The Political Column

26th December 1999

People have shown their hand

By our Political Correspondent

The UNP apparently failed to read the mood of the electorate because most of them basked in an early euphoria with a handful of analysts who misinterpreted the grassroot thinking. Nobody could deny the fact that there had been some sort of rigging in the country. But there was no ample evidence to substantiate that this quantum was sufficient to put president Chandrika Kumaratunga way ahead of opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The government, too, misused state resources for the election. There was definite abuse of state media and flouting of election laws. But the pertinent question is whether this would alone help the government to obtain such a comfortable majority. All these factors would have subscribed in some way, but the blame should go to the UNP for its ineffective campaign in the villages and in the provinces.It is of course true that anybody will say that they could have done better after losing the election but now the people have already returned their verdict and driven the UNP to the political backwoods.

In the city's political circles, many predicted a resounding victory for the UNP. Business circles thought that it would be disastrous for the country if the People's Alliance remained in power and urged that there should be a change, a change for the better. But the people rejected all this with a simple cross indicating their preference for Chandrika Kumaratunga over and above Ranil Wickremesinghe.

The people in the same frequency have rejected all the charges levelled against the president, be it corruption, abuse of power or misuse of resources.

The people while voting her, in for a second successive term had exonerated her of all the charges including Channel 9, Air Lanka and the Tawakkal.

By the same token the election results would appear to show that the vigorous campaign carried out by the state media, print and electronic, had paid dividends to the People's Alliance. The UNP's proposal to hand over the administration of the north and east to an interim council headed by the LTTE for a specific period of two years and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe's statement that he would hand over President Kumaratunga to the LTTE had apparently gone a long way to upset the rural vote bank. Mr. Wickremesinghe when he told that he would hand over Chandrika Kumaratunga to the LTTE, he made it in a lighter vein in response to a question posed in an interview. But the president was shrewed enough to capitalize on this. At the beginning, people did not take any serious note of this kind of exchange between the two leaders since they considered all these as political rhetoric, however, the president and the PA carried out a relentless campaign that the UNP was in truck with the LTTE and the UNP was prepared to hand over the north-east administration to the LTTE, once they are in power.

All these allegations levelled by the government against the UNP accusing them of being strange bedfellows with the LTTE synchronised with the Saturday explosion which killed 21 people and injured President Kumaratunga.

This may have given the President an added advantage as the only leader who survived an assassination bid by the LTTE. The LTTE was responsible for the assassination of the Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, Sri Lanka's President the late R. Premadasa and the likes of Lalith Athulathmudali, Gamini Dissanayake and Ranjan Wijeratne. These assassination attempts expose the sinister motives of the Tigers that they did not tolerate leaders in the south. Their strategy to liquidate leaders of the south began with the killing of Lalith Athulathmudali while he was addressing an election rally in 1993. This was followed by the brutal murders of President R. Premadasa and the UNP's presidential candidate Gamini Dissanayake. In short the southern leaders have to depend on the mercies of Tiger Supremo Vellupillai Prabhakaran.

When Mr. Dissanayake was assassinated by the LTTE while on the UNP election trail in 1994, the PA which had only come back to power after contesting the parliamentary election of 1994 maintained a deafening silence. The unfolding features are the same here, today. The UNP did not want to make a big hue and cry over the assassination bid of President Chandrika Kumaratunga, but this time the people responded positively. There was a big sympathy wave though the government of Kumaratunga was not so popular at the time President Kumaratunge declared her intentions to go for an election. The sympathy vote enhanced her majority and pushed her back to power.

However, as far as the UNP is concerned, they could neither take cover under the sympathy vote for their failure since the UNP in a statement categorically mentioned that there would not be a big sympathy vote for the PA, Nor could they get on to the streets alleging that the election was heavily rigged, since they don't possess sufficient ample evidence to maintain this charge.

Soon after Saturday's explosion, President Kumaratunga who suffered injuries in the bomb shrapnels all over her forehead was taken to safety and rushed to the Navaloka private hospital where she was treated by eminent medical specialists in Sri Lanka. The doctors removed shrapnels from her face, but told that she was risking the vision in her right eye.

After a CAT scan, the doctors found several shrapnels in her brain and there was little bleeding around the place. However, the bleeding subsided on its own to the relief of the doctors and her near and dear ones. There was some sort of anxiety among the people around her when there was some delay in regaining consciousness after the initial surgery, but it was not a matter to be alarmed according to the doctors who attended on her. After a day in the hospital, the President was back at Temple Trees where she addressed the nation over the national TV.

The TV pictures which showed the agonising moments of the bomb explosion stunned the whole nation evoking sympathy towards Chandrika Kumaratunga on which she rode to victory. Apart from this, if one examines clearly the postal vote and assuming that the election was held under favourable conditions, one could see that the trend was towards the People's Alliance, while the UNP was making a closecall.

The UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe was baffled when he learnt that the trend has turned towards the PA. The UNP's calculationshad had gone wrong. Could it be because Mr. Wickremesinghe's advisers were cut off from reality. The UNP lost badly in the Gampaha district and in the Ratnapura district. UNP's General Secretary lost Nivitigala by 8000 votes while he conceded the Balangoda seat also to the PA. In the Gampaha district, the UNP lost all the seats including their strongholds in the coastal belt. The UNP also lost the Gampaha electorate nursed by UNP Chairman Karu Jayasuriya, the Mirigama electorate nursed by Anura Bandaranaike and the Biyagama electorate which was held by Ranil Wickremesinghe earlier. The UNP fared well only in the city and in the plantation districts of Nuwara Eliya and Badulla.

The main flaw in the UNP's campaign was their overconfidence that even rigging could not stop a UNP victory. At the same time it should not be forgotten that instructions went out from the UNP headquarters to adopt counter-measures if the government was indulging in election malpractices. But the UNPers working in the outstations were not much concerned about protecting their polling booths against election malpractices in the face of duress and intimidation. They were not in a mood to inform the UNP leadership of the activities that had taken place. In fact, independent presidential candidate Vasudeva Nanayakkara on several occasions tried to contact UNP's general secretary Gamini Atukorale to inform him of the violation of election laws by the PA supporters. Mr. Nanayakkara urged Mr. Atukorale to make a statement then and there, but Mr. Atukorale who firmly believed that rigging could not stop UNP's victory, did not do so. However, rigging was not the main contributory factor to the PA's victory.

The past deeds of the UNP, and its mobility to come up with a proper alternative to the government's devolution package to end the war also subscribed to its defeat, in addition to the ineffective campaign in rural areas where the PA's vote base was static.

One other factor which may have subscribed to the defeat was the UNP's refusal to give election promises.

If one looks back, it is evident that none of the losing candidates was available on such occasions since 1982. This includes Hector Kobbekaduwe, Ms. Sirimavo Bandaranaike and Ms. Srima Dissanayake. Mr. Wickremesinghe had the courage to take defeat in good spirit. It is certainly a good leadership quality.

An examination of the UNP's political character would be more than sufficient to determine as to what went wrong with the UNP.

When J.R. Jayewardene authored the 1978 constitution, the system was tailor made for him. It always favoured the incumbent President to remain in power. But slipped out of the hands of D.B. Wijetunge since he called for a parliamentary election before the Presidential Election.

The present incumbent Chandrika Kumaratunga is well aware of the intentions of President J.R. Jayewardena when he formulated the 1978 constitution to bring political stability to the country.

Realising her ability it was former chairman of the UNP, later minister A.C.S. Hameed who came out with a formula which showed the UNP a way out of this political impasse.

He suggested to the UNP leader that the party should support the political package put forward by the People's Alliance in lieu of an independent public service commission which would put Sri Lanka's election system on the proper path. He suggested that the UNP should back the government to abolish the executive presidency which would bring the president back to parliament where she has a very slim majority. But the UNP could not make amends and missed the opportunity of coming back to power after one term. But now the UNP should take things in the stride and make failures the pillars of success and forge towards building up of the party once again as was done by the UNP's iron man the late Mr. Jayewardene.

What is more important in this scenario is the hand of friendship extended by the President to the UNP leader to join her. The President made an emotional but strong appeal to her countrymen in her address to the nation after she assumed office for a second successive term. Now the most important question is as to whether the UNP should take up this challenge. It appears that the UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is willing to consider the offer if the President has a genuine interest to solve the country's burning problem. Most of the UNP top-rung members think that the UNP should responde positively to the President's call. UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has apparently summoned the working committee and the parliamentary group for Monday to discuss this matter in detail. It looks like that Mr. Wickremesinghe is agreeable if the President makes a specific invitation to join hands with the government to handle the country's burning issues. In a way, it would help Mr. Wickremesinghe to protect his position in the party which has been threatened after he lost the presidential election. Mr. Wickremesinghe is expected to have discussions with the President on the matter when she arrives in the country after two months of medical treatment abroad. Mr. Wickremesinghe is likely to ask the President to implement his proposal and set up three independent commissions covering the police, public service and the election secretariat. He is also expected to discuss the modus operandi and the agenda to work on since they have time till August next year for parliamentary general elections and to decide whether they should go along with the government or not. If agreed, both parties are likely to go before the people for a referendum to extend the life of parliament. It is in the best interest of the country and the party that he should join Chandrika Kumaratunga to form a national government, one analyst pointed out. It will not only help the party but will also help to protect his own position in the party, he said.

While there are moves within the party to call upon Mr. Wickremesinghe to step down. The rebel group of the UNP has already written to Mr. Wickremesinghe requesting him that he step down immediately.

Be that as it may, the President at present is considering tough legislation to curb the LTTE. Since she has received a mandate from the people to fight the LTTE.

The President in her address emphasised that she would not allow the LTTE supremo to continue with his terror tactics, anymore.

This reminds anybody of the well known Brighton bombing by the Irish Republican army where the then British Prime Minister had a narrow shave.

Mrs. Tatcher thereafter introduced tough legislation to curb IRA's publicity stunts, since they believed that most of the terrorist organisations thrived on publicity.

Similar laws are expected here too, in time to come, to curb LTTE's publicity machinery.

Most of the analysts too expect semilar legislation from the PA but wonder whether it could be achieved if the PA join hands with the UNP, which advocate direct talks with the LTTE to solve the ethnic question.

The UNP however would not cooperate with the government to fight the LTTE but would insist on talks aimed at a reasonable political solution.

It is likely that Minister G.L. Peiris too would get involved in the preparatory talks with the UNP. Minister Peiris who is still under medical care after the Saturdays bomb explosion, had a narrow a have when he was hit by the shrapnels.

He too is expected to fly overseas for further treatment but not immediately.

For Minister Peiris it was a relief when he managed to secure a majority of 8000 votes in Moratuwa which had a deficit of 2500 votes after the PC election. Minister Peiris now hopes to continue with his good work which he started recently after being appointed as the organiser for Moratuwa.

In another development, the returning officer of the Gampaha has given a ruling rejecting the vote cast by President Chandrika Kumratunga at the presidential election. The counting agents of the UNP had objected to this saying that the Elections Commissioner had allegedly violated all norms relating to the election laws. They pointed out that no one is permitted or authorized to take a ballot paper out of a polling booth under any given situation. They argued that the election commissioner has no right to act in this manner though the counting agents of the other parties have agreed. The most important point there is to adhere to the election law. If this was allowed, it would create a precedence since everybody including the President is treated as equals before the law. Besides all these, the UNP as well as the PA are accusing each other of election violence. In Nikeweritiya, the UNP organiser Rohitha Bogollagama was threatened and his vehicle was fired at. Mr. Bogollagama vehicle was given chase by the PA supporters forcing him to abandon the vehicle and run for safety. In the meantime, the government politicians in Kurunegala are trying to implicate Mr. Bogollagama in a bid to cover up PA thuggery in the area.

In a similar incident, there was another assassination bid on a PA deputy minister Ediriweera Premaratne in Beruwela. However, both the UNP and the PA should be commended for the efforts they had made to create a peaceful atmosphere in most parts of the country after the elections. Now the need of the hour is to handle the ethnic issue on a priority basis and the UNP should give their whole hearted support to the government to achieve this goal which would bring peace and prosperity to the country. In this context, if the UNP was willing to join hands with the PA to form a national government, it should be done with good intention.

Situation Report

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