The coming horror

Consider this: Thunderstorms, rain and floods at unusual times of the year. Government troops and the LTTE fighting over land in the north and the east that may not even exist in the future.

Sea levels rising by half a metre, dry areas getting drier and wet areas becoming wetter, leading to floods in the wet zone and droughts in the dry zone.Higher temperatures in the atmosphere resulting in less water and that impact on agriculture seeing paddy output fall by 20-30 percent.

The health of the nation worsens when hotter areas force mosquitoes to hilly regions causing malaria, dengue and chikungunya.

Scary? Here's more: Parts of Jaffna and the northern and eastern coastline to get submerged by a rise in the sea level in about 30 years.

"People (government troops and the LTTE) are dying over areas that may soon not even be there," says Prof. Mohan Munasinghe, vice-chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in comments that are certain to draw the attention of hardliners from both sides of the warring fence.

This scary scenario is what the world including Sri Lanka has been told over and over for the past two decades — that global warming and greenhouse gases will lead to serious climatic change and manifest through crises like water issues, health problems and lower output.

But no one is listening, lament experts, including Prof. Munasinghe, an advisor to Sri Lankan governments and presidents on energy issues, ahead of an international report on climate change being released on May 4. Not unusual becomes, it's not our problem and will 'happen only in the future’. So why worry, be happy!

But if you have seen former US Vice President Al Gore's brilliant documentary ‘An Unconventional Truth’ on the frightful impact of global warming and greenhouse gases mostly emitted by the industrial west, you know what I mean. That reinforces the scary future. "Anybody who cares about the world and cares about their children should watch this movie," said one commentator on a website.

Prof. Munasinghe, known internationally for his work on energy and sustainable development, says climate change in Sri Lanka will have dire consequences on water, agriculture, health and the coast. "Already there are early signs of the impact which would assume serious proportions by 2025," he said. "But unfortunately if the developed world doesn't do anything to mitigate the impact, there's little Sri Lanka can do."

IPCC is releasing the third volume of its 4th assessment report in Bangkok on May 4. Since the first one came out in 1990, IPCC reports have been closely scrutinised by policymakers across the world, but action has been pitifully slow in tackling greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially carbon dioxide emissions, that cause global warming.

The biggest culprits are the United States and Europe through their fossil fuel industry and its powerful lobbies. Discussing some aspects of the forthcoming report, Prof. Munasinghe, a former World Bank energy specialist, said among the key messages would be the need to take immediate action to mitigate or reduce the greenhouse effect.

The report will also focus on the methods and technologies to make this early start and provide clear signals to industry to develop the technologies to make such a change. "Industrialised countries should lead the way as they are the biggest polluters," he said, adding that the Europeans clearly recognised these concerns earlier this year. "Thus there is now some action in the developed countries," he said.

The IPCC vice-chairman is frustrated at the general apathy of countries in dealing with the threat despite the fact that some of the best experts in the world prepare the reports on global warming. The latest one has contributions from 3,000 scientists.

"No one takes it seriously because it is something that does not happen today or tomorrow. The biggest culprits are the rich countries...so it's difficult to take action," he said, adding that one of the weaknesses in the campaign is the inability of scientists to translate their jargon into language that is understood by everyone, including politicians.

The world response to global warming has been lukewarm. When IPCC's first report, came on the scene, providing scientific evidence to show the existence of GHGs that can alter the climate, the public was sceptical. The second report dealt with the impact of GHGs, the impact on humans and need for mitigation.

The third report in 2001 focused on vulnerability and adapting to situations. It said even if there were zero emissions, what was already in the atmosphere would cause global warming and impact mostly on tropical countries, and thereby the poor.

Experts say even in rich countries it is the poor who are affected by global warming — as the impact of Hurricane Katrina in the U.S. has shown. More than 80 percent of the emissions that cause climate change come from rich countries with lifestyles and development that cause the problems. The per capita emissions of countries like India or China, despite being large, are a mere 1/30th or 1/40th of what is emitted by the U.S. or Europe.

Prof. Munasinghe says his argument — made during a presentation at the Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 — that there is a strong need for integrating climate change and longer term issues into sustainable development strategies has become a reality today. "Sustainable development is the way out... starting with the industrial nations," he said.

In the Sri Lankan scenario, population shifts where the country would have a bigger aging population in 30 years will exacerbate the problem since health is one area where the impact would be high."Remember, malnutrition and disease affect mostly children and older people. An aging population means there would be fewer people to carry the burden as well and all these would be vulnerable. Productivity will get affected because there are fewer young people," he said.

The most frightening issue for Sri Lanka from global warming is the impact on agriculture. "Studies we carried out with the Meteorological Department show higher temperatures and less water," said Prof. Munasinghe.

The other problem is that of equity, he says. In the wet zone where the hill country is filled with tea bushes — the tea crop will increase making those workers well off. When the cost of production of paddy rises, farmer-families, will be badly hit, but tea workers will be assured of their monthly wages even if production costs rise, tea generally being a more profitable crop.

In hotter areas, mosquitoes will be more rampant and even move into the more hilly areas. Thus the incidence of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue in endemic areas could increase in addition to diseases triggered by poor quality water that accompanies droughts.

What can governments and civil society do to mitigate the impact of global warming?

"A former president asked me 15 years ago what should we do on climate change — my answer is still valid today. I have advised every president since then but not all the advice is taken," Prof. Munasinghe said. He says firstly Sri Lanka should grow fast through sustainable growth. History shows that countries that are rich are less affected.

Secondly the country should advance plans for adaptation. For example special housing on the coast to withstand these changes.

In drought areas, drought resistant crops should be encouraged and in coastal areas, salt resistant crops. "The biggest difficulty is to convince people that something radical is going to take place in our lives and to be prepared for it. If we get people to listen and worry even a little bit, then we have achieved a lot," the Professor said wearily.