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By Susantha Goonatilake

Truce beefs up two-state scenario
With the Government-LTTE agreement nearing one year, it is an ideal time to assess the ground situation. When the MoU was reached, the Tigers were exhausted. They had lost ground and more importantly they had lost more cadres than the army. They had basically lost their war.

At the recent talks in Thailand at Nakhon Pathom ("Prathama Nagara", the "First City " with its 8th century Sinhala Buddha statue), the Tigers not only refused to remove the heavy guns from the reach of the High Security Zone but more significantly, opted out of the Subcommittee on De-escalation.

The Tigers had always used two means, arms and psychological means, to control "their" people and their adversaries, namely other ethnic groups and the Sri Lankan government. By refusing to give in on the High Security Zone issue and opting out of the de-escalation committee the Tigers have maintained fully intact their military option. This, combined with the large amount of arms shipments smuggled in, which the government at various times tried to hide, meant that the Tiger military posture has increased.

Political work
After Jaffna peninsula was liberated in 1995 the Tigers could not maintain their psychological pressure. Now the psychological pressures on Jaffna are coming back in full force.

This is what is euphemistically called "political work" in the MoU. Psychological factors inculcate that a war is just, encourage recruitment of combatants and motivate cadres to fight. Today Tiger cadres and sympathizers carry this psychological warfare freely through the North and East schools.

Their "political activities" are carried out through other means. In addition many government media channels push an undisguised Tiger propaganda line, justify their actions and create false news while suppressing important news that are harmful to the Tigers.

The PA carried a propaganda barrage through its Sudu Nelum and Thavalama programmes which demotivated the South. While one side to the conflict was being psychologically disarmed unilaterally by its own masters, the other side continued to arm itself ideologically.

The biggest boost for the Tigers propaganda machinery is now the new radio gifted to them by Norway and the government.

The MOU has resulted in Tigers getting extra military hardware while keeping their existing weaponry. It has also dramatically increased their propaganda clout. The government ignores the army's statement on security and hires a retired Indian General for a fresh opinion. Meanwhile the government's recruitment drive has faltered. This is hardly surprising because of the massive government and Tiger propaganda indirectly discouraging recruitment.

The Tigers have now consolidated their hold and have established the main organs of a separate state. Private media have published details of Tigers' "justice" systems, "police force", the administrative system and banking and taxation systems.

How to stop it
The ceasefire has become in effect a ceasefire between two contending states. The two states are not fighting now and so there is no need for internal barriers or checkpoints. The borders had been drawn and the two parties are settling into their "two states" roles. This travesty has been achieved under a cloud of deliberate propaganda. What are the means of stopping such mischief making, short of a new government being formed? We have three independent bodies that stand above politics and political parties.

These are the Central Bank, the judiciary, and the police - hitherto under political control but now under a Police Commission and expected to be independent. These three institutions can take actions on the illegal Tamil Eelam Bank, Tiger Courts and Tiger police and customs.

On the backburner at Bangkok were also human rights. The Tigers are there because they defied the most fundamental of human rights. They eliminated any opposition to them. They have made denying respect for life and for the democratic will - basic human rights - into a fine art.

There are other pressing legal matters that any independent police or judiciary must consider.

One is the Tigers' crimes against humanity; an example: their killing in cold blood 900 policemen who surrendered. Such crimes have no statute of limitation and if this Police Commission would not take it up, a future one should.

Another legal issue is Minister Moragoda signing an agreement with Balasingham while the Tigers were banned. Another would be the charge of treason against the present government. These are issues and crimes of a grave kind, which a truly independent police and judiciary should take up. Amnesty International AI is brought in for the talks.

Their contribution, if they are not a neo colonial outfit, would be to get Balasingham arrested and charged as LTTE theoretician for the ethnic cleansing of Jaffna and the murder of the policemen.

Anti-Tiger groups must demand AI not to follow double standards and ensure that AI actions leading to the arrests of Chilean President Pinochet and Yugoslavian President Milosevic are strictly followed here.

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