Rajpal's Column

A fight and an economy on our hands

If this columnist is permitted to tout another column in these same papers, there is a column by this writer in page 5 of The Sunday Times Business section today, which attempts to grapple with the issue of currency devaluation from a holistic point of view. ( This as opposed to a purely market - centric point of view which the business economists favour by several hurrahs. By the way, the column reveals some other things that might be of some interest as well, you be the judge..) Today's business column, a part of new business series, attempts to expose the feel of good market centric viewpoint about devaluation. Face it, folks, devaluation ( though it may now be inevitable ) clearly means another assault on the economy which has faced multiple injuries in the recent past. The brunt of that assault will be borne by the ordinary folks, the middle classes and the lower income bracket in particular. 

Perhaps one reason that devaluation and other ostensibly war related aspects of the deteriorating economy are not in the crosshairs of columnists and the intelligentsia, is that the war and economy are two things too close for comfort. 

But, nations which are in conflict, primarily due to economic causes, have also been touched by new ideologies which have conflict resolution as one of their key attractions. 

Generally, many economies which are tottering due to external forces are also mired in some sort of armed conflict. ( Zapasisitas, M 19, the list is too large, too difficult to pronounce and too intricate.) The same forces that dictate terms to failing Third World economies, also import methodologies such as conflict resolution which are supposed to magically dilute all prevailing confrontations in these countries.

The idea in conflict resolution is that "there is nothing a little level headed conflict resolution cannot solve.'' The root cause of problems, say the conflict resolution specialists, is not in unfair economic practices or even in corruption or transnational economics. Most social problems are due to an absence of professional conflict resolution techniques. It's nouveau and riche, this school of thought. 

What it means in the end is that the intelligentsia sleeps. Finger- pointing is not good for resolving conflict, and the prevailing standard will be that we shall not point our fingers at what really causes our economic problems and our conflicts. Pointing our fingers for instance at transnational companies, the whole impoverishing global economic order, will be quite useless. That sort of thing will not resolve conflict. 

If the Air Traffic Safety Board took this approach when investigating airline crashes, we might well see press conferences where the spokesperson for the aviation authority refuses to discuss the causes of a crash. He will insist that we need to avoid unproductive finger pointing, work for positive solutions and not simply dwell on past mistakes. (That quote is by an analyst who was not so fond of these conflict resolution techniques being applied to difficult developing world situations.) 

The economic impasse that the country is going through now, with foreign reserves adequate for just five months of imports, is not just accidental. Even those who cry for the intelligentsia to wake up, don't quite want to confront the nexus between transnational capitalism, the armed conflict here, and the ways in which people are trying to resolve it. 

It cannot be coincidence that most countries which are at the wrong end of the global economic order, all have conflicts. All we can see from a spectator point of view, at least, is that these conflicts are almost always nowhere near resolution. ( That's with or without the use of modern conflict resolution techniques.) 

But, sometimes, the only way to impose an economic system may be by force, and through conflict. This seems to be too true for the transnational global economic order that is being forced down our throats. Small wonder most countries such as ours, are always mired in conflict. 

So, we begin to see some sort of pattern emerging here. A month or so ago , the war situation exacerbated. First the country seemed to be tottering on the brink of a military disaster. 

Then the situation stabilized somewhat . Translation: the conflict continues, though now in a more acute chaotic and exacerbated mode. Then, prices began to escalate, especially prices of goods that originated from transnational sources. Devaluation of the currency followed, with or without attendant hurrahs. It's a familiar nexus. But its hazy patterns are by and large not examined under the microscope by many of the commentators, who are also, in many ways, perhaps unbeknownst to them, too mired in the conflict and the arcane ramifications of its details . 

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