There was more to last week's apparent shift in India's policy towards Sri Lanka, articulated by its acting Prime Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
As revealed in the front page of The Sunday Times, the previous Saturday, he called upon the Sri Lanka Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) to hold talks and come to a peaceful settlement. The appeal came in statements he made to the media in West Bengal.
However, in a statement to the Lok Sabha (Parliament) just three days earlier, he ruled out any Indian intervention to stop military operations against Tiger guerrillas and accused them of doing much damage to the Tamil community. That statement was to please Government leaders in Colombo. They felt it was very much consistent with the position he took up during talks in Colombo in January with President Mahinda Rajapaksa.
Both domestic and international pressure had clearly compelled New Delhi to change its policy. Last Tuesday, just two days after Mukherjee had shifted position, the Official Spokesperson for the Government of India issued a statement on the "evacuation and safety of displaced persons in Sri Lanka." The nuances of the statement, which literally re-iterated the new Indian doctrine, were largely lost on the media on both sides of the Palk Straits.
The four-paragraph statement began with the following sentence: "We have seen reports that the LTTE has declared its willingness to discuss international appeals to permit internally displaced persons (IDPs) caught in the zone of conflict to leave the area for safety." Then, the second paragraph noted: "In this context, India appeals to the Sri Lankan Government and to all concerned to work out appropriate and credible procedures for the evacuation of IDPs to safety, which would include the international agencies being able to oversee the movement of the IDPs………"
In making the appeal, India has told both the Government of Sri Lanka and the LTTE, among others "to discuss international appeals" to allow the IDPs to leave. A senior Foreign Ministry source said, "It's a diplomatic way of telling Colombo to talk to the LTTE about the issue of IDPs without any conditions. That is providing a small window of opportunity to the guerrillas."
He spoke on grounds of anonymity since the official is not authorised to talk to the media. "Of course, New Delhi does not specify how Colombo should talk to the LTTE. Nevertheless, the important thing is the difference in approach now. They want all concerned (that includes the Government and the LTTE) to work out 'appropriate and credible' procedures. This, whilst the Government wants the LTTE to lay down arms and surrender unconditionally."
The main compulsion for the Indian Government is domestic. Pro-LTTE protests in Tamil Nadu coupled with threats from Dravida Munnetra Kazhakam (DMK) leader, Dr. Muthuvel Karunanidhi, whose party is a constituent partner of the Congress Government, to go on a death fast are key reasons. More so, with the impending parliamentary elections in India slotted for April or May, this year. Mounting international concern over the fate of IDPs trapped in the war is another factor. Undoubtedly, the shift in Indian stance is a key reason why Mukherjee chose to skip this week's Colombo meeting of SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation) Foreign Ministers. Until last week, plans were afoot for him to make at least a one-day visit.
This week saw international concerns expressed in various quarters over the fate of the IDPs. On Monday, Foreign Ministers of the European Union in a joint statement called for an immediate ceasefire to allow aid and free civilians trapped in the fighting. They urged the Government to ensure that camps for the displaced come up to international standards and can be independently monitored. They also called upon the LTTE to lay down arms and renounce terrorism.
But a more detailed discussion on Sri Lanka came in the US Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near Eastern, South and Central Asian Affairs - the first since President Barak Obama took office as President. Chairman Robert Casey noted that that Government of Sri Lanka will not negotiate with the LTTE. He said "it does not appear as though the government has much interest in finding alternative Tamil interlocutors, nor have the Tamils presented a credible alternative to the LTTE.
Jeffrey Lunstead, US Ambassador to Sri Lanka from 2003 to 2006, suggested that a powerful and united donors, both bilateral, Japan, and the EU and multilateral, including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, insist that development assistance would flow only if strict conditions are met. He said they could include devolution of power, quick resettlement of displaced persons, and a clear improvement in the human rights situation.
"With long experience in these matters, I will not pretend that meaningful donor co-ordination and aid conditionality are easy to accomplish.
They are easy to propose but fiendishly difficult to do. If the US and other donors made World Bank and ADB loans conditional on these changes, and if Japan, Sri Lanka's largest bi-lateral donor, conditioned its own assistance, Sri Lanka's friends could have a major impact," he added.
Dr. Anna Neistat, a senior researcher at Human Rights Watch and Bob Dietz, Asia Programme Co-ordinator of the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), also testified before the Subcommittee. If Dr. Neistat dealt at length with problems of the IDPs, Dietz was to detail out media freedom issues. He presented the Subcommittee with a detailed memorandum highlighting the conditions for the media, the instances of intimidation and harassment.
These developments came against the backdrop of behind-the-scenes diplomatic consultations by several parties to evacuate civilians trapped in the battle zone. As exclusively revealed in the front-page lead story of The Sunday Times last week, Donor Co-Chairs (US, Japan, European Union and Norway) are formulating an evacuation plan spearheaded by the United States military. This will involve their assets with the Hawaii-based Pacific Command. India has also offered its assistance to the Government for evacuation of IDPs. This week, Indian officials were busy talking to their counterparts in Colombo about sending a team of doctors to the areas where civilians are trapped. This is after they obtain guarantees of safety from the combatants.
In the absence of Pranab Mukherjee, and his Pakistan counterpart Shah Mohamed Quereshi, Friday's inaugural of the SAARC Foreign Ministers' meeting was lacklusture. Yet, President Mahinda Rajapaksa was to come out with a home truth. Besides terrorism, "another common challenge to our region and to the world," he observed is the "financial meltdown" that began in the US. He said it "will have a profound trickle-down effect in our economies as a result of our increasing links with the global financial and economic system."
The confession by Rajapaksa himself put paid to sycophancy by sections in his Government that Sri Lanka was saved the ravages of a global economic meltdown, thanks to the Mahinda Chinthana. The theory was strongly propounded not only by some economic pundits at the Central Bank but also by some leading members of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), a constituent partner of the Government.
Rajapaksa warned, "unless definite counter-measures are taken, this downward spiral has the potential to adversely affect our economies and impact on the living standards of our people." He likened the instability caused by this crisis to the threat caused by terrorism. "The effects of synchronised slow-down in developed economies, can reach us sooner than later," Rajapaksa cautioned.
In fact, as he uttered those words to SAARC Foreign Ministers meeting, Fitch Ratings revised the Outlook on the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka's Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to Negative from Stable. At the same time, the agency has affirmed the long-term foreign and local currency IDRs and the Country Ceiling at "B+," and the Short-term IDR at "B."
According to James McCormack, Head of Asia Sovereign ratings, "the revision to Sri Lanka's Outlook reflects heightened concern regarding the sovereign's external financial position in light of the marked decline in official foreign exchange reserves."
Fitch Ratings is an international credit rating agency dual-headquartered in New York City and London. It is one of the three nationally recognised statistical rating organisations (NRSRO) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The other two are Moody's and Standard & Poors.
Fitch, according to a report, estimates Sri Lanka's current account deficit widened to US$ 3.6bn in 2008 (8.8% of GDP) from US$ 1.5bn in 2007, with most of the deterioration in the trade deficit, which grew to an estimated US$ 4.4bn from US$ 2.4bn. As a net oil importer, higher international oil prices raised Sri Lanka's oil import bill substantially last year.
At end-2008, Sri Lanka's reserves covered just 1.3 months of current external payments (including all debit items in the current account of the balance of payments), one of the lowest coverage ratios of any emerging market.
That indeed is not a rosy picture for the country, and little wonder that Rajapaksa would want an earlier general election than later.
Ranil: Where does he go from here?
Knives out again for party leader; Karu to head WPC campaign
The daggers are out, yet again, for the blood of Opposition United National Party Leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe.
This week, UNP's Parliamentary group met to discuss the future of the party, and more particularly, the future of the party leadership. The crushing blows the party received at the recent elections to the Central and North Western provincial councils had led to the expected demoralising of the ranks of Tuscany. All blame was to be laid at the door-step of the party leader.
Spearheading the move were the likes of Johnston Fernando, Lakshman Seneviratne, Thalatha Athukorala, Dayasiri Jayasekera - and S.B. Dissanayake, who though not an MP, was invited for the parliamentary group discussion.
This ginger group was critical of the manner in which the party was heading for what they felt, was certain defeat at an impending general election.
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| Ranil Wickremesinghe |
One-time Chairman and now Assistant Leader Rukman Senanayake, the senior-most party leader asked Wickremesinghe to step down as party leader, hand over the reins to Deputy Leader Karu Jayasuriya, but to continue as Leader of the Opposition, and be the Patron of the party. He referred to the post-1970 defeat of the UNP when his uncle, one-time Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake remained party leader, but handed over the post of Opposition Leader to J.R. Jayewardene, sharing power within the Grand Old Party.
Senanayake identified the party's misreading of the government's military offensive against the LTTE as one of the crucial reasons for its continuing debacles. He said that when the party had passed a resolution at the party convention to support the Security Forces, but to have discussions towards a political solution, frontline members of the party were belittling the troops with stupid statements.
He said the party required a new image - a new face - a nationalistic approach, if it was to win back the support of the masses. There was a stigma on the party, he said and rather bluntly told Wickremesinghe that he is not 'marketable' to the electorate. Then, he went on to recommend two deputy leaders in Sajith Premadasa and S.B. Dissanayake.
Apart from Fernando, Seneviratne, Athukorale, Jayasekera and Dissanayake, others who spoke calling for a change in the leadership were Jayalath Jayawardena and Indika Bandaranayake, who said that he will not contest any future election if Wickremesinghe remained party leader.
Others who spoke were not that adamant about an immediate change, though they were critical at the way the party was being managed, and the pro-Wickremesinghe group pointed out that the number that wanted him out would number ten the most. This would include Ranjit Maddumabandara, who was, however, not present at the meeting.
Karu Jayasuriya, the man whom Senanayake said should lead the party, showed no great enthusiasm for the role. Jayasuriya, whom a group within the party tried to foist as party leader in an earlier botched coup, leading to the defection of 17 UNP MPs, led by him to the government benches, is now a much mellowed man after his run-in with President Mahinda Rajapaksa. He appeared once bitten, and now twice shy.
On the other hand, even he received some criticism from the likes of the young MP from the Kurunegala district, Dayasiri Jayasekera who pointedly said that Jayasuriya was not fit enough to even be the Deputy Leader of the party.
Kotte MP Ravi Karunanayake was of two minds. This was not unusual. Criticised within the party for adverse remarks he made on the eve of the Central and North Western provincial elections on the victories by the Security Forces in the Wanni, he wanted a change, but not right now. He said the party changes could not be implemented in 24 hours. He surely must have been concerned that the two deputy leaders suggested by Rukman Senanayake did not include him. He took a swipe at the very proposal by saying that leadership roles could not be doled out on the basis of anyone's wealth - or urumaya (lineage).
Sajith Premadasa for himself, showed no pretensions to the crown, but said that he did not want it right now. He was willing, he said, to be the party's presidential candidate - at the next round, not this time.
Those who spoke in support of Wickremesinghe, without any ambivalence were Renuka Herath and Vajira Abeywardene, and to some extent, Earl Gunaskera, Kabeer Hashim, Abdul Cader and Gamini Jayawickrama Perera asking for cool heads. Herath and Abeywardene were at the receiving end by the promoters for a change for their support for Wickremesinghe.
But as usual, there was no unanimity reached, and the parliamentary group meeting ended the way many such meetings have ended before. In any event, it is not the parliamentary group that decides on the party leader, that is a matter for the party convention. The immediate task before the party now is challenging the steam-roller Mahinda Rajapaksa administration in the Western province.
There appears a semblance of a fight-back from the UNP, and the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA) seems already riddled with the battle for the manapey (preferential) vote as Rajapaksa has said that the candidate who gets most votes can become the Chief Minister. Off to a flying start was Duminda Silva, with Thilanga Sumathipala in hot pursuit.
Rajapaksa has himself now admitted that the world economic meltdown is about to hit this part of the world (see adjoining column), and seems to be preparing the people for some further belt-tightening measures as he leads the country towards a general election later this year, probably right in the midst of economic tough times for the people.
The UNP will need to get its act together by then. The public probably believe that the UNP is the better party to handle the economy, but its disastrous public image on the war, thoroughly exploited by the ruling UPFA government is what has been its death-knell.
For those who are engaged in the in-fighting, almost all of whom, have lost their own seats at recent provincial polls. The choice is simply whether to sink together, or to sink separately - or - to try and reverse the trend. As was stated at last week's UNP Working Committee meeting, it's the million UNP mouths chanting day and night that they cannot win an election, demoralising their support base that has been a bigger factor for their defeat than all the efforts of the UPFA government.
The party then decided to appoint a Campaign Management Committee for the forthcoming Western province elections leaving Wickremesinghe out of it. Wickremesinghe himself suggested he be left out, asking them to inform him if they wanted him to campaign for the party - or not, something the party agreed to. Wickremesinghe even suggested that Karu Jayasuriya head the party to ready itself for a general election in three to four months, with him only kept briefed.
The Committee for the Western province election comprises Karu Jayasuriya, General Secretary Tissa Attanayake, S.B. Dissanayake, Ravi Karunanayake, John Amaratunga, Sajith Premadasa, Imtiaz Bakeer-Markar, Lakshman Kiriella and Vajira Abeywardene.
On Friday at 4.15 pm, Tissa Attanayake telephoned his party leader and told him that yes, the Committee has decided that he can campaign for the party at the forthcoming Western province elections. It was almost as if he had been pardoned, or given a temporary reprieve by the new High Command.
The Elections Commissioner has fixed the election date for April 25, a rare and unusually a time when there is a nonagathe (no activity) period for politics in this country due to the National New Year festivities and holidays.
But the knives are still out for Wickremesinghe. On Friday night, shortly after he had received a call from the Committee asking him to campaign, some members of that very same Committee continue to press for his removal.
One of the suggestions was to bring 2,000 people to Siri Kotha, the party headquarters at Pita-Kotte demanding the resignation of Wickremesinghe. Earl Gunasekera, one of them present walked out saying that they should not be undermining the Western province elections.
If the party's concentration is going to be the ouster of Wickremesinghe, which will lead to further in-fighting, rather than challenging the might of the Rajapaksa administration, then the Western province results is most certainly a foregone conclusion. |
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