Call
to cut funds for parties
Business leaders are expected to consider a call to freeze private
sector funding for errant politicians and political parties at a
meeting this week following the announcement of a snap general election
and the dissolution of parliament.
The
April 2 general election would also be the first to be held with
the Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act, that is meant to prevent
election giveaways and ensure fiscal discipline, in force and under
which the finance ministry has to submit a report on the state of
public finances.
The
government is most likely to miss fiscal and economic growth targets
given the disruption that usually accompanies an election and the
possibility of a new regime changing existing policies and programmes,
economists and analysts said.
"The
election will result in a slowdown in economic growth," said
Dushyanth Wijayasingha of Asia Securities. "It would hurt revenue
collection and increase expenditure. Interest rates have picked
up. This means servicing of the public debt would be that much more
expensive."
The
impact on the corporate sector would also be severe with investments
being put on hold pending the outcome of the election. "That
will affect growth in the next couple of years."
The
stock market plunged as trading opened on Monday and continued to
fall the next day with brokers saying it might penetrate the psychological
1,000-point barrier on the All Share Price Index. But it bottomed
out mid-week and managed to regain about half of its losses by week's
end.
Aid
agency officials said the political instability is likely to delay
aid because of delays in government decision-making and the time
taken for a new government to settle down and decide on their economic
policies.
World
Bank country director Peter Harrold said World Bank support for
poverty reduction would be delayed because the IMF has put off disbursing
funds for the poverty reduction programme owing to the current instability.
"Now
we'll have to wait for the outcome of the election to see who the
new government is and what it wants to do - what their economic
policy is going to be." About $176 million in World Bank aid
would be held up.
The
Joint Business Forum (J-Biz) expressed dissatisfaction over another
election saying it would disrupt corporate and economic activity
and set back the economy but their views were not shared by small
businessmen who welcomed the chance to get rid of what they said
was a corrupt regime. J-Biz chairman Mahendra Amarasuriya said the
organization had not yet discussed making a call to the private
sector to stop funding political parties but was likely to take
it up at another meeting on Wednesday.
"We
want to also indicate to political parties that we would like them
to give their policies in regard to important issues like the ceasefire,
the peace process, whether they want an open or closed economy and
education," he said.
"At
the same time we will discuss the issue of funding. There have been
various proposals that we should issue a statement that the private
sector must not fund political parties. It will be discussed on
Wednesday."
Amarasuriya
said business leaders had also been invited to meet the senior leadership
of the PA-JVP alliance on Tuesday to discuss their policies. Nihal
Abeysekera, President of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce
and Industries of Sri Lanka, said the poll was likely to disrupt
work. "Workers who go back to their villages to vote on April
2 might not be able to get back to work till after the traditional
New Year, especially if transport is disrupted by violence.
"The
month of March is one of heaviest selling months in our calendar
in view of the Sinhala and Tamil new year in mid-April. Now with
elections people will be hesitant to stock up - it means the economy
will slow down."
Foreign
aid and investment were likely to be casualties of the poll. "The
country depends on foreign aid and investment. If we don't get it,
we to need to borrow internally. That will fuel inflation."
Sarath
Uyanhewa, vice president, Small and Medium scale Industrialists
Foundation, Colombo District, said he does not agree with the view
propagated by big business that the poll will disrupt the economy.
"Nor
are we worried that it would affect foreign aid and investment,"
he said. "We must not always depend on foreign aid and loans.
Ours is a fertile country with many resources. We need to support
and develop local agriculture and industry."
He
said in many countries small and medium scale industries account
for the bulk of employment and that many small and medium businessmen
support the JVP because of their declared commitment to uplifting
local farmers and industrialists. Officials said that under the
Fiscal Management (Responsibility) Act, a pre-election Budgetary
Position report must be submitted by the finance ministry within
three weeks of the announcement of a general election to announce
the current fiscal position of the government to the public to avoid
election handouts.
The
Act however says that the finance minister must make an announcement
within one week of an announcement of an election that he has disclosed
all the known information required for the preparation of the pre-election
budgetary report. |