NEW YORK - The politically-volatile South Asian country of Afghanistan has long been described as a "graveyard of empires" -- first the British empire, then the Soviet empire, and soon perhaps the neo-colonial American empire.
The Afghans are mostly battle-scarred warriors who were successful in chasing out both the Brits and the Soviets in a different century and a different era. The mountainous terrain has been hard to conquer in a country where tribal and religious loyalties cut across all boundaries -- political, cultural and geographical.
Last week, the suicide bombings and the armed attacks, which are common in provincial towns and villages, came to the heart of Kabul, the beleaguered Afghan capital, as Taliban fighters launched multiple coordinated attacks on government buildings.
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| An Afghan family (C) is seen past a policeman's assault rifle as he guards a checkpoint near the Justice Ministry building during a snowfall in Kabul on February 12, 2009, a day after militants mounted an attack on its premises. AFP |
The attacks, described as daring and audacious, were also an advance warning to the Obama administration which is planning to send an additional 10,000 soldiers into Afghanistan in the near future, even though defence officials are seeking a total of 30,000 additional troops.
These troops, if and when they are despatched, will bring total US forces in Afghanistan to about 60,000. The combined forces from the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), including troops from Germany, Canada, Britain and the Netherlands, amount to over 32,000.
When in full strength, US-NATO forces could reach close to 100,000. But judging by the complexities of the problem, this figure may never be reached. Still, will troop strength alone help tame a country which could be more difficult to subdue than Iraq? Paddy Ashdown, a British diplomat familiar with the nuances of Afghan politics, last week ridiculed the lack of coordination and understanding by American and NATO armed forces currently entrenched in different regions of the sprawling country.
"The British think Afghanistan is Helmand," Ashdown said in a letter to the Times of London, "the Canadians think it's Kandahar, the Dutch think it's Uruzgan, the Germans think it's the Panjshir Valley, and the US thinks it's chasing Osama bin Laden."
In a direct appeal to Richard Holbrooke, the newly-appointed US Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ashdown said: "Someone needs to bash heads together out there, and if anyone can, you can."
Ashdown, a former European Union (EU) High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, worked closely with Holbrooke, who was the prime architect of the Dayton Accords signed by Croatia, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
But whether Holbrooke can succeed in Afghanistan, as he did in Bosnia and Herzegovina, remains to be seen. And in Afghanistan, unlike in Bosnia, he has to pull the Americans and the Europeans out of a growing military quagmire.
During his presidential campaign, Barack Obama said the war in Iraq was a misguided war. The US needs to pull out of Iraq, and at the same time, bolster its troops in Afghanistan, primarily to prevent the militant Islamic fundamentalist Taliban from regaining power and also to eliminate the safe havens for terrorists inside Afghanistan.
But there are two crucial upcoming events: a NATO summit meeting on April 3-4 (which will discuss strengthening the role of the Europeans in Afghanistan) and the Afghan presidential elections scheduled for August. At the summit, the US is expected to seek more NATO troops. A similar call by the former Bush administration never received a positive response. Obama may not do any better.
The Afghan President Hamid Karzai, a political stooge of the Bush administration, is out of favour with the Obama administration. Clearly, the White House would like to see him ousted in the August elections. But so far it is not rooting for any particular candidate. And Obama does not believe in regime change triggered by the White House either.
Unlike most other trouble-plagued regions in the world, Afghanistan is also unique in another sense. The insurgency in Afghanistan is fuelled primarily by the highly profitable narcotics trade. The speculation is that more than 75 percent of the heroin distributed worldwide -- and specifically in Europe -- originates in the poppy fields of Afghanistan.
While the US is trying to root out terrorism by staying in Afghanistan, the Europeans are trying to eliminate the flow of drugs by singling out the Taliban. Surprisingly, as part of its strict adherence to Islam, the Taliban cracked down on the drug trade when it was in power. But apparently it sees a justification for dabbling in the trade now since it is fighting an outside enemy within its borders.
The overriding political assessment is that neither the US nor NATO forces will be able to destroy the Taliban. Even US Defence Secretary Robert Gates admits there is no military solution to the war in Afghanistan.
With the increasing possibility of more lives being lost on both sides of the lingering conflict, the Obama administration may seek a dialogue with political moderates. But much will depend on the diplomatic skills of Holbrooke who may be on the right political track. | 
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