Stars, not men, rule Lanka's politics
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
The astrological calendar has become the ultimate excuse for delaying the signing of the SLFP-JVP Memorandum of Understanding. The astrological consultants of the SLFP leadership point out that from 16 December to 16 January next year there are no auspicious times to be recommended as it is a barren season in the astrological calendar.

The second hurdle is the belief that February the shortest month of the year is again not ripe for great activities to be launched. Thus the lights of this situation may push the Blues to wait till March for an auspicious time to arrive for the signing of the disappointment plagued alliance draft. The Red faction is on the verge of abandoning the effort all together due to the frustration of the delay.

As internal pressure is rising from the lower rung of the JVP structure the party leadership has decided to take a firm stand on their side of the bargain. The SLFP is to be given an ultimatum to start serious work on the alliance or third week of January will be the D.Day. If things are not going as expected and the process put behind schedule JVP will pull the plug shutting down one of the most anticipated political projects in the recent political history of Sri Lanka.

The Reds are analyzing the SLFP strategy as a ploy to buy time to delay the process as long as possible. As analysts question the fundamental contradictions in the proposed MOU draft, fundamental ideological contradictions have taken center stage even before the practical differences begin to emerge in further dialogue.

The "Third Faction" of the SLFP began its operations from last week. The group is now spearheading a campaign to collect signatures of as many MPs as possible urging President Kumaratunga not to dissolve parliament. The secondary demand is to maintain a consensus agreement in the Peace process with the UNF. The Group is led by veteran SLFP Felix Perera. His two lieutenants Bharata Lakshman Premachandra and Chandana Kathriarachchi ably support this general from the old guard in this new movement.

Bharata Lakshman is a Mahinda Rajapakse loyalist who has taken a silent oath to fight the cause of the opposition leader under any condition. Interestingly Bharata is also a sworn enemy of the JVP. Kathriarachchi is a renegade with a political vendetta. Till recently Kathriarachchi was a member of the elite inner circle of the SLFP led by Mangala Samaraweera. Using a recent PA group meeting he spoke supporting the President's moves to talk with the UNF and denounced speedy elections signalling the abandoning of the rank he served in.

This new movement spoke of a strength of forty SLFP MPs and expected immediate response from all when signing the petition. The group has succeeded in collecting only a quarter of the amount. The rival group led by Samaraweera has been heard saying that the MPs who support this movement are all who fear that they would lose out in the possible run to a reelection. But efforts are being made by all internal factions to hit home runs trying to woo President Kumaratunga's shift of opinion to their respective courts.

Mr. Samaraweera is the fallen Knight in this arena of intense political battle and intrigue. His mission was crippled as consequence of critical damages that were suffered due to his attempts to burn the tracks in speeding up the alliance effort like a drag racer blown out of track. He was subdued to virtual silence and did not make any statement in the recent budget debates in parliament nor did he accept any speeches at political rallies. Samaraweera did his best to get the SLFP-JVP alliance going but he was a man fighting a battle in the party always outnumbered and outgunned with only the power of influence towards his side. This also depended on strong ties with President Kumaratunga who was the key weapon of offence and defence in this extremely volatile battlefield.

But President Kumaratunga applying brakes to his project and at the same time taking an alternative stance to talk to the UNF radically shifted the balance of fire power and the strategic advantage of Samaraweera to influence and manoeuvre.
But President Kumaratunga who opted to use her officials and woo the Prime Minister into a cohabitation regime or a more simple architecture of consensus governance has been halted through deadlock.

The talks beween the two parties have not broken down nor were they successful in a break through. With both officials taking wing to enjoy the Christmas break the cohabitation effort is in Suspended Animation or plainly speaking in cold storage. JVP’s Wimal Weerawansa has remarked watching this exodus, "by end of December only JVP and LTTE cadres will remain in the country".

Tom Plate the founder of Asia Pacific Media Network makes an attempt to compare the Burmese Junta with the actions of President Kumaratunga. He points out that this may trigger serious consequences like that of the junta-inspired anti-Muslim riots in Rangoon. But Kumaratunga is trying her best to establish some sort of link with the LTTE to establish herself in the peace process and get the nod from the Tigers.

Somehow the President also managed to send a letter to the Prime Minister last week reminding him of the verbal undertaking he had given to appoint his representative to address parliament on behalf of the three ministries she took over.
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe was also feeling the heat from his own members including senior ministers. The UNF was trying to show a defiant mood and take the posture that they were ready for elections at any given moment.

The UNF was also feeling the boomerang effect of its super charged run to clip the Presidents wings. The UNF had an edge over the opinion of the public on the dictatorial manipulation of the executive power to take over the three ministries. In the present context even the inspiring leadership of Prime Minister Wickremesinghe could not challenge the existing reality. The ground conditions are not conducive enough for the UNF to bring in enough pressure to change the executive posture.

As President Kumaratunga's offer of compromise was turned down by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe the compromise package was something worth giving a much bigger thought and did not deserve 'from the oven to the trash can' treatment. The UNF backbenchers along with some senior ministers are seriously considering an architecture for cohabitation even in a loosely knit informal arrangement with the SLFP.
These developments come in the wake of supreme court judgments, shifting of opinion, the Eastern problem and the LTTE attempts to expand its reach via Tamil MPs into the parliament. The ruling of the Supreme Court on the de-freezing of the Independent Television Network accounts will also make the UNF realize that the core of the argument that they try to champion against Kumaratungas take over of ministries is melting away.

Lakshman Kadirgamar who kept a relatively low profile after his defeat in the election leading to selecting a new secretary general for the Commonwealth, has just returned from India. The visit gave rise to speculation that it was yet another SLFP tryst with the Indian political leadership to warn them of the dangers of Ranil Wickremesinghe's Government playing ball with the LTTE.

But this visit was a strictly private one where Kadirgamar attended a seminar organised by the Hindustan Times in New Delhi, and a Karnataka music festival organised by the Hindu in Chennai. At least Kadirgamar seems to have won the Indian media even if the SLFP has lost the local media with their repressive media policy of yesteryear.

As complications rise with internal conflicts involving the ministries President Kumaratunga took over, problems keep skyrocketing on a daily basis. The contestations are becoming inter party in nature as tribal and clan warfare begins to heat up within the PA. The bargaining is for stakes to grab as spaces of opportunity opened up in the process. Harim Peiris the chairman of Rupavahini Corporation will feel the heat when Desha Hiteshi Jathika Viyaparaya backed by the SLFP-JVP elements will start protesting against the PA’s media policy. But the hidden agenda in this protest is to oust Harim Peiris and to replace him with Nishantha Ranatunga now a working director at SLRC.

Also facing the sword will be Kesaralal Gunesekera the chairman of Lake House. He is facing an internal revolt from trade unions led by his own party members and plans are under way to replace him with Tikiri Kobbekaduwa a working director of Lake House and a Bandaranaike clan member. Two more vacancies that of the Director of Information department and chairmanship of the State Printing Corporation will also go to SLFP sympathizers.

As the state media institutions are becoming fields of contestations of SLFP contenders, the media policy that is being maintained curently may affect the SLFP drastically. The JVP elements along with the nationalistic DJV component is being virtually propelled to the limelight. The political discussions give more air time to JVP members than even the SLFP cadres. Democratically this may be more than correct but in the long run this can affect in the dilution of the SLFP grassroots and the ability for the JVP to carve into SLFP strongholds.

As the SLFP internal dynamics herald the emergence of possible splinter groups within the party, a unique figure who fell out with President Kumaratunga came to the lime light very recently and in a significant manner. When the Sangha council met to make the funeral arrangements of Ven. Soma Thera the only political figure to be seen was A.H.M. Fowzie and surprisingly later on he was appointed to the organizing committee. Fowzie was addressed as the representative of the President of Sri Lanka Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga.

Another internal political battle front was opened up by younger Fowzie when he took on a long time political friend of his, the Opposition leader Mahinda Rajapakse. Nauzer Fowzie, a key ally of Rajapakse, was upset when a meeting was held recently in his seat by Baharata Lakshman Premachandra. His feelings were hurt when Rajapakse attended this function and from the same platform Dilan Perera hurled remarks aimed at Nauzer Fowzie.

Immediately after this function Nauzer Fowzie sent a letter to President Kumaratunga on the violation of boundaries and turf by another party member and also criticized the presence of Mahinda Rajapakse on this occasion. This was a function that Rajapakse had to go to. A person who is more like the kamikaze point man for the Opposition leader organized it.

In an intensely dynamic and volatile political culture, the example of Fowzie stand out as the sum total of the political paradox in Sri Lanka as reality in politics which people see and hear become the total contradiction in system processing. As deadlocks, stale mates are done and undone to the liking of politicians, they always forget that people need solutions not explanations, action not retreats, hope not disappointment. Help is much needed to aid them cross this threshold of expectation.

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