Strikes, jokes, rumours and an election
By Our Political Editor
Only a little good humour between the chief actors in the country's absurd political theatre served last week to cut the tension that prevailed beneath the surface. At the Independence Day celebrations there was a little cameo that almost mocked the masses in that it seemed to indicate that "all is well between us - the problems we create are all yours.'' There was a jibe from Speaker Joseph Michael Perera about impeaching the President, and the PM's aside on it was that this is why everybody is hearing that the President is ready to dissolve parliament.

But, beneath this the reality was almost ludicrous. The rumour mill working grossly overtime had it that parliament will be dissolved anytime - -and the jokes between the President and the Prime Minister apart, this uncertainty symbolised the predicament of the nation. The economy could not possibly get on an even-keel when there is a rumour almost every day that parliament will be dissolved and elections called.

At an SLFP Central committee meeting at President's house, the President seemed to have overwhelming feedback that she should dissolve parliament. But, she not only said she is not sure about the chances of the Alliance winning - - but also said that there is the other important question of what the Alliance is gong to do in the event of winning.

The UNF was quick to pick up on that second concern of the president. Top UNFers were echoing the President saying that there is not much an alliance government could do in an atmosphere in which the donor countries are not happy working with a SLFP-JVP government. Therefore they felt an alliance government will not be able to deliver on the economic front, or on the peace process due to the fact that there was no basis for negotiations with the type of stand that the JVP is taking on that issue.

The government in this backdrop of events prefers to take the 'business as usual' option. Minister Milinda Moragoda left for Japan Saturday, to drum up investment and there he will meet with Japanese special envoy Yashushi Akashi. Moragoda has special reason to be miffed with the cohabitation process. He was meeting the President to give her regular briefings on the peace process among other things. But then the President is alleged to have ratted to the media about certain alleged happenings in some of the Ministries coming under Moragoda. Moragoda was apparently flabbergasted over the fact that the President meets him every week but chooses to criticise him in the media without discussing the problems with him beforehand. So miffed was he that he stopped his weekly briefings with the President.

Though Moragoda was unhappy, some others were still upbeat about cohabitation, and one of them was the UNP Chairman Malik Samarawickreme who told the UNP Central Committee meeting that his talks with Mano Titawella were progressing very well. But, he refused to divulge any further information on that -- and all the people have to go by is the rather comic assertion in certain daily papers that the Mano-Malik talks are working -- no they are not working -- yes they are working etc.etc.etc.,

So with the Mano-Malik talks permanently on the blink, those interested about the state of affairs of the nation had to desperately look for other signals. The SLFP Central Committee meeting was told by several top rankers that the Tiger backed TNA or the new Tamil alliance in the making (whichever will front for the LTTE at the elections..) will secure 24 seats -- which should be taken as a warning sign for the Alliance according to these MPs.

The Alliance was assigned the butterfly symbol recently by the Commissioner of elections, and with Mano Ganeshan behind a grand Tamil alliance move that was taking shape in Colombo last week, it appeared that a general election -- if any - - will be a polarised contest between extreme Tamil elements and extreme Sinhala elements.

The UNF hierarchy was taking comfort in the fact that after the magul bera beating celebrations with kevun and kokis that heralded the Alliance, it was business back to usual. They felt that the UNF has not focussed on the issues proper yet, which will happen however if there will be an election. Though Anura Bandaranaike joked at a party leaders meeting that the UNF can have anything it wants in the parliamentary agenda because this parliament will be dissolved very soon, what's clear is that this kind of sentiment only represents the gung- ho surface of the SLFP leadership.

There are several serious issues that the President will have to consider if she is going to call for an election. Among these is the fact that the numbers will not necessarily assure her a chance of forming a government in what will inevitably be a hung parliament. This is why she was carrying on with the cohabitation process in earnest, and getting the help of some of the most preferred international players to boot. The Indian High Commissioner in Sri Lanka Nirupam Sen for instance was making certain suggestions that were clearly aimed at avoiding elections and he was almost serving as a liaison man between the Ranil and Chandrika camps last week trying to hammer out some accord between these two petulant factions.

However, even issues that are trivial and which almost border on the absurd continue to engage the attention of this nation which is uncertain of the direction in which it is moving. A little lateral movement, almost inconsequential can cause a big flutter, and this is what happened when the President's daughter Yasodara was present at an independence day fete at President's house.

UNF election watchers were almost proudly announcing a couple of months back that it is the President's daughter who is standing in the way of a JVP-SLFP alliance because of her strong emotions about getting together with a party that has a history of assassinating so many politicians including her father. Therefore the PM was perhaps not only making small talk when he asked the President whether her daughter might not take a plunge into politics. There was no answer to that one -- but the Prime Minister needed to make sure how the political climate is developing on the other side.

Here he was, being hemmed in by strikes, and being assailed by the talk of elections, and in that spirit even a little information that will give him some clarity was welcome. The Marapana-Lokuge -Senaratne committee which was negotiating with the Railway Unions was coming in for flak from the UNF team for not being able to get a handle on the strikes despite all the confident assurances, but the government is willing to go the distance without dismantling the Railway Authority.

The JVP has been gung-ho for a very long time now, and general destabilisation is its means of challenging not just the government but also the President to disturb the political status quo. In this way there was some cohabitation by default. Ranil and Chandrika the children of independent Sri Lanka were almost in unison in their caution against the fire-breathing children of 1956, who want change even if it is going to mean shaking the political establishment to its very roots.

Talking towards a new political culture
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
If President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga decides to dissolve parliament it would be in the wake of a huge SLFP lobby within the party pressing her for snap polls. This could trigger the collapse of the Mano-Malik talks which have been trying to find ground for consensus between the two parties to cooperate in governance. This committee was the only hope and exit strategy there was for the two parties to break the impasse.

As Mano-Malik committe highlighted throughout the whole process a shadowy group of people have been operating to keep the talks going. This is the story of the "citizens group" which tried to avert a political crisis in the country thus keeping a cohabitation regime going for at least two years.

The citizens committee was a collection of academics and leading figures in the Sri Lankan civil society. The critical factor was that a certain organization which was even responsible for bringing down John Hume to the country hand picked these people. These characters would have never formed a team if not for the attempt to stabilize the dysfunctional political machine.

They were P P Devaraj, Dayan Jayatilleke, Jehan Perera, Kumar Rupesinghe, Paikiasthy Saravanamuttu, Jayadeva Uyangoda, Javid Yusuf, Kanaka Abeygunawardana and Tyrol Ferdinands. The group prepared a confidential memo and sent copies of it both to Mano Tittawella and Bradman Weerakoon. The memo reached the duo just hours before they were to meet for the first time.

The memo was prepared to give both sides a practical concept which could be applied in the process towards establishing a cohabitation government. The memo brings out this reasoning, "The recent political developments have altered the asymmetry between the UNF and PA with the President asserting her equality within the structures of government. The peace negotiations between the UNF government and the LTTE have been based and continue on a balance of power.

The recent political developments create the possibility of the UNF, LTTE and the PA being on an equal (though distinctively different) political footing with a potential for an inclusive process leading towards a sustainable settlement.

This potential can be harnessed if a structured mechanism is developed by the parties concerned. We suggest a freeze in the current political balance and division of responsibilities followed by a two-year moratorium on political confrontation between the UNF and the PA where unilateralism will not be exercised by either side and no hostile political action precipitated or taken. The MOU on the ceasefire will be maintained in its current form and negotiations continued with the LTTE".

The President and Prime Minister began to take in the advice of the committee and what ever the team recommended went from Mano-Malik to the top. The team also began to talk to both parties separately. They were consulted by Mano Tittewella from SLFP side while Bradman Weerakoon was also in close touch with them from the government side.

A break through in this committee came as Dr Ibrahim Ismail Ibrahim a senior official of the South African government was brought down. He was also involved in the peace brokerage between the ANC and F.W De Klerk's Nationalist Party in the transition of power to blacks in South Africa. Deeply respected by India, Japan and the United States Ibrahim provided a new architecture for the Mano-Malik committee to function.

His suggested approaches to negotiations came in the form of another memo sent to both parties. It said "while goodwill and enthusiasm is prevalent in the context of the deliberations of the joint committee appointed by the President and Prime Minister, there appears to be different interpretations on priorities and sequencing.

Therefore it would be advisable to explore options for a national government/structured cohabitation, and an inclusive peace process simultaneously as two distinct approaches and processes that could be complementary but not necessarily interdependent. This would enable a multi party inclusive peace process in spite of or in absence of, "national government" and/or other political arrangements connected to cohabitation."

But all these options seemed to be exhausted as first the UNF backed off from a very generous compromise offered by Chandrika Kumaratunga. Secondly and more recently the SLFP is backing off from a pragmatic set of proposals laid out by the UNF.

The question is if the SLFP talked with the JVP for over ten months why can't it talk with the UNF for longer. Vice versa if the UNF can talk and even go into illusive pacts with the LTTE why can't it talk with the SLFP. But as the astrological confidante of Chnadrika Kumaratunga said this Thursday at Sellakataragama, a huge politically significant thing is going to take place in another three days. In a so called modernized state the practice of the political arena is still in the good old days of stars and their influence on star signs.

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