whereas say, bread at three fifty — unrealistic though it may be — becomes a serious incentive. But still Mr. Wickremesinghe can take some consolation from the fact that nearly forty three percent of voters opted for him: the man who everyone said lacked charisma and personality. The UNP's base vote has increased and is on the rise and it just needs to capture that elusive floating voter, especially in the interior of the country.

Mr. Wickremesinghe must be aware of what his uncle, J. R. Jayewardene unhesitatingly said when asked what his greatest achievement was: rebuilding the UNP after the crushing electoral defeat by S. W. R. D. Bandaranaike in 1956. Mr. Wickremesinghe — thanks partly to the proportional representation system — does not have that much of a reconstruction job on his hands and what's more, he has a Bandaranaike on his side. What he needs now is some courage to continue the fight, patience to wait for half a dozen years more and little bit more support from within his own party, especially from what is left of the Old Guard. On the other hand, if the Old Guard now decide to rebel against Mr. Wickremesinghe that might be disastrous both for the UNP and also for the democratic process in the country.

But for the country itself, what does the outcome of the Presidential elections portend? Sri Lanka marches on to the next Millennium with the same leadership that governed the country in the latter part of the last Millennium. Will this leadership still have that laid back approach to governance that has led to the undeniable decline in the government's popularity — from nearly two thirds of the vote five years ago to just half of it now — despite still being able to win?

Will Ms. Kumaratunga have the courage to evade paying off the political debts she incurred in the recent months — to the Ashraffs, Thondamans, Devanandas, Amunugamas and Dinesh Gunawardenes to name but a few? Of them, Ashraff and Thondaman could not muster the support they did claim to command, so is Ms. Kumaratunga prepared to slowly but surely ease them out? Is she prepared to weed out the obvious misfits in her cabinet who are not fit for ministerial office or will she retain them for political expediency?

Another issue that must be addressed by Ms. Kumaratunga is the Premiership. This is because the LTTE has time and again demonstrated ruthlessly the fragility of the all-powerful Executive Presidency. In this context we must hope that last Saturday will serve at least as a rude reminder of the fragility of this system at the hands of a lone, deranged suicide bomber.

But have we done enough to combat it — with all deference to Ms. Bandaranaike — by the appointment of a competent Prime Minister? One cannot imagine that the LTTE will not try again. Our Presidential Security Division — so efficient at intimidating opponents — has only shown how inefficient they were in protecting the President despite having over 450 men detailed for the job.

The group photograph taken at Temple Trees after the swearing in of the cabinet with the ailing Prime Minister Sirima Bandaranaike seated beside the President is a gentle reminder that we are still ignoring a May 1993 type of situation. We cannot just say that God saved our President. Yes, He did, this time. However, one cannot but analyze the consequences of a calamity befalling the President. The country would have been without a Head of State, Head of Government, Defence Minister and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, while troops were engaged in battle with the LTTE.

We know that Ms. Bandaranaike, great lady though she was, is now ailing and is now not physically fit. So, a suitable remedy must be instituted because these are matters too serious for the nation to leave to chance, or to Kusumsiri Balapatabendi — or even, to the grace of God!

Then, will Ms. Kumaratunga in her second term of office as President — constitutionally her last — decide to earn her place in history, casting political considerations aside and attempting to become the focus of a rallying cry against the LTTE?

After all, Kumaratunga does not have to think about the next election. She can now afford to think about the next generation. Will she make the most of that opportunity or will that be squandered in the desert of political opportunism? On Wednesday, Kumaratunga said that she had miraculously been given a second chance by destiny. "From the threshold of death I have come back in order that I join with all of you to achieve this most urgent task for our beloved land; for our people and for our children" were her stirring words.

Unfortunately in her first term of office Ms. Kumaratunga seldom matched her words with deeds. For the sake of the 18 million people who inhabit the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, we must hope that Ms. Kumaratunga, in her second term of office, will be different.

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