The gears are still stuck in this polls campaign
By Our Political Editor
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was away in Bentota, enjoying a working holiday at a beach resort when a caller informed him last week that parliament has been dissolved.

The joke going around is that the Prime Minister is still on holiday. No doubt it is an unkind take. But, it conveys the view that the UNF has still hardly been able to react to the dissolution, in a cohesive way except to issue a few statements here and there, and that too at the behest of a few persistent press reporters.

Confronted with the idea that maybe the press is more driven about the UNF's campaign than the UNF itself, UNF insiders say yes 'the start will be difficult, but the end will be magnificent.'' With less hubris however, they say that candidates are being given 2 million each by the party to fight their campaigns, and that the party machinery is ticking.

At the time of going to press there was a massive publicity war under way by the UNF and the new alliance UPFA to paint each other as corrupt, but also the UNF was taking some comfort from the fact that the Alliance did not seem to have got onto a very good start.

Poll symbol
The earlier butterfly election symbol assigned by the Commissioner of Elections was being ditched on the grounds that it was too frivolous for a serious effort at regaining power. But at the time of going to press, there again were misgivings about the betel leaf on the grounds that the betel leaf cannot be displayed properly at election meetings because it was green -- the colour of the dreaded hated and vilified UNF. Some sections also felt that the betel leaf was too "retro'' and that it had associations with Sinhala domination, the betel leaf being chewed primarily among the villagers of the Sinhala South.

We have heard of butterflies metamorphosing from a cocooned worm -- but this seems to be the first time a butterfly is metamorphosing into a betel leaf, and then into a rabbit! But whether the betel leaf stays on or not, it was at least clear that the Alliance was not going to have a cake walk, and that it would have to face its own challenges. Minister Arumugam Thondaman, after some open and visible vacillation, finally threw in his lot with the UNF, and that was one more indication that the new Alliance cannot take for granted that it will draw fresh support from all quarters.As for the UNF, it was praying for all the mistakes that the Alliance can make.

Impeachment
Last week, as news percolated all over Colombo and was being relayed to the rest of the country too, that the Government Printer's Department had been surrounded by Defender Jeeps providing added security, there were some last ditch moves by the UNF to pull off an impeachment motion at the last moment to stop the impending dissolution of parliament. But Ranil Wickremesighe prevailed on the party to opt for elections so that "the people can decide.'' According to Wickremesinghe loyalists, the warm hearts cool heads non-confrontational strategy of the UNF (also called "decency'' by some Ranil supporters and "inability and incompetence'' by some Ranil detractors) had not worked quite well because the vociferous aggressive sections of the party were always heard over the silent majority.

According to these Ranil loyalists, by the time the cool heads and warm hearts were finally heard (they are also called the "silent majority'') the aggressive confrontational minority within the party had won the day. Just to take one example, they say that in all of the strikes that were being staged by vested interests just before the government was sent home, the demands were granted to the strikers in the end. The so called "silent majority'' within the party feel that if the demands were going to be met anyway, they should have been met at the beginning, and not after the strikers had caused immense hardship to the people by carrying on their strikes for weeks on end.

What all the events of last week did also was to bring some UNF strategists closer to the point of self analysis. Ranil Wickremesinghe may have succeeded in the peace process, but certainly they had difficulty within the UNF to work as a team. Ranil Wickremesinghe had said -- aloud -- that he wants to run the UNF in the manner of an efficient streamlined firm, of which he is the CEO. The UNF a la Microsoft with Ranil as Bill Gates.

But if one thing was certain, this did not happen. The UNF remained the old monolith, what J. R. Jayewardene had made it into, and if at all, there seemed to be even lesser inner party consensus than during the old Fox's era. Even the UNF's detractors tuned into this fact. Wimal Weerawansa is fond of saying that "this UNP is not Jaywardene's UNP or the Senanayake's UNP or Gamini Dissanayake's UNP. This is not even Premadasa's UNP. This is a UNP run by a small cabal of men according to their own whims and fancies.''

Resignation
But Ranil Wickremesinghe had at least been very keen on keeping inter party feuds contained well within the party without seeing them boil over on the outside. But last week he found some difficulty in keeping dissenting thoughts in check, after Minister Milinda Moragoda tendered his resignation from the Ministry of Economic Reforms and Science.

The fact is that some top UNFers were querying this rush to resign, and the upshot of it all. But the Prime Minister pacified the agitators. What's known now is that this has been the long planned strategy of Milinda Moragoda.

He wanted to resign before the elections and the planned day was the day of nominations. His plan was to tell the people "look, I'm starting from where I began, and coming before you as a private citizen and not a government potentate - so vote for me.'' It was much like his election strategy (some would say gimmick) of saying last time around that he is not using any plastic, or splattering the walls with posters.

But last week the President deprived him and several others of the Deputy Ministerships and Minister Moragoda thereupon advanced his plan. He sent his resignation from his Ministry to the Prime Minister, and the Prime Minister though first rather confused, accepted it after saying that it is also an opportunity to tell the President that there is still some spunk left in the UNF.

But from all accounts coming from the Moragoda camp, there was a different strategy altogether. The DLB and the NLB, the two money-spinning lotteries come under his Ministry, and he was keen that these do not fall into the hands of the President during election time, to be used for the advantage of the Alliance (UPFA) election campaign.

So, he says, he sent a letter to the President asking to resign, soon after he sent his letter to the PM. But along with his letter to the President, he asked the Prime Minister to send another letter saying Minister Choksy should be appointed instead to his post.

The President, they say, in the rush forgot all about how she could use the DLB and NLB to her advantage, and replied to the Prime Minister saying she had accepted the position that Moragoda has resigned, and Chosky should be appointed in his place. It is a "strategic coup'' exults the Moragoda camp. But his detractors are not biting. They say the man made a complete a-- of himself and that it is all with an eye on the Manapa - the war of preferences…

Rise of the Freedom Alliance
By Harinda Ranura Vidanage
Think Tanks of all major political parties began to put strategies back into drawing boards to face off another general election. An election called by the President in the name of the future of the state of Lanka. The source of confidence of President Kumaratunga came in from the newly formed political alliance in which her party was the major stake holder.

SLFP-JVP membership began a slow but gradual process of creating the necessary backward and forward integration mechanisms needed for the victory of the new alliance. They call it the FA or the Freedom Alliance. As it seems the PA will be left to die a slow death while the FA will be its successor. With most of the PA constituent parties being absorbed by the FA the PA will become the 'paralysed apparatus'.

FA will launch its election campaign from Anuradhapura in two weeks time. Four vehicle processions coming from four directions will converge on the city. All candidates of the FA will then take a public oath in the heart of the Holy city. They will pledge, "Promising a free fair election, free from violence and guaranteeing the rights of all the citizens of this country". The first electoral rally will be held subsequently in Kandy.

Lakshman Kadirgamar and D.M. Jayaratne were handed over two of the ministries President Kumaratunga took over at an event which was kept a top secret till, four and half hours before parliament was dissolved. With the dissolution the President was reported to be thinking of slashing the cabinet, but has eventually ended up with sacking the deputy and non cabinet ministers.

Minister Kadirgamar was treated for a lunch the following day after his appointment. Mangala Samaraweera invited him to his residence not just for the lunch but a rendezvous with the top hat in the JVP. This was the first time Kadirgamar had met Somawansa Amerasinghe. There were a few important figures in this Samaraweera private party including a set of top government servants who were the 'deep penetration unit' of Mangala Samaraweera operating within the UNF government structure. They were supposed to have been feeding the PA with information while serving the UNF government.

The discussion that took place between them went on for more than five hours. Kadirgamar and Amerasinghe discussed issues relating to the economy, the election and also of the media policy. Surprisingly the JVP leader has talked of a more balanced media culture. The government officials fed them with the inside information and even data and statistics needed to look forward once in control.

The whole of the party structure was informed of the dissolution plan but sans the date and time. The only people who knew the exact story were Mano Tittawella, Dr. Tara De Mel, President's Secretary W,J.S. Karunaratne, Mangala Samaraweera and Maithripala Sirisena. Apart from this lot former Elections Commissoner and ex-Defence Secretary Chandrananda Silva knew and played a key role in preparing the groundwork for the dissolution process. The former elections commissioner was behind all documentation and literature preparations for the dissolution.

But prior to taking this decision President Kumaratunga held a long discussion with a JVP delegation which went late into the night a day prior to the dissolution. Her serious concern was the power struggle that emerged between Anura Bandaranaike and Mahinda Rajapakse. But the JVP responded positively and gave their consent to changing the constitution of the alliance to accommodate two national organizers instead of one. Also they discussed the election process and after finalizing everything President had taken the ultimate decision.

The FA will go to polls demanding a mandate to change the present constitution but they are aware that they will not get the outright majority to change the Jaywardene constitution. President Kumaratunga has already drawn a plan as an alternative course of action. She has identified this as a "constitutional revolution". One of the proposals is that if the FA wins the general election, President will not summon parliament instead the elected members will convene as a constituent assembly working to change the constitution as in 1970.

But the issue is that in 1970 there was a unanimous consensus that the constitution should be changed and in the present context there are deep divisions on this issue. Also on the cards is a draconian codification similar to that of the sixth amendment to the constitution which ousted the democratically elected Tamil representatives in parliament. If there is such a move it will be a serious threat to the peace process in the country. Though a state of negative peace is established in the state this might alter fundamentals governing this condition.

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