Takeover or not: Tiger turning titan

It is exactly two months today since President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga took over the defence portfolio together with interior and mass communication.

Nothing substantial has changed. A few things, however, have taken place. She has personally taken stock of the prevailing ground situation in the North-East during meetings with armed forces chiefs and their field commanders. She has ascertained their equipment needs and personally granted approval for selected purchases. This is on the basis that they are urgent.

Though the Treasury is in the hands of the United National Front (UNF) Government, allocation of funds will not become a contentious issue. During their periodic interaction over matters relating to co-habitation, both President Kumaratunga and Prime Minister, Ranil Wickremasinghe, have acknowledged the need to meet the urgent equipment and other requirements of the armed forces.

With President Kumaratunga (now the de facto Defence Minister) and Premier Wickremasinghe holding the reigns on finances (through the Treasury), a salutary feature, one hopes, would be the emergence of some checks and balances. The UNF will be in a position to bring the procurement process under close scrutiny whilst making available funds for what is genuinely and urgently required. That way, they can prevent Sri Lanka from becoming the dumping ground for dud equipment. It was not very long ago that colossal amounts were spent on many items including dud shells, non functioning radars, non airworthy aircraft and battleships of museum vintage.

In doing so, they can also ensure some forms of checks are maintained to prevent corrupt activity. It would be almost impossible to curb it effectively without a proper mechanism. One way would be to establish a centralised procurement agency for the armed forces and the Police. Such an agency can ensure procurements are standardised for the armed forces and even the Police. That is besides engaging in forward planning for requirements. At present the task is left in the hands of a few, more often those lacking any expertise. They are also ad hoc and hurried.

On the other hand, if the ever increasing acrimony over issues related to cohabitation is any indication to go by, the procurement process can also become a casualty. That will no doubt defeat the sole objective for which President Kumaratunga said she took over the defence portfolio.

She declared in her broadcast to the nation on November 7 "The sovereignty of the State of Sri Lanka, its territorial integrity and security of the Nation have been placed in grave danger by acts of wilful commission and other acts of careless omission by some members of the Government."

Most Sri Lankans know she was not wrong when she said that the security of the nation has been placed in grave danger. Since the Ceasefire Agreement of February 22, 2002, the UNF Government badly neglected the armed forces and even the Police. Some Cabinet ministers and officials also perceived them as the enemy. During a period of a year and eight months, until President Kumaratunga took over the defence portfolio, Tiger guerrillas have continued to strengthen their military machine, as repeatedly revealed in these columns.

This was whilst the armed forces faced the threat of being down-sized, their equipment demands not met, their ammunition stocks not replenished, their recruitment drives not proving successful and their desertion rates rising to levels that exceeded times of war. This again was repeatedly highlighted in these columns.

Sri Lankans have already been told that the security of the nation has been placed in grave danger. Therefore the question arises as to what tangible measures have been put into place to deal with the situation? That is to assure the public that the armed forces are in a much higher level of preparedness and readiness to meet this "grave danger."

The question becomes significant not only because President Kumaratunga has taken over the defence portfolio and warned there is a "grave danger" to the nation. As Sri Lanka enters the fourth year in a new millennium, it becomes relevant due to many more important factors. The peace talks remain suspended for the past nearly ten months. Tiger guerrillas say they do not know with whom in the South to talk peace. Norwegian facilitators have also suspended their role saying there is no clarity in the situation since November 4, last year.

The economy has taken a down turn. Foreign investors have shied away. Tourist arrivals were affected. If these developments together with many others contribute to instability, a weakening defence sector drifting without direction makes matters worse.

Yet, despite all appeals, the latest from leaders of the Buddhist clergy, Premier Wickremasinghe insists he cannot continue the peace process unless he has the defence portfolio. Since the ceasefire whilst talking peace, his UNF regime strengthened the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), both politically and militarily, to hitherto unprecedented heights. This was whilst drastically weakening the capability of the armed forces and severely blunting their military preparedness.

That this changing situation enhanced the bargaining position of the LTTE immensely and continued to erode the choices left to the UNF at the negotiating table became increasingly clear. So much so, many raised concerns on whether the UNF would be forced to concede most LTTE demands without a debate. This was because the armed forces were weakened and their control of areas in the North-East decreased.

President Kumaratunga, quite rightly, summed them up as "grave danger" to the nation. Two long months later, that grave danger continues to remain, if not increase. Why? It is simply because nothing has been done to arrest the situation. Defence matters, from the simplest to the most complex, have been allowed to continue to drift.

The result is a paradoxical situation. Premier Wickremasinghe and his UNF allowed the Tiger guerrillas to become much stronger, both politically and militarily, whilst talking peace. Conversely the security forces and the police were made weaker.

Now that the defence portfolio is in the hands of President Kumaratunga, the same situation continues although there are no peace talks now. In fact more doubts are being cast on the peace talks after reports from London this week that LTTE Chief Negotiator, Anton Balasingham, may delay his visit to Wanni scheduled for later this month.

With the dawn of 2004, a look at how matters defence fared in the hands of the UNF for 20 months and later for two months under President Kumaratunga shows little difference. Hence, the resultant uncertainty will continue to linger in the New Year. A look at some of the recent developments will give an idea.

Last Tuesday (December 30) President Kumaratunga chaired a meeting of the National Security Council at Janadipathi Mandiraya. The Sunday Times learnt that growing concerns over activities of extremist religious groups came up for discussion. President Kumaratunga who wanted to ensure there was no violence, particularly on a New Year's Eve, wanted Police Chief, Indra de Silva, to take appropriate action. As a long term preventive measure, she said Police should also form Civilian Committees in various areas to maintain religious harmony.

In this backdrop of some uncertainty over the security situation on New Year's Eve, one arm of the armed forces held their dance at a City hotel that very night (December 31). Another was busy with an overnight entertainment programme in a public area. This is by no means to fault them for indulging in any revelry. But the all important question is whether the timing, holding it on the night of December 31, was in the best interests of national security? The question is asked only in the national interest. If such an event was taking place in a mess hall, one has no complaint. But these were in public places.

If an untoward incident that night was to place a heavy demand on the Police, those in the armed forces who would have to make decisions to provide help would not have been available. The simple reason is they were also partying. State intelligence agencies are in such a state of confusion and ineptness that they could not warn the Ministry of Defence of such a simple thing. Nor was the Ministry itself conscious of the possible dangers. If they were, they could easily have persuaded those responsible to re-schedule their events for another date since there is a public responsibility cast on the two services concerned. In such situations the belief that nothing will happen is by no means the answer. If an untoward incident does occur, this is how the blame is always placed on some junior officer for neglect of duty.

That there is inaction from the most simplest to the most complex issues over matters relating to defence and security of Sri Lanka clearly shows that things have been allowed to drift. No one seems to be in control. Needless to say this lackadaisical attitude will contribute further to the growing political, economic and security instability of Sri Lanka in the New Year. But who cares?

Whatever measures that have been adopted in the past two months in the sphere of defence were those set in motion when the subject was in the hands of the UNF. One is the formulation of a list of equipment requirements for the armed forces. After protracted delays, some have just been approved by President Kumaratunga. The UNF proposed a Defence Co-operation Agreement with India. A visit to India by Chief of Defence Staff and Commander of the Army, Lt. Gen. Lionel Balagalle was planned when the subject of defence was in the hands of the UNF.

However, it was called off after President Kumaratunga took over the defence, interior and mass communication portfolios on November 4, last year. Later, Lt. Gen. Balagalle, who undertook the visit announced a number of measures he had initiated - follow up action on the proposed Defence Co-operation Agreement, twinning of Indian Army regiments with the Sri Lanka Army, exchange of intelligence information between the two countries, joint patrols in the Indian Ocean by Indian Navy, Coast Guard and Sri Lanka Navy, training of Sri Lankan troops in India, obtaining Indian troop transport helicopters on hire, repairs to the runway at the Palaly airport and the setting up of a war memorial for Indian troops who died in action in Sri Lanka.

Another measure, also decided upon when the UNF held the defence portfolio, now being enforced by the Army, relates to the High Security Zones (HSZ) in Jaffna. The existing buffer zone outside HSZ perimeter which is one kilometre is now being reduced to 600 metres. This means civilian settlements are being allowed in the 400 metre belt that is being vacated. Senior Army officials say only those who had lived previously in the area will be allowed to re-settle after they go through a full background scrutiny.

President Kumaratunga who left yesterday for Islamabad to attend the SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation) summit is also expected to have bi-lateral talks with President Pervaiz Musharaff. Such talks are almost likely to focus among other matters on military assistance from Pakistan. Whether she will have the time to discuss details is not clear but President Kumaratunga is armed with an aide memoire provided by the Army. It refers to a Pakistani offer of a credit line of US $ 20 million which is still not activated and lists some of the military hardware that could be obtained.

Whilst matters security and defence are allowed to drift as the acrimonious battle over cohabitation continues, interesting enough, the LTTE has continued to maintain a stoic official silence. But, behind that silence, the guerrillas are busy consolidating the gains they made and preparing themselves for any eventualities that may arise. The uncertainties in the South have, quite naturally, enhanced these measures.

Details of how they were recruiting and acquiring new military hardware have been repeatedly revealed in these columns in the past year. On March 10 and June 14 last year, Sri Lanka Navy intercepted and sank two Tiger guerrilla vessels - MV Koimar and MV Soshin - whilst they were attempting to smuggle in military items.

A glimpse of guerrilla activity in the past year and continuing now will give an idea. Besides recruitment and training of new cadres, those already serving have been put through refresher courses. For ground fighting elements such training exercises have included bunker busting with sand model structures of various important installations including security forces camps.

For members of the sea going arm, the Sea Tigers, live firing exercises have been going on off the North-East coast, particularly off Chalai and Mullaitivu. In fact when officials of the Sri Lanka Navy raised issue with a senior Defence Ministry official of the UNF last year, his advice was to ignore it for the time being. However, he had backed out when a Navy official asked for the advice in writing.

Intelligence sources say Sea Tiger cadres are also being trained on how to attack naval craft, under water sabotage techniques and handling of heavy weapons. Some of these personnel together with trained Black Tiger (suicide) cadres have been sent to the East upon completion of training. Yet others have been tasked to monitor movement of naval craft in the eastern waters.

These sources say that despite the stepped up recruitment, Tiger guerrilla leadership is not pleased with the existing strength. Hence, fresh targets have been placed for 2004 and area leaders have been told they should meet them. New recruitment campaigns are to begin particularly in the east.

A more important development that will add muscle to the LTTE's present politico-military stature is moves to establish a broad based television broadcasting facility. Test TV broadcasts are now being conducted from a secret location in the Wanni. The TV station "Nidarshanam," plans initial broadcasts to cover a radius 40 kilometres in the Wanni region and gradually expand it. The same TV station existed in a very limited way when the LTTE was in control of the Jaffna peninsula in the early 1980s.

According to reliable intelligence sources, state of the art TV broadcast equipment to ensure an extended broadcast facility has been smuggled in through the north east coast. This is in marked contrast to radio broadcast equipment which the LTTE persuaded ever obliging top UNF officials to import circumventing all laid down procedures. The import duty on this equipment as well as the licence fee has not yet been paid. But the Voice of Tigers radio station which is now on air has been able to reach a wider area from Kilinochchi including some parts of Vavuniya.

The same sources say the broadcast spectrum from the radio equipment was now restricted though it could be expanded to reach a much wider area. That was both through repeater stations and elevated towers. It is through these processes that the LTTE had now planned to extend VoT broadcasts to areas in the east where they have regained control.

On the subject of LTTE radio equipment, an interesting development this week are interviews being conducted for the promotion of Inspectors to the rank of Assistant Superintendents of Police (ASPs). At least one candidate has obtained additional points in his career to stake his claim to become an ASP.

These additional points have been given to him by a top Police official, who has since retired. These points were not for any act of bravery. The Inspector concerned has been commended and the points were conferred because he led a Police team that escorted the LTTE radio equipment from the Colombo Port to the Army check-point at Omanthai. From there, Tiger guerrilla cadres took delivery of the equipment and transported it across the Alpha Nine (A-9) highway to Kilinochchi.

Top officials aided and abetted in violating laid down procedures for the import of the equipment. Customs duty on it has not been paid. There have been no probes into their conduct and no steps have been taken to recover the sums due to the State. Yet, a top Police official has thought it fit to reward an Inspector only because he succeeded in escorting the equipment from Colombo to Wanni.

This mission to escort the equipment fell on the Police after the Army refused to do so. The move is all the more intriguing since the Inspector in question denied to the media that he ever escorted it. Did the reward cover his decision to keep the exercise a secret? Must one say this incident again highlights the fact that things have been allowed to drift with no one in direct control.

As a New Year begins, the LTTE strengthened politically and militarily by the UNF consolidates itself further with all the trappings of a separate state. Since President Kumaratunga's take over of the defence portfolio, defence and security related matters have been allowed to drift aimlessly.

If both sides are weakening the defence of Sri Lanka, they are together strengthening the LTTE by their inaction and by delaying the peace process. Sri Lankans have no choice but to watch helplessly for both are continuing to fail them.

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