Yesterday marked the first month since Sri Lanka’s security forces won a historic victory destroying the military capability of Tiger guerrillas and paving the way for the Government’s writ to run countrywide.
The triumphalism remains. Celebrations, including pinkamas arranged by the Maha Sangha to bless the troops, continue. Signs of the dividends of success are evident in many sectors. There is a moderate improvement in tourist arrivals though a return to booming levels is hampered by the ongoing world recession and heavy anti-Lanka lobbying by the Tamil Diaspora. The stock market has become active.
Though the Government hopes this would speed up foreign direct investment, prospective investors are still cautious. At least two major Asian investors who wanted to make a foray into newly re-captured areas want to see how things would settle down in the coming months. This is before they commit vast amounts in mega projects.
One of them planned a sugar production complex whilst the other has a major project to can fish. Inquiries have also been reaching Sri Lanka diplomatic missions abroad. Interesting enough, this has become a new area of pre-occupation for many Government politicians. Local agents are approaching them to make inroads to those who matter so projects could be pushed through. Naturally, that would yield commissions.
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| After the victory the continuing felicitations: President at an Anuradhapura ceremony where he received one of the highest national awards on Monday. |
But there are problem areas too. The task of clearing recently re-captured areas of mines, repairing damaged property and re-settling civilians has become a gigantic one. The Government has already assured India, which has extended considerable aid, that the process would be completed within six months. Yet, the practical difficulties cast doubts on whether a completion is possible altogether within the time frame. To facilitate civilian movement de-mining has to be carried out and repairs effected to damaged property. Besides the time factor, this task is financially gigantic. It raises the all important question of financial resources.
The issue assumes importance in the light of most countries so far offering only humanitarian and not development assistance. Colombo’s relations with the rich would-be donors from the west, who could contribute substantially, have been badly strained. There have been suggestions by them to channel development assistance through INGOs (International Non Governmental Organisations) and NGOs but the Government is averse to these bodies playing a role in the newly re-captured areas. It wants the aid to come directly. Even Japan, Sri Lanka’s largest aid donor, has shown some reticence. “The dust has to settle down first,” Japan’s special envoy Yasushi Akashi declared during his 18th visit to Sri Lanka early this month.
One of the most important areas of cash flow, at least to shore up foreign reserves, is the impending 1.9 billion US dollar loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In the weeks before the end of the separatist war, dwindling external reserves cast gloomy clouds over the country’s economy. With foreign assistance in the pipe-line, Central Bank officials are now heaving a sigh of relief. There is no dire urgency now for the loan though it is still welcome, they say.
Yet, some of the officials have succeeded in keeping the media hype alive with an information overload. There has been a feeding frenzy to the Sri Lankan public by SMS operators who are billed to give ‘breaking news’. The story on the proposed IMF loan perhaps is a record. This ‘breaking news’ about the loan coming in a week, two weeks or three from “top sources” has been played again and again. The only difference is that the loan is yet to come. The reality, is quite different. Firstly, IMF board of directors has not yet taken a decision to extend the facility to Sri Lanka. The reason is just simple. For them to determine such a request, they are yet to receive officially a Letter of Intent. That is from Sri Lanka’s Minister of Finance, in this instance none other than President Mahinda Rajapaksa. That procedure has to be gone through before the matter goes to the IMF board of directors.
It is true that the IMF has been pleased that some of the fiscal controls it wanted, have been effectively implemented by the Government of Sri Lanka. However, Government sources say, President Rajapaksa is not inclined to place his signature on such a Letter of Intent if he is not sure the loan is forthcoming. One could argue that the letter is a mere formality in the light of behind-the-scene exchanges but it shows there are a few more paces to go. Thus, the fact remains that the loan is yet to be formally approved. Without that, saying it is ‘round the corner’ is of no avail.
Added to that is the GSP plus – the concessionary apparel exports facility – the European Union has extended to Sri Lanka. Countries of the EU were in the front line to move a special resolution last month against Sri Lanka at the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva. Their pronouncements have added to the uncertainty that the EU would extend the concessionary facility after December this year. There are fears that they would use human rights issues as the main reason. Such a move, as already feared, would throw thousands in the apparel industry out of employment and force the closure factories.
Demise of LTTE, role of diaspora
On the side of the vanquished Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and their following, there were some significant developments this week. On the ground, their military capability now is zero. Despite speculation that some of their suicide cadres remained outside the one time battle zones, security authorities are confident they are not likely to resort to any violent activity. This is because the command and control structure of the LTTE has been destroyed.
“There is no one to give them orders or activate the already disturbed cells. On the other hand, the cadres themselves would wish to fade away than take targets on their own,” says a senior officer who spoke on grounds of anonymity. He says some cadres have abandoned the wherewithal provided to them like explosives and weapons. “These are the items that are now being recovered,” he says.
However, there have been noteworthy developments in the Tamil diaspora overseas. In the past it is they who have been bank rolling the LTTE. One faction now wants to resolve issues “democratically.” Another wants to continue a parallel operation to achieve their “liberation struggle steadfastly.” Both appear to be acting in concert but in different directions.
The military power the LTTE wielded is no longer there to be used as leverage and hence no move by either side will gain any weight in the eyes of the Government. On the other hand, any efforts at a regrouping to resort to violence would be virtually impossible in the current military scenario. They will not receive any form of recognition or cognisance from the Government.
However, what lay beneath these efforts are the several millions of dollars or billions of rupees worth of money raised by the Tiger guerrillas before their military demise. Added to that is the role of the Tamil diaspora. The assets include funds in secret accounts in Swiss banks as well as those in other foreign capitals. One such account came to light after a sting operation carried out by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). It came to light that funds were remitted to an agent who posed off as an arms dealer. The others include property owned abroad.
In one instance, it has come to be known that a sister of the former head of the LTTE Political Division, the late S.P. Tamilselvam owned a large house in Canada. This is reported to have been purchased from funds raised by the LTTE through the Tamil diaspora. There are also restaurants reportedly owned and operated by the LTTE in Bangkok’s Silom area, petrol stations and foreign currency booths among others in Britain and Canada. There is also the LTTE shipping network flying foreign flags of convenience. The question is whether the various fronts that were managing it would stake claims to the money and property. The joint move is partly to make sure the resources remain for the renewed efforts. Furthermore, it is intended to keep the support of Tamil diaspora overseas alive.
It is known that Kumaran Pathamanathan alias Selvarasa Pathmanathan (or KP), a most wanted man by Interpol, was made heir apparent to LTTE wealth by leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, months before his death. This was when he was appointed leader of the‘International Wing’. He earlier headed the LTTE’s procurements division. He is better known by his initials, KP. He was known to have helped the guerrillas acquire military hardware from various sources including Eastern Europe and Asia.
Enter Castro
He is also one of those wanted in India in the case over the assassination of one time Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi. It now appears that there is another partner who would want a share for procurement of more military hardware, according to well placed intelligence sources in Colombo. That is Kathirkamathamby Arivazhakan or better known as Castro. In the past years, he headed the LTTE ‘International Division’ and operated from the Wanni. Castro has said he wants to continue the armed struggle.
Soon after the Ceasefire Agreement of February 2002, with the backing of Tamilselvam, Castro played the role of key LTTE weapons procurer. This was during a period when Pathmanathan was ill. With the help of some foreign dignitaries, he proceeded to a Scandinavian country for treatment. It was during this period that the FBI sting came about. One related to guerrilla supporters in the US talking about deals in New York. The other involved an Indonesian Brigadier General and another who were arrested in the island of Guam. They were plotting to ship weapons from a US source that turned out to be an FBI front.
This week, a voice recording from Pathamanathan was circulated to the media, Tamil diaspora, Colombo diplomatic missions and foreign Governments. He spoke about a “Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam to be established” to represent “the political aspirations” and to be “the voice and conscience of the people of Tamil Eelam in the international arena.” The message received wide play in web sites of the overseas Tamil diaspora.
If the LTTE used the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) as its proxy, the new entity is also hoping to use it. Backing Pathmanathan in this task is Rudrakumar Viswanathan, (who went as V. Rudrakumar then), the Legal Advisor to the LTTE delegation during the Norwegian sponsored peace talks. He lives and operates out of New York.To place matters in context and analyse how the remaining resources of the LTTE and the Tamil diaspora are going to be used, it is relevant to record what Pathmanathan said.
"The struggle of the people of Tamil Eelam for their right to self rule has reached a new state. It is time now for us to move forward with our political vision towards our freedom bearing in mind the practical realities in our homeland, understanding the need for a common work plan based on a unified policy. We have called upon our people for their advice and opinion in co-operating. The advice provided by our people and the advice of our sectoral experts we have deemed as necessary the formation of a provisional transnational government of Tamil Eelam to take forward the next phase of the struggle.
Then, he goes on to say that the need for them "function understanding this pragmatic reality". Under these circumstances, he says a 'Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam' should be established representing the political aspirations and being the voice and conscience of the people of Tamil Eelam in the international arena.
He refers to the leadership of the Tamil National Alliancee that represents their political aspirations, and goes on to talk of a Working Committee which is to function within "democratic principles".
Hard on the heels of Pathamanathan's statement, Rudrakumar elaborated in another lengthy statement what they propose to achieve. He set out a nine point goal:
The Committee connected with the "Provisional Transitional Government", he said, "is given the task of structuring such a provisional government, with the view of, inter-alia:
- Uniting all Tamil entities;
- Working in partnership with the Tamil National Alliance (TNA),
- Articulating positions for negotiations;
- Conducting voter registration among the Tamil Diaspora with respect to a final resolution;
- Establishing direct links with foreign Governments and other international organizations;
It is not immediately clear whether the Pathmanathan statement has the backing or sponsorship of any foreign government or organization. However, the statement itself is relatively conciliatory in tone and spoke of democracy. On the other hand, Castro (speaking on behalf of a so called LTTE Department of Intelligence) struck a somewhat tough note in another statement issued “to set the record right” about Prabhakaran’s death.
He said: “Various sources gave varying information on the martyrdom of our National Leader. Contradictory information is circulating that he was arrested, that he surrendered, that he was killed after interrogation and that he committed suicide. In this situation, we, the Department of Intelligence have the responsibility to release confirmed news and information. Arising from this responsibility we confirm emphatically that the National Leader did not surrender and was not arrested but fought attaining Martyrdom.”
Military officials present in the Wanni during Prabhakran’s death, however, simply rejected Castro’s claim as “poppy-cock”. They said there was no question of any fighting. He found himself cornered. He tried to resist but failed. If others had consumed a cyanide capsule, there was none on him,” one source said. However, the fuller and authentic details of how Prabhakaran exactly met with his death are yet not publicly known.
Castro, who is now known to have fled to an unknown destination during the last stages of the separatist war, also appeared to comment on the second parallel operation spelt out by Pathmanathan. He said “At this critical juncture we have to carry forward our liberation struggle with the same steadfastness, discipline and coordination as done by our Great Leader who created and nurtured it.” At the same time he added “The task before us is to get together for the ‘Provisional Transnational Government of Tamil Eelam’ that is to be formed as the next phase of our struggle to achieve the goal of securing the political aspirations of our people.”
So, it is clear that with the wealth left behind by a militarily deceased LTTE, the one time moderates and militants are getting together to revive their role.
One wants to launch a political battle while the other to re-start the military campaign. Both of them now want to use the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) as the front for the task.
President’s options
It is President Mahinda Rajapaksa who indisputably holds the key. He is unequivocal in his assertions that there will be no room for a revived Tiger guerrilla group or their followers under whatever character they may assume. That brings to question the future of the TNA which has already earned the label of being an LTTE proxy.
On the other hand, Rajapaksa, who has committed himself to bring proposals to address what is broadly referred to as ‘Tamil grievances’ will now have to decide with whom he will deal. That is besides the Tamil groups that are backing him. Or is he to go it alone.
Already, he is under mounting pressure from foreign governments, India in particular, and the United Nations for instance to implement more fully the Constitution’s 13th Amendment which deals with power-sharing, while at home pressure is mounting from several quarters to dump the 13th Amendment and draft new political proposals.
That would be another story.
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